Why is population increasing at different rates in different nations

1
Why is population increasing at different rates
in different nations?

• Ch2, key issue 3

2
Reasons for variability

• The Demographic Transition
• Population Pyramids
• Nations in different stages of transition
• Demographic Transition and World Pop Growth

3
The Demographic Transition

• Multiple Stages of Growth
• Stages 1-4
• Nations are in different stages
• Developed Nations tend to be in later stages
• Developing nations tend to be in Stage 1 or 2
• Stages make nations allocate scarce resources
  differently

4
Stage 1 Low Growth

• High CBR, high CDR, low NIR
• Historically many nations have gone through stage
  1
• Natural Increase Rate low because of CBR and CDR
  were high but roughly equal
• Slow population growth for most of history
• Stage 1 ends with agricultural improvements

5
Reasons for Stage 1

• Poor agricultural output, medical care
• War, disease, famine raised CDR, hampered CBR
• Nomadic people had lower CBR due to mother-child
  dependency
• CBR rises as settlement occurs and food becomes
  available
• Few surplusesmarginal food supplies

6
Stage 2 High Growth

• High CBR, low CDR, high NIR
• Healthier, well fed people live longer and have
  more children
• Medical and agricultural revolutions
• More children needed for agricultural production
• Population growth is rapid
• Easier to control mortality than fertility

7
Reasons for Stage 2

• Industrial Revolution creates wealth
• Wealth improves sanitation, nutrition, hygiene
  and health care
• Industrialization fosters Agricultural
  Improvements
• Mechanization sends former farmhands to cities
• Ag, Ind, Med Revolutions lower CDR

8
Stage 3 Moderate Growth

• CBR drops closer to CDR , NIR drops
• CBR declines through industrialization, birth
  control, and urbanization
• CBR declines also as women gain socioeconomic
  status
• Even with urbanization, rural families tend to
  keep the CBR higher than CDR

9
Reasons for Stage 3

• Social change drops CBR
• Contraception allows families to have fewer
  children
• Increase in urbanization drops CBR
• Rising marriage age and education levels begin to
  lower onset of child rearing

10
Stage 4 Low Growth

• Highly developed, highly industrialized nations
• CBR and CDR about equal and very low
• Zero Population Growth
• Women enter labor force or post-sec education,
  delaying childbirth and marriage
• Ageing population

11
Reasons for Stage 4

• Low CBR and CDR, NIR close to zero
• Reason 1 women entering labor force lowers CBR,
  ageing population moves CDR up
• Reason 2 CDR rises due to neglect, CBR low
  because people of economic turmoil
• Considered final stagefor now.

12
Demographic Stages Sweden
13
World Population




http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ImagePopulation_curv
e.svg
14
Stage 5?

• Should there be a stage 5
• Negative population growth
• Reemergence of controlled disease such as
  malaria, TB
• Superbugs and other resistant infections
• Chem/Bio Warfare
• Pollution and decrease in life exp.