THE HUMAN POPULATION

1
THE HUMAN POPULATION

• Chapter 5 Chapter 6

2
Population Explosion

• gt 1800s slow growth
• 1830 1 billion Time needed to add 1
  billion
• 1930 2 billion 100 years
• 1960 3 billion 30 years
• 1975 4 billion 15 years
• 1987 5 billion 12 years
• 1999 6 billion 12 years
• 2011 7 billion (?) 12 years

For information purposes only
3
POPULATION GROWTH THROUGH HISTORY
12
11
2100
10
9
Modern
Age
Old
8
Iron
Middle
Bronze
Stone
Age
New Stone Age
Age
Ages
Age
7
Future
6
2000
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1900
1
1800
Black Death

The Plague
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1 million
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
years
2000
1000
1
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
3000
4000
5000
Source Population Reference Bureau and United
Nations, World Population Projections to 2100
(1998).
4
Major Human Ages

• Hunter-gatherer 100,000-10,000 years ago
• Agricultural Era 10,000 1700s
• Industrial Revolution
• Early mid 1700s - 1940
• Modern 1940 present

5
The world population has been growing rapidly
over the past 100 years. Why?

• Is it due to an increase in birth rate?
• Is it due to a decrease in death rate?
• Is it due to longer life expectancy?
• Is it a combination of these factors?
• The answers to this question can be found by
  studying demography. to be examined
  later

6
Glossary
Look up these terms and understand their meaning

• Define the following terms
• Birth Rate (BR)
• Death Rate (DR)
• Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)
• BR DR
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• Infant Mortality
• Life Expectancy
• Doubling time
• GNI PPP per capita and GNP
• Replacement level fertility (RLF)

7
World Economic Divisions

• Low-income countries GNI lt 766
• Middle-income countries GNI 766-9385
• High-income countries GNI gt9385
• More Developed countries (Developed)
  High-income
• Less Developed countries (Developing) Low and
  Middle income
• GNI Gross National Income

8
Two Worlds Developed World

1. 18 of world population
2. wealthy nations - use 80 of worlds resources
3. affluence over consumption
4. slow or no population growth
5. high per person environmental impact
6. I P.A.T

9
Two Worlds Developing World

1. 82 of world population
2. Low and middle-income nations - use 20 of
   worlds resources
3. 28 (1.5 billion people) of the population of
   developing world live on
4. rapid population growth
5. low per person environmental impact
6. 28 live on less than 1/day

10
World Population - 2007
  Population Size Rate of Natural Increase Total Fertility rate
World 6.6 billion 1.2 2.7
More Developed Countries 1.2 billion 0.1 1.6
Less Developed Countries 5.3 billion 1.5 2.9
Less Developed Countries (excluding China) 4.0 billion 1.8 3.3
11

• Examine the 2007 World Population Data Sheet .
  Print a copy of the 2007 Data Sheet pdf file (I
  gave you a copy of this).
• How do BR, DR, TFI, Life expectancy etc. differ
  in the More Developed and Less Developed World?

12

• 18 of the worlds population live in developed
  world, 82 in less developed world.
• 76 million people added to the world population
  per year.
• 98 of population growth is occurring in
  developing countries. Why?

13
Quality of Life Indicators

• The United Nations rates a countries Human
  Development Index (HDI) (external link) on the
  basis of the following quality of life
  indicators
• Life expectancy - living a long and healthy life
• Adult literacy rate and
• Purchasing power parity, PPP - having a decent
  standard of living (measured by, income).
• These factors gives insight into the ability of
  population to take care of itself.
• A low income society will not have the money
  (GNI) to spend on food, shelter jobs and health
  care which affects the Infant Mortality Rate and
  Life Expectancy.

14
  Basic indicators, 2007     Basic indicators, 2007     Basic indicators, 2007     Basic indicators, 2007  
  Country Infant Mortality Rate Life Expectancy Per Capita GNI (2006) US
India 54 64 3,800
Kenya 77 53 1,300 
China 25 72 7,730  
Brazil 27 72 8,800  
United States 6.5 78 44,260
Japan 2.8 82 33,730  
Ireland 3.8 78 35,540  
Examine the trend, there is no need to memorize
the numbers
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• Replacement level fertility (RLF)
• 2.03 for developed countries
• 2.16 for developing countries
• Currently
• More developed countries TFR 1.6
• Less developed countries (ex. China) TFR
  3.3

16
Examine the trend, there is no need to memorize
the numbers
  Fertility Declines in Selected Countries     Fertility Declines in Selected Countries     Fertility Declines in Selected Countries     Fertility Declines in Selected Countries  
Total fertility Rates Total fertility Rates Total fertility Rates
Country   1960   1989   2007
China 6.0 2.4 1.6  
Mexico 7.2 3.8 2.4  
Brazil 6.2 3.4 2.3  
Indonesia 5.6 3.5 2.4  
India 6.2 4.3 2.9  
17
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year
Periods
Percent increase per year
Millions
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision (medium scenario),
2005.
18
Quality of Life

• What are the effects of population growth on the
  quality of life in the developing world?
• Poverty
• Malnutrition
• Unsafe water
• Diseases
• Lack of housing
• Undermines economic growth
• Environmental degradation

Use the text to examine these factors
19
What options are available to rural poor ?

• Over-cultivation soil erosion
• Farm marginal land
• Illegal activities (poaching, drugs,
  prostitution)
• Rural to urban movement - Urban ghettos
• Emigration legal or illegal

20
Urbanization
Urbanization Largest Urban Agglomerations, 1950,
2000, 2015                                     
                                                  
                                                  
                 Source United Nations, World
Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision.
15 megacities (gt10 million) in developing world
21
The poorest of the poor

• 1.5 billion people live onlt1/day
• Lack
• adequate food
• decent housing
• jobs
• health care
• results in high infant/child mortality and low
  life expectancy
• resort to illegal activities, scavenging,
  begging, prostitution, illegal immigration
• UN Millenium Development Goals

22
Absolute Poverty

• About 1.5 billion people (about 1 person in 4)
  lives in absolute poverty
• Robert McNamara, former president of the World
  Bank defines this as
• A condition of life so limited by malnutrition,
  illiteracy, disease, squalid surroundings, high
  infant mortality, and low life expectancy as to
  be beneath any reasonable definition of human
  decency.

23
Environmental Effects

• What are the effects of population growth on the
  environment?
• Soil erosion
• Poaching
• Loss of species
• Desertification
• Air/water pollution

Examine how overpopulation affects these factors
24
Affluence

• High consumption of food, lumber, nonrenewable
  resources (minerals, oil)
• USA highest per person consumption of resources
• High pollution CO2 , hazardous air and water
  pollutants
• Impact on developing countries -tropical forests
  (lumber), minerals, oil exported.

25
Demography - Population Profile

• A population profile is a bar graph which shows
• The number or percentage of males and females at
  each age group in a population.
• Can be used to estimate the future growth of a
  population.

26
Demography

• The study of populations, their composition and
  predictions of future change.
• Demographer - a person who studies populations
  and population change over time.

27
Example
28

• Natural Increase is determined by the
  difference between birth rate and death rate.
• Population Growth is determined by the
  difference between birth rate plus immigration
  and death rate plus emigration.
• Net Migration rate - of people entering or
  leaving the population per 1000. A sign
  indicated net addition of migrants, a sign
  indicated net removal of migrants.

29

• BR 39, DR 21, Nat. Increase 2.1 ,
  Growth Rate 1.8, TFR 5.3, Net Migration
  unavailable

This population is undergoing rapid population
growth pyramid shaped profile
30

• Populations with wide bases tend to be young
  populations have a large number of people
  below age 15.
• Have great momentum for future growth as the
  large number of young will soon enter their
  reproductive years.

31

• BR 14, DR 8, Nat. Increase 0.6, Growth
  Rate 0.9, TFR 2.1, Net Migration 3

This population is undergoing slow population
growth notice the base is about the same width
as the middle section (15-65 year olds)
32

• BR 10, DR 14, Nat. Increase -0.5, Growth
  Rate -0.8, TFR 1.4, Net Migration - 4

This population is undergoing population
shrinkage or negative population growth. Notice
the base is smaller than the middle population
(15-65 year old) group.
33

• Populations with narrow bases are producing few
  young. Their TFR has been below 2.0 for several
  years.
• These populations are shrinking
• may not have enough workers to support dependants
  in the future.
• Many countries of western Europe are shrinking
  (negative percent natural increase)
• may encourage their populations to reproduce
  and/or open their borders to more immigrant
  workers.

34
Predictions vs. Projections

• In the past, demographers have been incorrect in
  their predictions.
• Fertility rates have declined faster than were
  expected.
• They now make projections low, medium, high.

Source United Nations Population Division, 2003