Potential Impacts of Climate Changes on Asia and Small Island States

1
Potential Impacts of Climate Changes on Asia and
Small Island States

• ????????05/15/95

2
Impacts on Asia (1)

• GCMs suggest that under the combined influence of
  greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosols, surface
  warming would be restricted to about 2.5C in the
  2050s and about 4C in the 2080s
• In general, projected warming over Asia is higher
  during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter than
  during summer for both time periods.
• The rise in surface air temperature is likely to
  be most pronounced over boreal Asia in all seasons

3
Impacts on Asia (2)

• relatively more pronounced increases in minimum
  temperature than in maximum temperature over Asia
  on an annual mean basis, as well as during
  winter, hence a decrease in diurnal temperature
  range (DTR)
• During summer, an increase in DTR is projected,
  suggesting that the maximum temperature would
  have more pronounced increases relative to the
  minimum temperature
• The summertime increase in DTR over central Asia
  is likely to be significantly higher relative to
  that in other regions

4
Impacts on Asia (3)

• In general, all GCMs simulate an enhanced
  hydrological cycle and an increase in
  area-averaged annual mean rainfall over Asia
• Under the combined influence of greenhouse gases
  and sulfate aerosols,the projected increase in
  precipitation is limited to about 3 and 7 in
  the 2050s and 2080s, respectively
• The projected increase in precipitation is
  greatest during NH winter for both time periods

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Impacts on Asia (4)

• The increase in annual and winter mean
  precipitation is projected to be highest in
  boreal Asia
• a decline in summer precipitation is likely over
  the central parts of arid and semi-arid Asia,
  resulting in expansion of deserts
• high uncertainty in future projections of winter
  and summer precipitation over south Asia
• Because much of tropical Asia is intrinsically
  linked with the annual monsoon cycle, a better
  understanding of the future behavior of the
  monsoon and its variability is warranted

6
Impacts on Asia (5)

• The socioeconomic environment of many countries
  in Asia is characterized by high population
  density and relatively low rates of economic
  growth
• The following risks linked to changes in climate
  and its variability for Asia are identified (
  very low confidence to very high
  confidence)
• The dangerous processes of permafrost degradation
  resulting from global warming would increase the
  vulnerability of many climate-dependent sectors
  affecting the economy in boreal Asia.

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Impacts on Asia (6)

• Surface runoff increases during spring and summer
  periods would be pronounced in boreal Asia.
• The frequency of forest fires is expected to
  increase in boreal Asia.
• The large deltas and coastal low-lying areas of
  Asia could be inundated by sea-level rise.
• The developing countries of temperate and
  tropical Asia already are quite vulnerable to
  extreme climate events such as droughts and
  floods climate change and its variability could
  exacerbate these vulnerabilities.

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Impacts on Asia (7)

• Increased precipitation intensity, particularly
  during the summer monsoon, could increase
  flood-prone areas in temperate and tropical Asia.
  There is a potential for drier conditions in arid
  and semi-arid Asia during summer, which could
  lead to more severe droughts.
• Freshwater availability is expected to be highly
  vulnerable to anticipated climate change.
• Tropical cyclones could become more intense.
  Combined with sea-level rise, this impact would
  result in enhanced risk of loss of life and
  properties in coastal low-lying areas of
  cyclone-prone countries of Asia.

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Impacts on Asia (8)

• Crop production and aquaculture would be
  threatened by a combination of thermal and water
  stresses, sea level rise, increased flooding, and
  strong winds associated with intense tropical
  cyclones.
• Warmer and wetter conditions would increase the
  potential for a higher incidence of heat-related
  and infectious diseases in tropical and temperate
  Asia.
• Climate change would exacerbate threats to
  biodiversity resulting from land-use/cover change
  and population pressure in Asia.

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Strategies on Adaptation (1)

• The first is a macro strategy that involves rapid
  development. Sustainable and equitable
  development will increase income levels,
  education, and technical skills and improve
  public food distribution, disaster preparedness
  and management, and health care systems in
  developing countries of Asia. All of these
  changes could substantially enhance social
  capital and reduce the vulnerability of these
  countries to climate change

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Strategies on Adaptation (2)

• The second strategy is a micro strategy that
  involves modifying the management of sectors that
  are most sensitive to climate change. This
  approach entails developing new institutions or
  modifying existing institutions related to these
  sectors that promote rather than discourage
  adaptation to climate change. It also involves
  modifying climate-sensitive infrastructures that
  are already planned or implemented or other
  long-term decisions that are sensitive to climate
  to incorporate the risks of climate change

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Potential Adaptation Options for Tropical Asia
(1)

• Agriculture
• Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation
• develop and promote use of high-yielding
  varieties and sustainable technological
  applications
• Water Resources
• Develop flood- and drought-control management
  systems
• reduce future developments in floodplains
• use appropriate measures for protection against
  soil erosion
• conserve groundwater supply, water impoundments,
  and efficient water resource systems

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Potential Adaptation Options for Tropical Asia
(2)

• Ecosystems and Biodiversity
• Assess risks to endemic species and ecosystems
• Introduce integrated ecosystem planning and
  management
• Reduce habitat fragmentation and promote
  development of migration corridors and buffer
  zones
• Prevent deforestation and conserve natural
  habitats in climatic transition zones inhabited
  by genetic biodiversity of potential for
  ecosystem restoration

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Potential Adaptation Options for Tropical Asia
(3)

• Coastal Resources
• Protect wetlands and allow for migration
• prepare contingency plans for migration in
  response to sea level rise
• improve emergency preparedness for weather
  extremes (e.g., cyclones and storm surges)
• evaluate coastal subsidence rates in sensitive
  coastal regions
• Common Adaptation Implement coastal zone
  management protect marine resources

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Potential Adaptation Options for Tropical Asia
(4)

• Human Health
• Build heat-resistant urban infrastructures and
  take additional measures to reduce air and water
  pollution
• Adapt technological/engineering solutions to
  prevent vector-borne diseases/epidemics
• Improve health care system, including
  surveillance, monitoring, and information
  dissemination
• Improve public education and literacy rate in
  various communities
• Increase infrastructure for waste disposal
• Improve sanitation facilities in developing
  countries

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Potential Adaptation Options for Tropical Asia
(5)

• Cross-Cutting Issues
• Continue monitoring and analysis of variability
  and trends in key climatic elements
• Improve weather forecasting systems in the region
• Improve and implement reforms on land-use
  planning
• Apply new techniques for confident projection of
  regional climate change and its variability,
  including extreme events
• Improve coordination of climate change adaptation
  activities among countries in the region
• Keep the nongovernmental organization (NGO)
  community and the public aware of developments on
  risks of climate change and involve them in
  planning, adaptation, and mitigation strategies
• Take advantage of traditional knowledge in
  planning for the future

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Impacts on Small Island States (1)

• The small island states considered here are
  located mainly in the tropics and the subtropics
• These island states span the ocean regions of the
  Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic, as well as the
  Caribbean and Mediterranean Seas
• Because of the very nature of these states, the
  ocean exerts a major influence on their physical,
  natural, and socioeconomic infrastructure and
  activities

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Impacts on Small Island States (2)

• Small island states share many common features
  that serve to increase their vulnerability to
  projected impacts of climate change
• These characteristics include their small
  physical size and the fact that they are
  surrounded by large expanses of ocean limited
  natural resources proneness to natural disasters
  and extreme events relative isolation extreme
  openness of their economies, which are highly
  sensitive to external shocks large populations
  with high growth rates and densities poorly
  developed infrastructure and limited funds,
  human resources, and skills
• These characteristics limit the capacity of small
  island states to mitigate and adapt to future
  climate and sea-level change

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Impacts on Small Island States (3)

• The most significant and immediate consequences
  for small island states are likely to be related
  to changes in sea levels, rainfall regimes, soil
  moisture budgets, and prevailing winds (speed and
  direction) and short-term variations in regional
  and local patterns of wave action
• Owing to their coastal location, the majority of
  socioeconomic activities and infrastructure and
  the population are likely to be highly vulnerable
  to the impacts of climate change and sea-level
  rise

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Impacts on Small Island States (4)

• temperatures have been increasing by as much as
  0.1C per decade, and sea level has risen by 2 mm
  yr-1 in regions in which small island states are
  located
• Analysis suggests that increases in surface air
  temperatures have been greater than global rates
  of warming (e.g., in the Pacific Ocean and the
  Caribbean Sea regions)
• for some small islands it is difficult to
  establish clear trends of sea-level change
  because of limitations of observational records,
  especially geodetic-controlled tide gauge records

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Impacts on Small Island States (5)

• Observational evidence also suggests that much of
  the variability in the rainfall record of
  Caribbean and Pacific islands appears to be
  closely related to the onset of El Niño-Southern
  Oscillation (ENSO). However, part of the
  variability in these areas also may be
  attributable to the influence of the
  Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the
  South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
• models indicate general increases in surface air
  temperature for the 2050s and 2080s and an
  increase in rainfall of about 0.3 for the 2050s
  and 0.7 for the 2080s for the Pacific region
• The diurnal temperature range is projected to
  decrease marginally for the regions of the small
  island states for both time horizons

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Impacts on Small Island States (6)

• With respect to extreme events, by the 2050s and
  2080s, there will be increased thermal stress
  during summer, as well as more frequent droughts
  and floods in all four tropical ocean regions
• This projection implies that in the future these
  regions are likely to experience floods during
  wet seasons and droughts during dry seasons
• Furthermore, warming in some regions (e.g., the
  Pacific Ocean) is likened to an El Niño pattern,
  suggesting that climate variability associated
  with the ENSO phenomenon will continue on a
  seasonal and decadal time scale. It is probable
  that such an association may dominate over any
  effects attributable to global warming

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Development, sustainability, and equity issues

• The small island states account for less than 1
  of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but are
  among the most vulnerable of all locations to the
  potential adverse effects of climate change and
  sea-level rise
• Economic development and alleviation of poverty
  constitute the single most critical concern of
  many small island states. Thus, with limited
  resources and low adaptive capacity, these
  islands face the considerable challenge of
  meeting the social and economic needs of their
  populations in a manner that is sustainable. At
  the same time, they are forced to implement
  appropriate strategies to adapt to increasing
  threats resulting from greenhouse gas forcing of
  the climate system, to which they contribute
  little

24
Sea-level rise

• it is projected that sea level will rise by as
  much as 5 mm yr-1 over the next 100 years as a
  result of GHG-induced global warming. This change
  in sea level will have serious consequences for
  the social and economic development of many small
  island states
• For some islands, the most serious consideration
  will be whether they will have adequate potential
  to adapt to sea-level rise within their own
  national boundaries

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Beach and coastal changes

• Most coastal changes currently experienced in the
  small island states are attributable to human
  activity. With the projected increase in sea
  level over the next 50100 years superimposed on
  further shoreline development, however, the
  coastal assets of these states will be further
  stressed
• This added stress, in turn, will increase the
  vulnerability of coastal environments by reducing
  natural resilience, while increasing the economic
  and social costs of adaptation

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Biological systems (1)

• Coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds, which
  provide the economic foundation for many small
  islands, often rely on stable coastal
  environments to sustain themselves
• Although it is acknowledged that human-induced
  stresses are contributing to their degradation,
  these systems will be adversely affected by
  rising air temperature and sea levels
• In most small islands, coral reefs already are
  undergoing great stress from episodic warming of
  the sea surface, causing widespread bleaching

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Biological systems (2)

• Mangroveswhich are common on low-energy,
  nutrient/sedimentrich coasts and embayments in
  the tropicshave been altered by human
  activities. Changes in sea levels are likely to
  affect landward and longshore migration of
  remnants of mangrove forests, which provide some
  protection for the coasts and backshore
  infrastructure
• It is projected that changes in the availability
  of sediment supply, coupled with increases in
  temperature and water depth as a consequence of
  sea-level rise, will adversely impact the
  productivity and physiological functions of
  seagrasses
• Consequently, this would have a negative
  downstream effect on fish populations that feed
  on these communities

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Biodiversity

• It is estimated that 33 of known threatened
  plants are island endemics, and 23 of bird
  species found on islands also are threatened
• Although there is still some uncertainty about
  precisely how and to what extent biodiversity and
  wildlife in small islands will be affected,
  available projections suggest that climate change
  and sea-level rise will cause unfavorable shifts
  in biotic composition and adversely affect
  competition among some species

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Water resources, agriculture, and fisheries (1)

• The availability of water resources and food
  remain critical concerns in island communities
• In many countries, water already is in short
  supply because islands (many of which are
  drought-prone) rely heavily on rainwater from
  small catchments or limited freshwater lenses
• Arable land for crop agriculture often is in
  short supply thus, the likely prospect of land
  loss and soil salinization as a consequence of
  climate change and sea-level rise will threaten
  the sustainability of both subsistence and
  commercial agriculture in these islands

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Water resources, agriculture, and fisheries (2)

• Because water resources and agriculture are so
  climate sensitive, it is expected that these
  sectors also will be adversely affected by future
  climate and sea-level change
• Although climate change is not expected to have a
  significant impact on world fisheries output, it
  is projected to have a severe impact on the
  abundance and distribution of reef fish
  population on the islands

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Human health, settlement and infrastructure, and
tourism (1)

• Human health is a major concern in many tropical
  islands, which currently are experiencing a high
  incidence of vectorand water-borne diseases
• This is attributable partly to changes in
  temperature and rainfall, which may be linked to
  the ENSO phenomenon, and partly to changes in the
  patterns of droughts and floods
• Climate extremes also place a huge burden on
  human welfare this burden is likely to increase
  in the future
• Almost all settlements, socioeconomic
  infrastructure, and activities such as tourism in
  many island states are located at or near coastal
  areas. Their location alone renders them highly
  vulnerable to future climate change and sea-level
  rise

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Human health, settlement and infrastructure, and
tourism (2)

• Tourism is a major revenue earner and generates
  significant employment in many small islands.
  Changes in temperature and rainfall regimes, as
  well as loss of beaches, could be devastating for
  the economies that rely on this sector
• Because climate change and sea-level rise are
  inevitable in the future, it is vital that beach
  and coastal assets in the small island states are
  managed wisely
• Integrated coastal management has been identified
  and proposed as an effective framework for
  accomplishing this goal

33
Sociocultural and traditional assets

• Other island assets, such as know-how and
  traditional skills (technologies), are under
  threat from climate change and sea-level rise
• In some societies, community structures and
  assets such as important traditional sites of
  worship, ritual, and ceremonyparticularly those
  at or near the coastscould be adversely affected
  by future climate change and sea-level rise

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Needs for Adaptation (1)

• global assessments have consistently identified
  the small island states as one of the most
  high-risk areas, irrespective of methodology
  employed. This evidently robust finding must be
  of considerable concern to these states
• It is further established that climate change is
  inevitable as a result of past GHG emissions and
  that small islands are likely to suffer
  disproportionately from the enhanced effects of
  climate change and sea-level rise
• Hence, identification and implementation of
  effective adaptation measures and avoidance of
  maladaptation ( i.e., measures that increase
  exposure rather than decrease vulnerability) are
  critical for small islands, even if there is
  swift implementation of any global agreement to
  reduce future emissions

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Needs for Adaptation (2)

• For most small islands, the reality of climate
  change is just one of many serious challenges
  with which they are confronted. Such pressing
  socioeconomic concerns as poverty alleviation
  high unemployment and the improvement of
  housing, education, and health care facilities
  all compete for the slender resources available
  to these countries
• In these circumstances, progress in adaptation to
  climate change almost certainly will require
  integration of appropriate risk reduction
  strategies with other sectoral policy initiatives
  in areas such as sustainable development
  planning, disaster prevention and management,
  integrated coastal management, and health care
  planning

36
Understanding El Niño Can Help Adaptation to
Climate Change (1)

• There is evidence of an association between El
  Niño and epidemics of vector-borne diseases such
  as malaria and dengue in some areas where El Niño
  affects the climate (Kovats et al., 1999)
• Malaria transmission in unstable areas is
  particularly sensitive to changes in climate
  conditions, such as warming or heavy rainfall
  (Akhtar and McMichael, 1996 Gupta, 1996 Najera
  et al., 1998)
• In Venezuela and Colombia, malaria morbidity and
  mortality increases in the year following the
  onset of El Niño (Bouma and Dye, 1997 Bouma et
  al., 1997b Poveda et al., 2000)

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Understanding El Niño Can Help Adaptation to
Climate Change (2)

• ENSO also has been shown to affect dengue
  transmission in some Pacific islands (Hales et
  al., 1999b), though not in Thailand (Hay et al.,
  2000)
• However, in many of the studies that have found a
  relationship between El Niño and disease, the
  specific climate drivers or mechanisms have not
  been determined
• There also are other climate oscillations that
  are less well studied
• Furthermore, there are other important
  explanations of cyclic epidemics, such as changes
  in herd immunity (Hay et al., 2000)

38
Understanding El Niño Can Help Adaptation to
Climate Change (3)

• The ENSO phenomenon provides opportunities for
  early warning of extreme weather, which could
  improve epidemic preparedness in the future
• Seasonal forecasting methods and information have
  the potential to be used to far greater effect by
  the health sector (IRI, 1999 Kovats et al.,
  1999)
• In addition to these direct applications,
  attention to the impacts of interannual climate
  variability associated with the ENSO phenomenon
  would help countries develop the necessary
  capacity and preparedness to address longer term
  impacts associated with global climate change
  (Hales et al., 2000). On the other hand, there
  are limitations to using ENSO interannual climate
  variability to assess potential impacts of
  long-term climate change