Title: Climate Change Science, Policy Options and Opportunities for University Environmental Managers
1Climate ChangeScience, Policy Options and
Opportunities for University Environmental
Managers
- presented by
- Gordon Evans
- Environmental Manager
- The Texas AM University System
25rd CUHWC Ithaca, New York August 2007
2What is the bother?
- Not mere climate change, but the high rate of
change (challenge for adaptation). - If man is much of the recent cause, will others
be affected disproportionately? - Can it be slowed?
- How?
- In what time frame?
- At what cost?
- What should we do?
- Personally
- As a university
- As a state, nation and world
31975
42007
5This Is Not About an Energy Shortage
The world will eventually leave the age of oil,
but there is no geologic reason for this to
happen until near the end of the 21st century.
- World oil reserves at least 100 years
- World coal reserves at least 350 years
- If we can find it, it will burn.
David Deming, University of Oklahoma. 2003. Are
We Running Out of Oil? Policy Backgrounder, No.
159, January 29, 2003. http//www.ncpa.org/pub/bg/
bg159/
6Energy How We Have Benefited
- The last century's consumption of oil, coal, and
gas has - Raised living standards throughout the world
- Driven malnourishment to an all-time low
- Doubled global life expectancy
- Pushed most rates of disease into decline
723.5º N
0º
Images from NASA at http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/v
iew_rec.php?vev1id5826
8China
North Korea
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
Hong Kong
9Russia
China
Vladivostok
North Korea
Pyongyang
South Korea
Seoul
Japan
10The U.S. Leads the Way
- Climate change and related research (e.g.,
effects of change) has become one of the
best-funded areas of science. - Despite claims that the U.S. is the major
culprit in the so-called climate catastrophe,
we are also the dominant leader and funder of the
research. - In the U.S. alone, this amounts to gt 4 billion /
yr.
11Some of Todays Themes
- A question of balance
- The past remember
- Errors in modern science paleoclimate clues
(there is nothing new under the sun) - The future the trouble with prophesies
- The unknowable future extrapolation errors
dependence on models earths complexity
12Some of Todays Themes
- Fear not
- Life is change
- Guilt and repentance
- American consumerism lessons learned (and
unlearned) carbon emissions history - The good and faithful steward
- What can we do (you, higher education, the U.S.,
the world)?
13A question of balance
Environmentalist religion and its priesthood -
Errors of logic - Buzzwords
- The cult of
- consumerism
- development
- Paid skeptics
- Libertines
- A clash of world views
- Climate change is neither right nor left
- Response a matter of conscience
14EnvironmentalGrand Narratives
- Stories a culture tells itself about its
practices and beliefs - Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)
- The unifying grand narrative
- Poster child of the environmentalist movement /
religion - Not to deny that man is affecting climate, but
one need not accept the world view underlying
the advocacy
15True BelieversWord Choices
- Unprecedented
- Irreversible
- Forever
- Crisis
- Urgent
- Tipping point
- Runaway
- Catastrophe
16Tools of Persuasion
- Images and stories
- Logical fallacies
- Parade of horribles appeal by listing extremely
undesirable, but unlikely, events. - Argumentum ad populum (Latin "appeal to the
people") if many believe, it is so. - Appeal to emotion manipulate the recipient's
emotions. - Think of (the children the polar bears
New Orleans)." - Argumentum ad infinitum / ad nauseam repeat an
idea until nobody cares to refute it anymore,
then call it true.
17Common AGW Fallacies
- Glacier retreat
- Polar bears
- Polar ice fluctuations
- Calving glaciers
- Ice shelf breakups
- Sea level rise
- Future generations
18Glacial Retreat (Recession) McCarty Glacier,
Alaska
- But when did the retreat occur relative to human
effects (post-1975)?
Photos courtesy National Snow and Ice Data
Center / World Data Center for Glaciology Boulder
(NSIDC/WDC) http//www-nsidc.colorado.edu/data/gla
cier_photo/index.html
19Greenlands Jakobshavn Glacier Recession
(1850-2004)
- NASA has constructed this helpful (?)
illustration.
Illustration courtesy NASA/Goddard Space Flight
Center - Scientific Visualization Studio
20Greenlands Jakobshavn Glacier Recession
(1850-2004)
21Polar Bears
- Polar bears have always been swimmers, and
population studies show generally stable or
increasing numbers - If threatened by warmth, how did the bears
survive the Medieval Warm Period, Holocene
Climate Optimum and the Eemian Interglacial
occurring 1,000 and 10,000 and 125,000 years ago?
22Arctic Ice Cap
- Ice fluctuates year-to-year based on natural
cycles. - Ice caps have ALWAYS varied, only now we can see
it. - Arctic ice was declining long before late 20th
century human effects.
23Glaciers Calving
- Glaciers have always calved at the sea.
- It is seasonal and as common as falling leaves.
- For decades, people have traveled to see this
wonder of the natural world. - Only now everyone has access to video, Internet,
and cable to see it for themselves.
Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska
24Ice Shelf Breakups
Latitude 67 30 S
25Ice Shelf Breakups
- There have been many breakups since 1900, when
ice shelves were first discovered. - Before then, no one knows.
- Lost forever? If only 3,000 years old, then
others will form when Earth cools again.
26Florida after a 3 Meter Sea Level Rise
- IPCC and recent data project a 0.3 meter rise
over the next 100 years - Only 1/10 of the impact shown here.
- Mostly due to ocean thermal expansion.
27Weather Channel
- Selling a product, so make weather exciting
- Storm Stories (weather happens)
- It Could Happen Tomorrow (if pigs could fly)
- The Climate Code (a la The DaVinci Code)
- 100 Biggest Weather Moments (hosted by musician,
Harry Connick, Jr. ) - Its entertainment!
28Fun with Graphs
29A Different Time
- The rate of increase in years 80-61 was 0.017
C/yr. - Since 30 years ago, the rate has again been the
same.
30- Since T began to rise again (1980-2000), the rate
has been about the same (0.016 C/yr) as before.
- Thus, even for the period of measurements, the
present rate is not unprecedented. - At a constant rate, we would expect 1.6 C by the
year 2100, IPCCs low end projection. - But T does not always increase. If the future is
similar, the 1860-2006 rate would raise T only
0.6 C by 2100.
31The Real Global Temperature
Upper limit of past global temperature from
paleoclimate reconstructions
- Al Gore says, The planet has a fever.
- When plotted on a temperature scale of the
earths life range (0 - 25C), Mr. Gores
analogy is meaningless.
Freezing point of water
32Errors of Extrapolation
33Making Too Muchof Too Little
- With regard to recent (30 yrs) of Antarctic
cooling The lesson here is that changes
observed over very short time intervals do not
provide a reliable picture of how the climate is
changing. - by Eric Steig, isotope geochemist, and
- Gavin Schmidt, climate modeler,
- on http//www.realclimate.org/index.php?p18
- Then how should one explain alarmism based on the
same 30 years of late 20th century global
temperature data? - According to Steig and Schmidt, we should
speculate about neither.
34Finite Man and the Limits of Science
- Yucca Mountain Project (YMP)
- Money spent gt6 billion (2007 budget ? 500 M/yr)
- Studied gt30 yrs
- Scientists and Engineers gt3,000 FTE
- YMP Area 1,500 acres
- What do we know? Little for sure
- Little experimental data
- Model projections use worst-case estimates.
- Lesson
- For all of the effort, the future of a mere speck
eludes us. - How confident are we of our 100 year climate
projections?
35The Past Remember
- Past mistakes errors of modern science
- Paleoclimate clues nothing new under the sun
36Consensus Science Has Been Wrong Before
- Smokey Bear said, Only you can prevent forest
fires. Now we know our folly. - Heart stints prevent heart attacks. Recent
evidence says, No. - Vioxx is safe. Well, maybe not.
- Milk is bad. No, milk is good.
- Eat carbs / dont eat carbs. Eat meat / dont
eat meat. - Depletion of natural resources by name a date
(didnt happen) - Massive species extinctions by name a date
(didnt happen)
37Consensus Science Has Been Wrong Before
- Acid rain the disaster that wasnt
- Ozone hole did we cause it or merely observe
it? Did we solve a non-problem? - Rampant cancers from manmade chemicals? Never
happened. - DDT will wipe out birds. No, but uncontrolled
mosquitoes are killing millions of Africans. - The list goes on.
38Unprecedented?Paleoclimate (Earths Past)
- Mid-Cretaceous Period (ca. 120 to 90 Million
Years Ago) - Distinctly warmer than today, particularly at
high latitudes - CO2 gt2x to 4x today
- Eemian Interglacial Period (ca. 125,000 Years
Ago) - 1-2C warmer than today, with poles 3-5C higher
- Sea levels 4-6 meters (13-20 ft) higher than today
39Temperature varies, CO2 follows
Vostok is located in Antarctica
CO2
Penultimate (Eemian) Interglacial
Temp
40Another Look at the Previous Graph
- Many abrupt changes of 2-4C in less than a
century - Our present interglacial has been long,
suggesting - Temperatures could be much higher than they are.
- Warmth and sea level rise are less than the last
interglacial. - Currently, we naturally expect continued
recession of glaciers and polar ice, even without
humans. - Abrupt cooling could begin at almost any time.
41Unprecedented?Paleoclimate (Earths Past)
- Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum (ca. 6,000 Years
Ago) - Warmer than today by 2-4C, at least in northern
summers - Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1,000 years ago,
10th-12th centuries) - Peak temperatures, lasting more than 100 years,
were as high as the 20th century prior to 1985.
42Mid-Holocene Warm Period (Climatic Optimum, 6000
BC)
43Medieval Warm Period
Most 20th century warming has been considered to
be good. In the 1970s, scientists were lamenting
a possible decline in global temperature.
44The Current Interglacial Has Seen the Advent of
Human Civilization, so ...
45Climate Activists in Chicago
18,000 BC
GO Cubbies!
46Climate Activists
130,000 BC
GO Cubbies!
47Conclusions from Paleoclimate
- CO2 and temperature vary together, but which
causes which? - Higher T causes higher CO2, up to 20 ppm / C
- T alone could raise current CO2 to gt300 ppm
- CO2 greenhouse acts as a positive feedback
- Natural climate has been warmer than now.
- Natural climate has changed abruptly (in 5-40 yr)
and violently (4-8C) many times.
48Conclusions from Paleoclimate
- Based on the past, we can expect a return to the
Ice Age norm. - Todays changing climate is not unprecedented.
- What is different now, and should it matter?
- Very recent (last 30 years) warmth appears to
have a strong human influence. - It matters only if we think that it merits
control to slow the warming.
49Is it our fault?Let the climate scientists speak.
50Where Do We Get the Data?
- Ancient (millions of years)
- Medieval (1000s of years)
- Recent (150 years)
- Modern Times (40 years)
- proxies (tree rings, sediment / ice cores,
isotopes, astronomy) - proxies observation (e.g., sunspots)
- proxies observation direct measurements
- proxies observation direct measurements
satellites
51Levels of Knowledge of Causes of Climate Change
- Level 1 Simple correlation
- Level 2 Plausible physical mechanism
- Level 3 Demonstration of viability from simple
models - Level 4 Simulation of role in fully complex
climate system
Increasing confidence
52What Drives Climate?Natural Drivers
- Driver Level of Knowledge
- Direct solar output 1,2,3,4
- Cosmic rays 1,2
- Orbital variations 1,2,3
- Plate tectonics 1,2,3,4
- Volcanic activity 1,2,3,4
53What Drives Climate?Natural Drivers
- Driver Level of Knowledge
- Direct solar output 1,2,3,4
- Cosmic rays 1,2
- Orbital variations 1,2,3
- Plate tectonics 1,2,3,4
- Volcanic activity 1,2,3,4
54What Drives Climate?Natural Drivers
- Driver Level of Knowledge
- Direct solar output 1,2,3,4
- Cosmic rays 1,2
- Orbital variations 1,2,3
- Plate tectonics 1,2,3,4
- Volcanic activity 1,2,3,4
55What Drives Climate?Natural Drivers
- Driver Level of Knowledge
- Direct solar output 1,2,3,4
- Cosmic rays 1,2
- Orbital variations 1,2,3
- Plate tectonics 1,2,3,4
- Volcanic activity 1,2,3,4
56What Drives Climate?Natural Drivers
- Driver Level of Knowledge
- Direct solar output 1,2,3,4
- Cosmic rays 1,2
- Orbital variations 1,2,3
- Plate tectonics 1,2,3,4
- Volcanic activity 1,2,3,4
57What Drives Climate? and - Feedbacks
- Driver Level of Knowledge
- Snow and ice 1,2,3,4
- Vegetation cover 1,2,3,4
- Greenhouse gases
- Water vapor (major) 1,2,3,4
- Other (minor, such as CO2)1,2,3,4
58What Drives Climate?UN-Natural Drivers
- Driver Level of Knowledge
- Land use 1,2,3,4
- Aerosols (small particles) 1,2,3
- Greenhouse gases 1,2,3,4
59Attributing Causes to Recent Climate Changes
- Figure out whats happened to climate
- Figure out whats happened to drivers
- Worry about natural variability
- Find unique patterns in data
- Plug drivers into models, reproduce climate
60Noticeable human influence after 1980
Pre-1980, mostly natural warming
Source http//www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image
Climate_Change_Attribution_png
61Estimating Future Climate Change
- UN IPCC projections use storylines
- Natural drivers uncontrollable and
unpredictable - Unnatural drivers Economic / social trends and
energy mix, without controls - Plug drivers into models, see what happens
62IPCC Multi-model Averages for Various Storylines
3.6 C w/ Rampant growth
0.6 C w/ No CO2 increase
Source IPCC AR4 Working Group 1 SPM
http//www.ipcc.ch
63Temperature in the Life Zone
25
Cretaceous Era Temperature (25C)
14
Global Average Temperature (C)
Estimate of Lowest Ice Age Temperature
0
64The CO2 Story
65Where Does CO2 It Come From?
- 97 of emissions are natural
- The growth rate of human emissions has begun to
slow since 1973, EXCEPT - China, India and Pacific Rim
66AnthropogenicCO2 Emissions by Sector
Power Stations
Industrial Processes
29.5
20.6
Fossil fuel retrieval, processing and distribution
Transportation Fuels
8.4
19.2
9.1
Land use and biomass burning
12.9
Residential, commercial and other sources
Source http//www.globalwarmingart.com/
(72 of Total Human GHGs)
67U.S. Carbon Emissions
http//cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis_mon/stateemis/gr
aphics/graphics.html
- U.S. emissions (total and per capita) peaked
after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. - Total was flat for 15 years, but has since
increased - Per capita declined for 10 years, increased a bit
during the Soviet arms race, but is flat since
the late-80s.
68U.S. Carbon Emissions
- With per capita emissions steady, recent
increases directly due to - Population increases and
- Increasing consumerism
- More than offsetting efficiency improvements.
69Immigration and CO2
- Immigrants and their recent offspring now account
for nearly 90 of U.S. population growth - About 50 of that growth is due to illegal
immigration - Energy use from population growth is far
outpacing our gains in efficiency
Projections and graph courtesy Population
Environment Balance, Sources U.S. Census
Bureau2 Statistical Yearbook40, Bureau of
Citizenship and Immigration ServicesAverage
195,000 per year from 1921-1970
70Per Capita Differences Among States
- Texas is a major exporter of electricity,
petroleum and petrochemical products. - California is a heavy importer from other states.
71World Carbon Dioxide Trends
North America
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Source Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1995
Germany
72All of Europe
North America
North America
Eastern Europe
W. Europe plus Germany
Western Europe
Source Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1995
Germany
73The rest of the worldWhere is the rapid growth?
These two include China, India, Japan Taiwan
Centrally Planned Asia
Far East
Oceania
Cen. S. America
Middle East
Africa
74CO2 and World Events
The Torching of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein, the
worlds 1 worst environmental criminal (Feb 1991)
Middle East
75CO2 and World Events
Reagans 1st Inauguration (Jan 1981)
Fall of the Berlin Wall (Nov 1989)
Soviet Union Collapses (1991)
North America
Eastern Europe
Arms Race
Western Europe
Europe stagnates
76CO2 and World Events
Kyoto CO2 Emissions Baseline Year 1990
Eastern Europe Emissions Drop 36 due to
Americas Cold War Victory
- Ronald Reagan wrt CO2, the worlds greatest
environmental hero. - Combined U.S.-former USSR emissions are still
below 1980s levels.
77World Carbon Dioxide Trends
- In 2006, China surpassed the U.S in total CO2
emissions - Chinas emissions growth rate far exceeds the U.S.
2006
78Uncertainties in Climate Projections
- Tools?
- Simple extrapolation from real-world data
- Global circulation models (GCMs)
- Economic development projections (energy demand)
- Projections of future energy / technology mix
- Using todays tools to project the next 100 years
- What is likely to happen?
- What is possible but unlikely?
- What is very unlikely to happen?
79IPCC (U.N.) Scenarios
- Best storylines subtly incorporate a global
socialist model under the guise of
sustainability - Mass redistribution of wealth
- Forced social programs
- Loss of individual freedoms
- Strengthened world government and denigration
of U.S.-style representative democracy - All storylines assume NO climate-change
initiatives are undertaken (very unlikely)
80Climate Sensitivity to CO2
- Not a projection, climate sensitivity is an
estimate of warming following a doubling of
carbon dioxide concentrations. - IPCC says it is likely to be about 3C 1.5C.
- Estimates based on models tuned to data,
paleoclimate reconstructions, and assumed
forcings.
81Radiative Forcing Uncertainties
- Omits water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas.
- Solar irradiance is not the only or best measure
of the suns influence.
- Recent solar research suggests that the IPCC
solar estimate may be low. - Higher solar means lower CO2.
82Climate Sensitivity to CO2
- Question If CO2 is the causal factor, how long
before CO2 doubles? - Based on recent trends, CO2 will double the
pre-industrial level of 280 ppm in about the year
2,200 AD. - Most projections extend to only 2,100 AD, at
which time T would increase 1C from present. - Changes in solar activity and its effect on
climate are still debated. As the sun gains
importance, CO2 must lose importance.
83Regional-Scale Changes
- Caution Models are not effective at
regional-scale climate - Climate is more than just average temperature or
precipitation
84Adapting in Texas Cities
- The 2090-2099 change would be equivalent to
present-day urban heat islands (UHI) compared to
rural areas.
2090-2099
To adapt, cities could adopt UHI control
strategies to partly offset the effects.
?3C (5.4F)
85If the World Acts Reasonably with Climate
Change Initiatives
- 2090-2099 Expect to shave about 1-1.5C locally
from IPCCs business as usual storyline
?2-3C (3.6-5.4F)
86The Energy Conservation vs. Efficiency Debate
- Efforts to increase efficiency have helped,
- But, absolute consumption continues to rise.
- Efficiency alone will not lower consumption.
- Nothing short of dramatic changes in behavior and
social values are needed. - Rick Diamond, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory - Et al.
87Residential Energy Use
- Population growth dominates the graph (21).
- 1978-82 Rapid early gains from improved
efficiency and muted consumption. - 1982-86 Flat performance due to economic
recession. - Since 1986 Wealth and population growth
overtake efficiency.
88U.S. House Size 1950-2000
1960
- Housing reflects broader trends in consumption.
- House size has doubled since 1960 as the number
of persons per household has dwindled. - Does not account for conditioned volume
89The Cleavers (1957-63)
- Ward Cleaver, Executive (possibly Sr. Engineer)
- Salary ? 13,000/yr in 1957 (90,000/yr in 2007
). - The Cleaver House
- 3 BR, 2-story
- Cleavers owned one car
- Plymouth Fury, fuel economy 18 mpg
90- How Much Can We Achieve by Conservation Alone?
(Reduced consumerism / societal change) - Strong nuclear families
- Saving vs. credit
- Lower expectations (home size, smaller and fewer
cars, fewer luxury amenities and services, eat at
home) - Maybe 20 ???
91Global warming.
92Some say irreversible consequences are 30 years
away.
30 years?
That wont affect me.
93(No Transcript)
94Priorities Todays Problems or Tomorrows
Maybes?
- U.N.s World Health Report
- Copenhagen Consensus
Theres still time.Fight global warming
But what about those who suffer TODAY?
95Whose Rainfall Might Be Adversely Affected?The
10/40 Window
- 82 of the poorest of the world's poor (per
capita GDP less than US500 per year) - 84 of those with lowest quality of life (life
expectancy, infant mortality, and literacy) - Population (non-Christian) ? 2 billion
96Copenhagen Consensus
97A False Dichotomy?
- Care for the poor need not conflict with prudent
responses to climate. - We can address many issues together.
- Living small can free funds for the less
fortunate. - Economic efficiency, cost-effectiveness and
environmental protection can co- exist
98What Economists Say
- Economists modeling climate effects vs. control
costs urge modest 1st steps - Small carbon tax on the order of 1-4 per ton
- Worldwide carbon trading
- Participation by ALL countries
99How Far and How Fast?
- Should humanity take any action to limit GHG
emissions? - The fundamental question is, What do you
believe? - Is change accelerating or staying the same?
- How fast will temperature rise?
- How far will it rise?
- How helpful or damaging will the results be?
- How does this stack up against other local,
state, national and world problems?
100How Far and How Fast?
- Your answers (taken on informed faith) will
affect the scope and timing of extraordinary
actions, IF ANY! - If you believe in modest temperature changes,
based on - Data 19th-20th century and recent (25 yr) trends
project 0.6 to 1.6C by 2100 AD, - Then little action needed.
101How Far and How Fast?
- If you believe in moderate temperature changes,
based on - Low to mid-range model projections Expect 1.5
to 3.5C by 2100 AD - Then mitigate by moderate actions
102How Far and How Fast?
- If you believe in large temperature changes,
based on - Mid to high-range model projections Expect
gt4.0C by 2100 AD, based on model projections
with very low probability of occurrence. - Then dramatic action would be needed to stabilize
emissions within 50 years.
103What To Do?
- 1st, Remember
- Energy prosperity and health (remember N. Korea
vs. S. Korea) - While the U.S. leads other countries except China
in CO2 emissions, and has one of the highest per
capita emission rates, the U.S. economy is also
unparalleled in productivity and prosperity. - The U.S. began to tame the CO2 beast 30 years
ago, having turned the tide after the 1973 Arab
oil embargo. - Together, U.S. former Soviet emissions are
below 1980s levels.
104What To Do?
- 1st, Remember (continued)
- The U.S. leads the world in climate-change
research and alternate energy research and
development. - Drastic technologically driven cuts (electric
generation transportation sectors) will take
Trillions and many decades! - Most U.S. emissions growth is directly tied to
population growth, and 90 of population growth
is immigration, much of it illegal. - Drastic personal conservation could cut U.S.
emissions 20 (down to 1970 level) IF immigration
is controlled.
105What Can YOU Do?
- 2nd, Conserve makes economic and moral sense
- BUT, for measurable effect, American culture
would face major moral, social and material
consumption changes. For example - Stop immigration
- Live small (homes, cars, luxuries)
- Increase savings and investment
- Give to international charity
- Marry early strive for stable family life
- Largest quick change available to us is our
choice of automobile - Simply changing light bulbs just wont do
106What To Do?
- 3rd, for modest change believers, conservation
may be enough, alongside the normal course of
developing and deploying innovations and
technology, or - For high change believers, support aggressive
carbon trading, consumption taxes, and
accelerated government/industry development and
deployment of technologies
107What Should We Do?
108What Should We Do?
- Possible actions
- Economists and climate science suggests modest C
emissions controls initially. - Take the sensible path to conservation to save
and emissions. - Public education and accountability
- Institutional change
- Set national energy policy based on
- 1st energy security and
- 2nd risk of climate effects.
109What CouldHigher Education Do?
- Learn what science says and decide
- Is earth warming?
- Is it unprecedented?
- Is it natural and/or human influenced?
- How severe is it likely to be (modest, midrange,
high)?
110AM Climate Change Statement
- We agree with the recent reports of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that - It is virtually certain that the climate is
warming, and that it has warmed by about 0.7 deg.
C over the last 100 years. - It is very likely that humans are responsible for
most of the recent warming. - If we do nothing to reduce our emissions of
greenhouse gases, future warming will likely be
at least two degrees Celsius over the next
century. - Such a climate change brings with it a risk of
serious adverse impacts on our environment and
society. - Unanimously agreed, tenured and tenure-track
faculty - Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas AM
University
111What CouldHigher Education Do?
- Existing infrastructure
- Economical energy conservation measures (e.g.,
lighting retrofits refined HVAC controls on
buildings all already being done) - New construction
- Design and build to latest Green Building (LEED)
standards - Long range planning
- In infrastructure development, anticipate
adaptation to future climate - Alternate energy
- Evaluate the outlook for candidate technologies
112What CouldHigher Education Do?
- Personal behavior
- Modify building systems and cost-accounting for
personal / departmental energy accountability - Change transit and student policy (e.g.,
dormitory utiity use student autos enhanced
bike, pedestrian and public transit) - More aggressively highlight and market campus
energy conservation programs - Add home economics and personal finance to core
curriculum - Research Engage academia in relevant research
- Outreach Educate the public through extension
113Prospects for Alternative Energy
- Renewables
- Wind the not for profit charity
- Cannot meet large part of demand
- Requires duplicate standby generation capacity
due to wind variability and load management - DOE goal of 5 by 2020
- gt30 yrs for full deployment
- Biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel, biomass)
- Marginal outlook (MAX 5 of demand and major
ecological disruption likely 1 of demand) - 30 yrs for full deployment
- Solar industrial scale not yet competitive
114Prospects for Alternative Energy
- Clean coal (carbon sequestration FutureGen)
- 10 yr to demonstrate
- 30-50 yrs to fully deploy
- Nuclear
- Now 104 reactors in the U.S., the last built in
1996 - Currently 30 license applications (lt3 of current
total generation capacity) - 10-20 yrs to come on-line
- Other fusion, hydrogen
- Early stage development
- Not for the foreseeable future
115Wind generation potential is FAR from the areas
demanding it
U.S. Wind Resources
116As the Wind Blows(Instability in a Stable Grid)
- Wind generation is both variable and intermittent
- 1 MW wind generation capacity is only credited
with 0.1 to 0.2 MW of capacity credit - (TX ERCOT is proposing only 0.02 capacity credit)
- Actual GHG reductions are minimal not fully
realized
Wind generated electricity in Western Denmark,
May 2002
a substantial part of the theoretical CO2 saving
does not accrue in practice. In some
circumstances there may be only minimal benefit.
11711
- Because of winds capacity credit of essentially
zero, - every new MW of installed wind generation
capacity must be matched by installation of equal
conventional capacity - Thus, wind energy should be viewed as a public,
not for profit, charity with the sole benefit of
CO2 emissions reductions
118Impact of Full-Scale Wind Energy
This is just a toy (only 15 units)
Picture 3,000 to 5,000 as the equivalent of one
typical power plant!
- What you never see
- Full-scale projects and their sheer magnitude
- The complex of access roads and the aboveground
transmission grid - Emphasis on spotty performance, requiring
available back-up plants, since electricity is
not storable
119Ah, the pastoral Welsh countryside
- Picture this times 100 !
- But it may beat the heat.
120Impacts
- Aesthetic
- Visual nuisance
- Day - Impaired vistas
- Night strobe lights
- Noise (need 1-2 mi. setback)
- Shadow flicker
- Reflections
- Ecological
- Microclimate higher surface wind, temperature
and evaporation - Habitat disruption (clearing, 4 acres/turbine
35 to 65 acres for infrastructure) - Bird kills
- Other
- Signal disruption
121Elk River (Kansas) industrial wind facility
before and after photos.
122- A Texas goal of 10,000 MW (only 8 of state
generating capacity) in wind energy would require
an area of 5,000 sq. mi. - The Texas Panhandle from Dumas to the Oklahoma
border. - Assuming no terrain effects or other obstacles
- In Texas, market price still substantially higher
than conventional gas or coal-fired generation
123- Capacity factor
- (Actual output ? rated output) ? 100
- 10 to 30 (based on reported experience)
- Capacity credit
- The ability to replace other sources of power
- Actual capacity credits
- 16 (UK)
- 4 (Germany)
- 14 (Ireland)
- 10 (New York State)
124Biofuels Ethanol from Corn or Other Biomass
- Best estimates from ethanol proponents
- 5-10 acres of corn must be grown to supply the
fuel to net 1 acres worth of ethanol delivered
to market - Assumes a ready market for low-value corn
byproducts - To meet the total U.S. transportation fuel demand
would require the total land area of the US. - Only 19 is arable, and most is needed for food,
feed fiber. - Realistically, corn ethanol or other biofuels can
meet lt5 of the need - Brazils efforts are at the expense of rain
forests and fragile tropical soils - In Europe. due to limited farmland and northern
latitudes, ethanol is not feasible
125Solar
- Mostly small-scale applications (home,
commercial) - Not generally cost-competitive (50 yr ROI)
- No utility-scale generation capacity worldwide
126Total installed capacity of 354 MW Installed from
1985 1991 Account for ½ of the worlds total
solar power production
The cost of a commercial-scale power tower today
is estimated at about 7,200/kW, or 0.16/kWh.
SEGS - Solar Electricity Generating Systems
Aerial view of the five 30MW parabolic trough
plants at Kramer Junction in the Mojave desert of
California
127Fossil Fuel Conversion Carbon Sequestration
- DOEs goal by 2012
- Fossil fuel conversion that captures/stores 90
of CO2 - lt10 increase in the cost of energy
- Timing
- Research plant (FutureGen) in operation by 2012
- Commercial-scale units on line around 2020
- Assumption
- Unlikely that accessible fossil fuel resources
will be left unused, irrespective of climate - Especially in developing nations that have fossil
fuels
128If youre really ambitious, try the Tesla
(electric car)
- American designed, assembled in the UK by Lotus
- Base price 92,000
- Zero to 60 mph in about 4 seconds
- Top speed gt130 mph
- Range about 250 miles on a charge
- Recharges in as little as 3.5 hours
- Mobile charging kit allows recharging from any
available electrical outlet - Batteries will last about 100,000 miles
129Comparison to the Cost to Get to the Moon (in
2007 )
- Apollo ? 146 billion (2006 ) 10 years
- Assume
- Nuclear and clean coal are competitive feasible
- All new generating capacity is nuclear and/or
clean coal - Cost to replace existing U.S. fossil-fuel
generating capacity 2 to 5 Trillion 50 years
(13 to 30 x Apollo) - Cost to replace U.S. transportation fuels with
clean electricity 1.3 to 3.3 Trillion (9 to
23 x Apollo) - TOTAL replacement cost (with NO increase in
demand) 3 to 9 Trillion (20 to 50 x Apollo)
About 1 million MW in 2005 U.S. DOE Energy
Information Administration (http//www.eia.doe.gov
/cneaf/electricity/page/capacity/capacity.html )
130AnthropogenicCO2 Emissions by Sector
9 Trillion stops ½ of the CO2
131- Most formal climatic impact assessments have
called for cautious, but positive steps ... - To slow the rate at which we modify climate, and
- To adapt to changes that do materialize.
- Stephen Schneider