Sustainable energy development under climate change

1
Sustainable energy development under climate
change

• Zhou Dadi
• Energy Research Institute
• April 10, 2008

2
Energy challenge faced by China

• Fast increasing energy demand and limited
  resources
• Coal based energy mix and bigger share on energy
  increment
• Domestic environmental pollution severe
• Fast economic growth rate continues for decades
• Globalization pushes the energy intensity
  production expansion

3
Targets of energy development without climate
change

• Sufficient energy supply
• Energy security
• environmental control mainly domestic
• Through
• Energy conservation
• Domestic resources relied
• Coal based
• SO2 and NOX control first
• Already great challenges

4
New challenge for sustainability

• Coal production capacity uncertain
• Safety and health problem for miners uneasy to
  deal with, along the increasing production
• Alternatives not sufficient or timely
• Soaring price of oil, natural gas, even coal in
  the global market
• Block in current available technology choice
• Long strategy and approach not clear and less
  consensus

5
Challenge introduced by climate change

• Negative impact of global warming in China
• Carbon becomes pollutant
• Possible carbon (and energy) cap in foreseeable
  future
• Coal based strategy not sustainable if no CCS
• Low efficiency and high cost of CCS
• Uncertainty of renewables, especially PV, and
  biomass, in terms of economy, reliability or
  resource avalibility

6
Strategic adjustment of energy development

• Higher targets of energy efficiency
• Energy demand control target applicable
• Clear target for low carbon energy development
• Limitation on coal utilization, decrease the
  share of coal in additional supply from now, and
  no coal increase in future
• Strong policy on alternative energy

7
Possible target of corbon control

• Slower down the fast increase of GHG emission
  before 2020
• Significant slow down the increase of carbon
  emission between 2020-2030
• May try emission decrease after 2030, through
• Efficiency first, especially in near term, and
  for long term
• Speed up the development of low and non carbon
  energy alternatives from now

8
Targets of energy efficiency for China

• 20 decrease of energy intensity from 2005 to
  2010, an 4.4 annual improvement rate in average
  for energy efficiency
• Become leading country on energy efficiency by
  2020 to 2030
• Lower per capita energy consumption and carbon
  emission than current developed countries in the
  long run
• Per capita emission may be higher due to sectoral
  structure and energy mix

9
System change needed for efficiency

• Not only technical improvement, but rather system
  change
• New model for consumption pattern and public
  infrastructure
• Production structure adjustment necessary
• Production structural change contributes more
  then direct technology improvement
• Global efforts is necessary

10
Industrial sector still dominates for decade

• About 70 of energy consumed in industrial sector
• Power sector and industrial process share the
  energy
• High efficiency for power sector, next generation
  of ultra-supercritical, IGCC, to improve coal
  fired power from 41-43 to near 50
• General equipments, boiler, driver, pump,
  exchanger, etc.
• Process improvement and equipment

11
System improvement for infrastructure

• Urbanization needs better design and plan
• 15 million people immigrant to urban per year
• More than 2 billion square meters new building
  per year
• Land use planning and proper infrastructure
  choice, including urbanization pattern
• Lead to different consumption pattern
• Decide transport and energy service demand
• Learn experiences and lessons

12
Transport and building technology

• Railway system vs. highway system
• Public transport system vs. private cars
• High speed railway vs. air flight
• High energy performance car vs. luxurious car
• Change the trends of car industry, energy
  efficiency first for car standards
• Hybrid, plugging hybrid, electric, high
  efficiency diesel, and gasoline engine, new fuel,
  etc.
• Super efficiency building, super low energy input
• Heating, air conditioning, and appliances

13
Meaningful alternative energy

• Large scale, available alternative for today
• Hydro power, nuclear, natural gas and wind power
  from now
• Advanced nuclear, and other renewables in longer
  term
• Solar energy should play significant role after
  2030
• Stronger investment in technology development