NOAA IntraSeasonaltoInterannual Prediction Program Toward an Integrated, Requirement Based, and Prod

1
NOAA Intra-Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction
ProgramToward an Integrated, Requirement Based,
and Products Driven RD Program

• Ming Ji
• NOAA/OGP

2
ISIP Requirements

• NOAA Strategic Plans
• Improve long-range climate, weather and water
  predictions
• CCSP deliverables addressed by NOAA ISIP
• Climate Variability and Change
• Global Water Cycle
• ISIP Users and Customers
• Operational Climate Prediction Centers
• Climate and Water Service Providers
• Place based RD Applications (e.g., RISA)
• Fed. Gov. - Improve fcst skill and information
  content for policy and decision making

3
ISIP Goals

• Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of
  climate forecasts and application products to
  manage risks and opportunities of climate impacts
  due to intra-seasonal to interannual climate
  variations
• The Seamless Suite of NWS forecast guidance
  (week-2 to interannual)
• Multi-model ensemble based forecast system(s)
• Regional/sectoral application products for
  decision support (resource and risk management)
• International predictions, assessments and
  applications

4
Seamless Suite of Forecasts
Boundary Conditions
Initial Conditions
5
New environmental forecast products will be
feasible
Possible Threats-Summer 2020 hot, dry and
unhealthy
6
Integrated ISIP Program Structure

• Model Development
• (High-end centers EMC, GFDL, GMAO, NCAR)
• Experimental Prediction
• (Incl. Multi-model Ens. Fcst System Development)
• Applications and Products Development
• Research
• (e.g., process and predictability studies,
  diagnostics, data analysis, attribution, model
  development)

7
NCEP/EMC
8
(No Transcript)
9
Program Structure (2)

• Model Development
• (Requirement for Environmental Modeling Program)
• Experimental Prediction
• (Incl. Multi-model Forecast System Development)
• Applications and Products Development
• Research
• (e.g., process and predictability studies,
  diagnostics, data analysis, attribution, model
  development)

10
IRI Example Dynamical Multi-model Forecast System
ATMOSPHERE
HISTORICAL DATA Extended simulations Observation
s
SST
GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ECHAM4.5(MPI) NCEP
(MRF9) CCM3.2(NCAR) NSIPP(NASA) COLA2.x
PERSISTED GLOBAL SST
Persisted SST Ensembles 3 Mo. lead
POST PROCESSING -Multimodel Ensembling
FORECAST SST TROP. PACIFIC (NCEP
dynamical) TROP. ATL, INDIAN (statistical) EXTRATR
OPICAL (damped persistence)
Forecast SST Ensembles 3/6 Mo. lead
REGIONAL MODELS
AGCM INITIAL CONDITIONS UPDATED ENSEMBLES
(10) WITH OBSERVED SST
11
Extreme precipitation events associated with
winter storms PDF of storms formed in the Gulf of
Mexico (1949-1998)
Red - El Nino winters Blue - La Nina
winters Dotted - observations (Higgins et
al) Solid - NSIPP model (9 member ensemble)
Extreme values of the precipitation EOF
corresponding to storms that form in the Gulf of
Mexico during DJF. Extreme values are fit to
the Gumbel Distribution based on daily winter
maxima for the period 1949-1998. The abscissa is
the maximum value of the associated principal
component for a given winter.
The model is seeing the same separation in
extreme events in El Niño and La Niña years as
nature
12
Program Structure (4)

• Model Development
• Multi-model fcst system and experimental
  prediction
• Application Products Development
• Research (CPPA)
• Integrated PACSGAPP research program
• Process studies (e.g., NAME)
• Regional Reanalysis and LDAS products
• Routine attribution/forecast discussions with CPC
• Land and hydrology model development for climate
  prediction and water resource applications
• Climate model diagnostics consortium
• ODASI consortium
• Regional modeling consortium

13
Land/Soil
AO/NAO
Monsoons
Patterns of Natural Climate Variability and
Source of Predictability
TAV
Land/Soil
14
Drought causes -
Drought and climate variability

• Are the tropical oceans playing an important
  role?
• Evolution of tropical Pacific Sea Surface
  Temperatures
• 
  
  

1998
El Niño
La Niña onset
1999
2000
2001
2002
La Niña ends
15
Challenges

• Build an integrated ISIP RD program
• ISIP workshop (Aug. 2003)
• Integrate science communities
• Integration of PACS/GAPP - CPPA
• Two-way communication between producers and users
• ISIP workshop (Aug. 2003)
• Support integrated climate obs. system
• See ISIP products
• Performance measures

16
ISIP Products by Category

• National Guidance Products
• Attribution on all time scales
• Nowcasting of Trends
• Subseasonal probabilistic forecast of extremes
• Global and regional reanalysis products
• Best practice for climate forecasts
• Regional/sectoral Application Products
• Water resource availability
• Fire weather
• Agriculture applications
• River forecasts, costal runoff
• Other
• Trainings and workshops
• International applications (place based)
• Information briefings for Fed. Gov. (White House,
  Congress)
• Requirements for climate obs. system

17
ISIP Products (FY03/04 and beyond)

• Operational guidance
• Realistic skill score Estimate the limit of
  predictability
• Operational ensemble subseasonal forecasts
• Operational coupled model forecast sys. (NCEP)
• Multi-model ensemble forecasts
• Regional/sectoral applications
• Agriculture (e.g., Freezing days)
• Fire Weather
• Drought forecast/LDAS
• Hydrological fcst (wk-2 to seasonal)
• Other
• NAME/NAME CPT (CLIVAR)
• Diurnal cycle/conv. precip. over land
• Information briefings (on demand), workshops,
  trainings
• Regional Reanalysis