The golden age of technology

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The golden age of technology

• André V. Mendes
• CTIO
• PBS

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Warnings Caveats

• This presentation reflects my opinions
• Things happen whether we like them or not
• Focus on concepts rather than specific buzzwords
• We will go fast, screen is busy
• Caveat emptor

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A quick baseline

• Introduction, hysteria, disappointment, maturity,
  productivity
• We overestimate short term effects of
  technological change
• Web retail
• We underestimate long terms effects of
  technological change
• We evolved from yeast!

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Advancing waves of other peoples progress sweep
over the unchanging man and wash him out. You
need to organize a department of systematic
change-making!Charles Kettering, speech to US
Chamber of Commerce, 1929
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What is Technology?

• Technology is whatever did not exist when we were
  growing up
• Swords and catapults
• Gutembergs press Leeuwenhoeks microscope
• Electricity, telephone
• Radio television
• Computers and antibiotics
• Internet and robots

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It is constantly accelerating

• Youre not crazy Things are getting faster!
• For the past few billion years
• Primitive cells evolved in billions of years
• DNA digital recording of evolution
• Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years
  
• Humanoids, millions of years
• Homo Sapiens, hundreds of thousands
• Technology creating species meant a shift away
  from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution!

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Pedal to the metal

• With man made technology
• Sharp edges, fire, wheel tens of thousands
• By 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries
• 19th century more growth than the previous 18
• First 20 years of the 20th century eclipsed 19th
• WWW is 11 years old!
• 21st Century expect 200 centuries of progress!
• Expectation of linear growth
• Double exponential growth

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Lets talk about change!
Tbps

• I backbone

Gbps

• ESCON (fiber) channel

Network bandwidth
Mbps

• Wireless LANs

• PC modem

• Bus tag

Kbps
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
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Converging accelerations
1,000,000X
100,000x
10,000x
1,000x
100X
storage
10X
bandwidth
MIPS
1X
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
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Hence change in computing paradigms!

• Host based (Mainframes, mini-computers)
• CPU and storage absurdly expensive
• Bandwidth basically inexistent
• Client Server
• CPU still costly, storage cheaper
• External bandwidth still basically inexistent
• Web era
• Cheap CPU Storage, costly bandwidth
• Web Services realm
• Cheap CPU, storage and bandwidth
• Virtual reality realm
• Virtually free CPU, storage and bandwidth

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Now then Whats next?

• We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of
  scientific and technological disciplines
• As our knowledge in each individual arena
  deepens, we are coming to the realization that
  they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental
  levels
• Physical Sciences
• Life Sciences
• Computer Sciences
• Anthropology
• Societal Studies
• Economics
• We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate
  across disciplines in order to further accelerate
  the process

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Which brings forth

• Incredible scientific progress
• We are taking charge of the human evolutionary
  process with a return to protein synthesis (DNA)
  based evolution
• Single gene correction
• Telomerase vaccine
• Nano scale implants
• Drug dispensing, disease detection, electrical
  stimulation
• Stem cells
• Nervous system brain tissue regeneration
• Wet interfaces
• Cochlear implants
• Artificial vision

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Artificial vision
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Artificial vision
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At the same time

• We continue to embed biological like behavior
  into our computer systems
• DNA regeneration, immune system
• Self healing OS, virus detection
• Training Learned behavior
• Fraud detection
• Voice recognition, pen recognition
• Visual memory
• Pattern recognition, facial ids
• Cloning, resource re-allocation, maintenance of
  homeostasis

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For all practical purposes

• Computer systems have, almost invisibly, become
  members of society
• My travel agent is Expedia
• My research assistance is Google
• My broker is E-trade
• And stratify into core competencies like humans
  do.
• They will supplement each others through
  technologies like Web Services with
• Pay per service fees (Micro Payments)
• Industry specific lingo (XML variants)
• Yellow pages (UDDI)

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And we are becoming

• Willing participants in their virtual realm
• Through increasingly sophisticated Avatars
• Constantly researching on our behalf
• Is there a fare sale to Lisbon?
• Is there a 1971 E-type Jag on e-bay?
• Any new studies on cartilage replacement surgery?
  
• Which VOIP provider has the best rates?
• Any new FCC pronouncements on DTV
• By 2030 a substantial portion of our daily
  interaction will be in a virtual environment!

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Over the next few years

• A substantial number of fundamental technologies
  will move beyond the hype and squarely into full
  productivity
• Technology will move further away from a
  mushroom type of influence and into a yeast
  like effect whose impact will be profound in
  every section of society.
• From medicine to entertainment
• From manufacturing to sales
• From education to military
• Technology will be essential, pervasive and will
  continue to disappear into the background!

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Technology will show in..

• Ever increasing percentage of GDP
• Productivity enablement
• Economic growth, low inflation
• Fully informed manufacturing cycles
• Supply chain, ERP, E-commerce, CRM
• Aggregation of data
• Company, area, region, national
• Enables economic stimulus, pullback
• Shortens and shallows recessionary periods

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Interestingly enough

• Unemployment and underemployment will continue to
  very slowly rise
• Outsourcing and tipping points
• Remove bandwidth obstacles
• Generate enough demand (90s bubble)
• Global economy
• Effectively, outsourcing is a web service!
• Bidirectional with an outward bias!

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Today, SCM is an imperative!

• Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly
  automated JIT factory
• Tires come straight from loading dock to line
• Chevrolet slashes time to market
• New model variant every 22 days!!!!
• WallMart and Home Depot have mandated RFID usage
  by major suppliers by 2005
• Southwest, Jet Blue, Air Tran

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• I do not believe that you can do todays job
  with yesterdays methods and be in business
  tomorrow Nelson Jackson

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What must PTV do.

• Optimize the entire PTV supply chain
• From producers to aggregators/distributors
• From distributors to member stations
• From member stations to end users
• Optimize content and its granularity
• Standardize metadata
• Ingest once
• Eliminate codec cycles
• Optimize distribution
• Modularize each step maximizing ability to change
• Eliminate redundant processes
• Focus on core competencies and local impact

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Public Televisions Content Supply Chain
Manufacturing
Distribution
Retail
Consumer
WGBH/WNET
Traffic and underwriting
Hosted scheduling underwriting
Local production
Orion/Broadview
Transmitter
NETA/APT
Edge server, automation, branding ATSC encoding
Server Archive
Cable Head end
Other Producers
DBS LTL
Monitoring resolution
Monitoring resolution
Hardware, software, audio and video monitoring
Internet
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Questions?