Getting the Green Light: An Environmental Assessment of Todays Passenger Vehicles

1
Getting the Green LightAn Environmental
Assessment of Todays Passenger Vehicles

• James Kliesch
• American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

2
Topical Overview

• Why should we be concerned?
• What makes a vehicle green/mean?
• How green has changed (or not) over the last
  five years
• Top stories of 2004
• Crystal ball what lies ahead

3
Why be concerned?

• Every 2 seconds in this country, a new vehicle is
  purchased
• Every other one of those is a light duty truck
  (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically with higher
  tailpipe emissions and lower fuel economy
• U.S. passenger vehicles consume 125 billion
  gallons of gasoline each year.

4
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue to grow
5
How do you address consumption emissions?

• One way promote the manufacture and purchase of
  clean, efficient vehicles.

6
ACEEEs Green Book

• Consumer guide, produced annually since Feb 1998
• 7th edition (model year 04) released 2/10/04
• Available at www.GreenerCars.com

7
GreenerCars.com

• Three main aspects to the website
• Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest, Best-in-Class)
• General consumer info on vehicles and the
  environment, how to buy green, etc.
• Database of all MY2000-2004 vehicles/configuration
  s (approx. 6,200 listings), and their Green
  Scores

8
What Determines a Vehicles Green-ness?

• Fuel Economy
• Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-regulated
  tailpipe pollutants (ex. SOx, N2O)
• Affects upstream emissions
• Tailpipe Emissions
• A vehicles emission standard specifies quantity
  of CO, HC, NOx, PM emitted
• Embodied Emissions (to lesser degree)

9
Emission Standard Primer

• California
• LEV I
• ULEV I
• LEV II
• ULEV II
• SULEV II
• PZEV

• Federal
• Tier 2 bin 11
• Tier 2 bin 10
• Tier 2 bin 5
• ...
• Tier 2 bin 2
• Tier 2 bin 1

10
Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Life Exhaust
Emission Standards
11
Green Vehicles Have...

• High Fuel Economy
• Low Tailpipe Emissions
• Generally, what are those today?
• Hybrid-electric vehicles
• Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that meet
  stringent emission standards
• CNG vehicles

12
Mean Vehicles Have...

• Low Fuel Economy
• Bare-minimum Tailpipe Emissions
• Generally, what are those today?
• Large SUVs
• Large pickup trucks
• Performance-oriented sports cars
• Diesels (interesting case, because high FE)

13

• What a difference a half-decade makes...

14
Greenest VehiclesModel Years 2000 2004

• Model Year 2000
• GM EV1
• Nissan Altra EV
• Honda Civic GX
• Honda Insight
• Toyota RAV4 EV
• Toyota Camry CNG
• Ford Electric Ranger
• Chevy Metro
• Toyota Echo
• Nissan Sentra CA
• Mitsubishi Mirage
• Honda Civic HX

• Model Year 2004
• Honda Civic GX
• Honda Insight
• Toyota Prius
• Honda Civic Hybrid
• Toyota Echo
• Nissan Sentra
• Honda Civic HX
• Mazda 3
• Toyota Corolla
• Hyundai Elantra
• Scion xA
• Honda Civic

15

• Then again...

16
Meanest VehiclesModel Years 2000 2004

• Model Year 2000
• Chevy Suburban
• Dodge Ram 2500
• Ferrari Maranello
• Chevy Silverado
• Ford Excursion
• Dodge B2500 Van
• Chevy K2500 Pickup
• Cadillac Escalade
• GMC Yukon Denali
• Toyota Land Cruiser
• Ferrari 456M
• Land Rover Range Rover

• Model Year 2004
• Volkswagen Touareg
• Land Rover Range Rover
• Ford Excursion
• Dodge Ram 1500
• Lexus LX 470
• Toyota Land Cruiser
• Hummer H2
• GMC Yukon XL K2500
• Chevy Suburban K2500
• Toyota Sequoia
• Lamborghini Murcielago
• Land Rover Discovery Ser. II

17
Top Stories of Model Year 2004

• (1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV II tailpipe
  emission standards go into effect.
• Greater s of SULEVs PZEVs -- cleanest
  emissions levels of gasoline vehicles ever
• On the whole, modest improvement federally,
  although standout models exist

18
Increasing Number of SULEV and PZEV Nameplates
19
Top Stories of Model Year 2004

• (2) Hybrids continue to be a big story
• New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets 3rd
  highest overall score, and highest rating of
  gasoline powered sedans (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3
  emissions FE 60/51)
• Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Silverado
  Hybrid (FE 19 mpg hybrid vs. 17 mpg conventional)

20
The Growth of Hybrid-Electric Vehicles

• MY2000
• Honda Insight
• MY2001
• Toyota Prius
• MY2003
• Honda Civic Hybrid
• MY2004
• Toyota Prius (New)
• GM Silverado/Sierra Hybrid

• MY2005 and beyond high-profile hybrids
• Ford Escape HEV
• Lexus RX400H
• Toyota Highlander
• Honda Accord
• Saturn VUE
• Rumored
• Honda Odyssey

21
HEV Sales Figures/Estimates

• Today 40,000 annual
• 50 Prius
• 47 Civic Hybrid
• 3 Insight
• 2007 500,000 annual

22
Top Stories of Model Year 2004

• (3) Overall, FE continues to decline
• Most recent confirmed information shows combined
  car/truck fuel economy at lowest level since 1980
• Due to high sales of large SUVs and pickups
• These market segments have been aggressively
  pursued by import companies (i.e., not just a Big
  3 problem)

23
Passenger Car/TruckFuel Economy
Trends (Hellman and Heavenrich 2003)
24
Improvements in Low-Fuel Economy Vehicles are
Critical

• 14 mpg -- 16 mpg
• (a 14 improvement)
• Saves 134 gallons annually

• 35 mpg -- 51 mpg
• (a 46 improvement)
• Saves 134 gallons annually

25
SUVs on the Rise(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)
26
The Changing SUV Segment(J.D. Power and Assoc.
2003)
27
Reason For Entry/Luxury SUV Growth Crossover
Vehicles
28
Are Crossovers Environmentally Friendly?

• Eco-friendliness depends on use
• Is it a greener alternative for ski trips to
  mountains? Perhaps.
• Can you save the planet by using it to zip around
  town? No.
• Eco-friendliness depends on vehicle
• Pontiac Vibe? Yes.
• Infiniti FX45? No.

29
What Lies Ahead?
30
Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball

• Near-Term (Present-2010)
• Continued improvement of gasoline-powered
  vehicles
• Release of new hybrid vehicles
• Continued deployment of an alternative
  technologies portfolio
• Room for diesel?

31
Near-Term (Present-2010)

• Continued improvement of gasoline-powered
  vehicles
• Lightweight materials use engine operation (EGR,
  VVT, etc.) transmission improvements (CVT)
  improved OBD
• Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Sentra CA,
  Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Focus PZEV, others

32
Near-Term (Present-2010)

• Release of new hybrid-electric vehicles
• Ford Escape HEV
• Lexus RX400H
• Toyota Highlander
• Honda Accord
• Saturn VUE
• Others Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu (2007)

33
Near-Term (Present-2010)

• Continued deployment of an alternative
  technologies portfolio
• Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use (at
  least initially)
• Electric minicars
• Test deployment of fuel cell vehicles

34
Near-Term (Present-2010)

• Room for diesel?
• Numerous questions remain about the viability of
  significant light duty diesel penetration

35
Diesel Car and Light Truck Retail Sales, 1970-2001
36
A Host of Issues AffectDiesel Prospects

• Technology Costs
• Health Impacts
• Regulatory Constraints
• Fuel Quality
• Technical Developments
• Consumer Attitudes

37
Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball

• Mid-Term (2015-2030)
• Stronger presence of hybrid-electric vehicles
• Introduction of fuel cell vehicles

38
Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball

• Far-Term (2030 and beyond)
• Stronger presence of fuel cell vehicles
• Need time to develop cell technologies and
  production techniques
• Need time to address dual-conundrum of (1) using
  hydrogen and dealing with storage/infrastructure,
  or (2) using liquid fuel (such as methanol) and
  dealing with processing

39
Thank You

• James Kliesch
• American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
• 1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 801
• Washington, DC 20036
• [phone]
• jkliesch_at_aceee.org