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November 29, 2004

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American Institute for International Steel, Inc. AIIS. 1. Safe Harbor Statement ... Freight costs have increased sharply recently and further increases for 2005 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: November 29, 2004


1
.
American Institute for International Steel,
Inc. AIIS
November 29, 2004 Michael D. Siegal Chairman
CEO
2
Safe Harbor Statement
Statements contained in this presentation which
are not historical facts are forward-looking
statements which involve risks and uncertainties
that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those expressed in the
forward-looking statements. Please refer to the
Companys SEC filings for further information.
3
Mission Statement
Achieve profitable growth by safely providing
quality business solutions to users of
flat-rolled steel.
4
Our Core Values
  • Accountability
  • Corporate Citizenship
  • Customer Satisfaction
  • Employee Development
  • Financial Stability
  • Integrity
  • Quality
  • Respect
  • Safety
  • Teamwork

5
50 Years of Operating History
2004
50th Anniversary
2002
1998
JNT Precision Machining acquisition
1997
Southeastern Metal Processing acquisition
JV Partnershipwith Goss Brothers
1996
Secondary Public Offering
1995
Lafayette Steel acquisition
Chambersburg, Pennsylvania greenfield
1994
Initial Public Offering
1991
1990
Juster Steel acquisition
Olympic Laser Processing / Bettendorf, Iowa
greenfields
1987
David Wolfort becomes equity owner
1984
Michael Siegal named President
Minneapolis - Plate / Cleveland temper mill
greenfields
1954
Company founded
Cleveland expansion
Eastern Steel Metal acquisition
Viking Steel acquisition and Cleveland expansion
6
Helping Drive Superior Performance
LTM Return on Invested Capital
LTM EBITDA Margin
Note ROIC calculated by dividing tax-effected
EBIT by the sum of debt and common and preferred
equity. LTM as of 9/30/04. Metals USA
announced its emergence from Chapter 11 on
November 4, 2002.
7
Investment Highlights
  • Leading market position
  • Experienced management team
  • Operating excellence with improved cost structure
  • Increased importance of service centers in
    transforming steel market place
  • Financial strength and flexibility

Well Positioned for Growth in a
Consolidating Industry
8
The State of the Steel Industry Today..What is
going on?How about those steel prices?
9
U.S. DomesticHot Rolled Steel Prices - then..
( per ton)
December, 2003
2004 Projected 380 per ton
Source Purchasing Magazine
10
U.S. DomesticHot Rolled Steel Prices - now..
( per ton)
November, 2004
2004 Peak 756 per ton
December 2003 330 per ton
September, 2003 290 per ton
Source Purchasing Magazine
Includes surcharge
11
Production Sector
Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Total Business
Purchasing Managers Index
12
Inventory Levels
MSCI report - November, 2004 - All Product Lines
13
Financing challenges to inventory
  • More product, at higher cost
  • Increased inventory values burden on credit
    lines
  • Volatility Inventory levels (including import
    surges)
  • Increasing risk of inventory devaluation
  • Lack of credit insurance for imports

14
Demand
15
Demand Service Center Shipments
  • Very strong demand trends since mid-2003
  • Slight cooling of growth forecasted, but yoy will
    remain very robust
  • Source MSCI Metal Activity Report

16
Key Consuming Markets
  • Light Vehicle production represents 20 of steel
    consumption

Source Metal Strategies
17
Key Consuming Markets
  • Truck Units

Source Metal Strategies
18
Key Consuming Markets
  • Returning Non-Residential Construction

Source Metal Strategies
19
Key Consuming Markets
  • Not Dropping off the growth pace until 05

Source Metal Strategies
20
Key Consuming Markets
  • Construction and Ag Units

Source Metal Strategies
21
Key Consuming Markets
  • Rail Car production is recovering

Source Metal Strategies
22
Institute of Supply Management
  • Backlogs

Source Inside Supply Management - November,m
2004
23
Interest Rates
  • A very low interest rate environment

24
Supply
25
The Big 3 US Steel Flat-Rolled Makers
  • Domestic Producer Sheet Capacity of 60M Mkt
  • USS (w/NSC) 18.5M 31
  • Mittal Steel (w/ISG) 26.5M 44
  • Nucor 8M 13
  • Big 3 Total 53M 88
  • Any production disruptions?
  • Maintenance, Equipment failure, Blackout,
    Hurricane, Raw Material
  • Do they try to run full?
  • Managed output creating a new floor and moving
    prices up
  • How do they manage pricing?

26
Concentration of Ownership
  • Production is lower, utilization is higher

27
Input Costs
  • Scrap Pricing

Source Goldman Sachs Steel Scrap Monthly -
November, 2004
28
Input Costs
  • Met Coke

Source Metal Strategies
29
Input Costs
  • Iron Ore

Source Metal Strategies
30
Input Costs
  • Scrap Substitutes

Source Metal Strategies
31
Other Commodities
  • Oil Gas

Source Future.tradingcharts.com
32
Other Commodities
  • Heating Oil

Source Future.tradingcharts.com
33
Other Commodities
  • Natural Gas

Source Future.tradingcharts.com
34
Where have all the imports gone - Transportation
Costs
  • Freight costs have increased sharply recently and
    further increases for 2005 have been announced

Source Bloomberg (Goldman Sachs - Steel Scrap
Monthly - November, 2004)
35
Imports
36
Imports
Source ITA.gov Surge Monitor Department of
Commerce
37
Imports
Source ITA.gov Surge Monitor Department of
Commerce
38
Imports
Source ITA.gov Surge Monitor Department of
Commerce
39
Imports
Source ITA.gov Surge Monitor Department of
Commerce
40
Currency
2004 EUR to 1 USD
2004 Japanese Yens to 1 USD
2004 Chinese Yuans to 1 USD
SourceX-Rates.com
41
China
42
China Fast Facts
  • 1980 - 2002 - Chinas share of total global
    trade increased
  • exports 1.2 to 5.2
  • imports 1.1 to 4.2
  • 1993 - 2002 Export volume rose an average of
    17.3 annually
  • at that rate would surpass the US by 2010
  • 2003 China is worlds 4th largest exporter with
    366 Billion
  • Behind the US, Germany, and Japan
  • 2003 China is the worlds 6th largest importer
    with 323 Billion
  • 2003 China is 9 of the US total imports
  • 2003 China imports are 1 of US GDP
  • US is 11.5 of Chinas imports and 2 of GDP

43
China Fast Facts
  • Chinas 2003 GDP about 1/30 of the world GDP,
    but consumed...
  • 25 of the worlds steel
  • 30 of the worlds coal
  • 13 percent of the worlds electric power
  • Oil imports up 31 in 2003
  • Chinas demand is eliminating excesses in
  • Iron ore and Scrap
  • Machinery and Parts
  • and, Especially shipping capacity
  • this sends prices soaring

44
China vs. US Steel Production
Source Metal Strategies
45
China - Per capita steel consumption
Source Metal Strategies
46
In Summary
  • Increased demand
  • a) All domestic sectors
  • b) Global pick-up
  • Decreased domestic supply
  • a) Manufacturing inventories
  • b) Service center data
  • Greater exports of steel finished goods (dollar
    driven)
  • Overall rising steel input cost
  • Constricted disciplined domestic flat rolled
    supply
  • Low interest rates - rising employment

47
What Our Customers Are Saying...
48
Conclusion
  • Pricing will continue to increase
  • How long?

a while.
49
Thank You!
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