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The Geopolitics of Energy and the Malacca Straits

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The Geopolitics of Energy and the Malacca Straits. Mikkal E. Herberg ... oil and LNG prices rise, energy geopolitics focus on sea lanes and Malacca ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Geopolitics of Energy and the Malacca Straits


1
The Geopolitics of Energy and the Malacca Straits
  • Mikkal E. Herberg
  • The National Bureau of Asia Research
  • The Woodrow Wilson Center for International
    Scholars
  • Washington, D.C.
  • November 14, 2006

2
Asias Energy Angst
  • Energy becoming key factor in Asias geopolitical
    architecture
  • Energy nationalism rising with prices, perception
    of long-term looming scarcity
  • Zero-sum competition for control of supplies and
    transport routes
  • Intensifying focus on transit security, control
  • Mainly oil but increasingly natural gas (LNG)
    long-term

3
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4
What are the Energy Stakes?
  • About more than Malacca Straits
  • Can bypass Straits but shortage of shipping
    capacity
  • Larger context is the South, East Asian sea lanes
  • Energy volumes through Straits
  • Oil 11 MMBD 2002 rising to 22 MMBD 2030
  • Rising one-half to two-thirds of Asias total oil
    consumption
  • LNG 29 BCM 2002 rising to 114 BCM 2030
  • Another 114 BCM SE Asia through South China Sea

5
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6
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7
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8
The Malacca StraitsKey Countries with Energy
Interests
  • United States
  • Interest in uninterrupted flow of oil, LNG
  • Indonesia, Malaysia
  • Littoral states, sovereignty, sensitive to U.S.
    role
  • Japan 90 of oil supplies, 40 of LNG
  • Powerful navy, very limited role
  • China 30 of oil supplies, headed for 60
  • Singapore strong navy, littoral state, closer
    U.S. relations
  • India looking east, rivalry with China

9
Chinas Growing Focus on Sea Lanes
  • Fear US dominance sea lanes, also terrorism and
    piracy
  • Lack of Blue Water navy power projection
  • Must free ride on US, SE Asia naval powers
  • Response
  • String of Pearls near-term port access
    strategy, submarines
  • Blue Water navy development long-term
  • Alternative routes Myanmar oil pipeline
  • Want to build Chinese tanker fleet only 10 now
  • Growing interest in patrolling Straits Malacca
    reducing US control

10
Conclusions
  • As oil and LNG prices rise, energy geopolitics
    focus on sea lanes and Malacca Straits will
    intensify
  • U.S. dominance of sea lanes to continue
  • Terrorism, piracy main near-term concerns
  • Rise of China and possible asymetrical strategies
    to address energy shipping vulnerability are wild
    cards very long-term
  • U.S., India, Japan all wary of China factor
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