Christer Pursiainen Foreign policy analysis

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Christer PursiainenForeign policy analysis

• University of Helsinki, Open University
• 8 May 2003

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For downloading the Power Point presentation,
go to

• http//www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
• ? teaching

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Contents

• International Relations Grand Debates
• From political realism
• to foreign policy analysis
• A rational state?
• Bureaucratic/organisational policy?
• The role of cognitive factors?
• Foreign policy change
• Discourses and story-lines

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International Relations Grand Debates

• First debate (1930s-1940s)
• Idealism vs. Political Realism
• Second debate (1950s-1960s)
• Scientism vs. Traditionalism
• Third debate (1970s)
• Realism vs. Liberalism vs. Marxism
• Fourth debate (1980s-2000)
• (Neo)realism vs. Institutionalism vs.
  Constructivism
• Fifth debate (?)

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International Relations Grand Debates

• explaining or/and understanding?
• explaining from outside by causal explanation
  what caused and event or behavior?
• understanding from inside in terms of
  constitutive rules and intentions

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International Relations Grand Debates

• there are always two stories to tell and they
  cannot merely be added together
• sometimes one account makes more sense, and
  sometimes another
• we always need to tackle both understanding and
  explaining

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International Relations Grand Debates

• Levels-of-analysis problem
• international system
• nation state
• bureaucracy
• individual

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International Relations Grand Debates

• or agency-structure debate
• structure I
• action I
• structure II
• action II

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From political realism

• politics is governed by objective laws
• the roots of those laws lie in the human nature
• the laws are objective because human nature does
  not change in the course of times

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From political realism

• we can distinguish between the economic person,
  the religious person, the moral person, the
  political person etc.
• in order to understand politics, we must study
  only the political person
• we should study the political actions of a
  statesman (as a synonym of a state)

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From political realism

• the theory of political realism is based on the
  idea of a rational actor
• we should compare the real events to this ideal,
  normative picture
• the behaviour of a political person in social
  context is based on power
• maintenance of power strengthening of power
  demonstration of power

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From political realism

• power does not mean only physical or military
  power, but refers to all kind of control over the
  minds and actions of other individuals
• power is important, because whatever interests or
  goals we have, in order to achieve them in
  politics this brings the desire to control the
  actions of others

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to foreign policy analysis

• three generations of foreign policy analysis
  (FPA)
• 1) the Scientist reaction against the
  unscientificrealist paradigm (1950s-60s)
• 2) comparative foreign policy approach (1970s)
• 3) a more eclectic, flexiple and diffuse in terms
  of approaches, methodologies, research techniques
  (1980s--)

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to foreign policy analysis

• which actor or agent?
• which action principle?
• object of explanation?
• structure of explanation?

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to foreign policy analysis
Snyder et al. 1954
External setting
Internal setting
Decision-making process
Social structure and behavior
Action
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to foreign policy analysis
Brecher et al. 1968
Operational environment
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Communications
Decision-making elite
Psychological environment attitudional
prism elite images
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Formulation of foreign policy decisions by issue
areas
Decision implementation
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A rational state?

• giving preference to a better alternative of
  those available when trying to fulfil desires and
  objectives
• rational choice theory shows us what to do to
  achieve our goals, but it does not tell what we
  want to achieve

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A rational state?

• in parametrical choices an actor is under
  external limitations that are mostly given or
  parametrical
• the task of an actor is to assess these
  restrictions and then decide what to do
• in strategic choice situations there is a mutual
  dependency of a decision
• these situations are studied with game theory,
  that is, with a game of two or n-players

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A rational state?
Prisoners dilemma
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
1,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,1
2,2
non-cooperation
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A rational state?
Chicken
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
2,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,2
1,1
non-cooperation
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A rational state?
x chooses (between negotiations or a violent
solution/threat)
y chooses
x chooses
alternative outcomes and their utility
functions for x and y
nego
cap
war
cap
war
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A rational state model?
Allisons three models 1971
Black box
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Bureaucratic policy?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Black box
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Organisational model?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Leaders
Black box
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The role of cognitive factors?

• a human beings ability to process information
• for some reason a person almost always neglects
  some of the alternatives, or refuses to perceive
  given information
• the facts do not say or tell anything by
  themselves

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The role of cognitive factors?

• an actor must choose them, put in order and
  classify them, to give them meaning, and then act
  on the basis of knowledge thus accumulated
• adopted attitudes or belief systems can make
  decision-makers to close their mind to
  controversial information

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The role of cognitive factors?

• faced with critical information a person is
  inclined to misunderstand it, to deny it or leave
  it totally unnoticed
• all information is interpreted whenever possible
  so that it supports existing beliefs
• when a change is necessary, the first way out is
  chosen
• post factum rationalisation

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The role of cognitive factors?

• groupthink
• an urge to agree is greater than the urge to find
  the best possible solution
• after the decision, the risk of breaking the
  consensus appears greater than the risk of faulty
  decision
• strict boundaries to outsiders and opponents

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The role of cognitive factors?

• crisis decision-making
• a threat to essential goals
• time pressure
• a lot of unpredictable factors

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The role of cognitive factors?

• number of misjudgements and miscalculations
  increase
• aggressive inclinations more frequent
• consideration of relevant facts more selective

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The role of cognitive factors?

• the ability to abstract from details weakens
• more difficult to tolerate complexity
• the difference between irrelevant and essential
  disappears

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How to study foreign policy change?

• early studies on foreign policy adaption or
  cybernetics
• a new interest from the early 1980s onward
• increased focus after the end of the Cold War

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How to study foreign policy change?

• Hermann 1990
• Degrees of foreign policy change
• revision of policy (quantitative)
• programmatic change (qualitative)
• redefining the problem
• reorientation of foreign policy
• sources leader driven bureaucratic advocacy
  domestic restructuring external shock

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How to study foreign policy change?
Holsti 1992

• Independent variables
• external factors
• domestic factors
• historical and cultural factors

• Intervening variables
• policy-makers perceptions and calculations
• policy-making process
• personality factors
• elite attitudes towards external actors

• Dependent variables
• intent to restructure foreign policy

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How to study foreign policy change?
Goldmann 1988
policy-making system
conditions
composition
policies
ideas, learning
power-balance
residual factors
stabilizers
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How to study foreign policy change?

• organisational and inividual learning
• feedback reactions
• adaptive reactions (new circumstances)
• simple vs. complex learning

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How to study foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure
Conditions
Institutional settings
Agency
foreign policy action
Values
Choice
Perceptions
Preferences
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How to study foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure II
Structure I
Agency
Agency
action I
action II
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Discourses and storylines
Ó Tuathail
Foreign Policy Process
Story-Line Construction
Cultural storehouse
Deliberative Public Arena
Media representations
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For downloading the Power Point presentation,
go to

• http//www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
• ? teaching