NRIC IV Focus Group One Subcommittee 1 Network Assessment Report

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NRIC IV Focus Group OneSubcommittee 1Network
Assessment Report 2

• April 14th, 1999
• Federal Communications Commission
• Washington, D.C.
• Gerry Roth
• Vice President
• GTE Technology Programs

This document and the information contained
herein is intended, and for all purposes shall be
deemed, a Year 2000 statement and a Year 2000
readiness disclosure as those terms are defined
under United States federal law
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Executive Summary

• United States Public Network Status
• U.S. Telephone Service providers are on track to
  complete Year 2000 remediation programs
• Approximately 90 of the local, and 99 of the
  long distance switches in the U.S. Public
  Switched Network are deployed as of March 1999
• Mid and small sized local companies trail the
  larger companies, but appear to be on track for
  3rd and 4th quarter 1999 completion
• Major carriers predict the Y2K completion and
  roll-out of all essential systems and products by
  June 1999
• NRIC is estimating 98 by June to allow some
  margin of error
• No company is indicating technical difficulty
  with completion
• Range of responses is very narrowly distributed
  around the average
• International Risk Assessment
• From all sources, the perceived risk of
  compliance has increased since our last report
• Approximately 75 of countries sampled have
  increased risk
• 191 countries assessed, vs. 84 in December

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Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Status Large Local
Exchange Carriers(greater than 92 of U.S.
Access Lines)
Essential Systems Only
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Y2K Network Compliance Status Large Local
Exchange Carriers
Essential Systems Only
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Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Comparison Large,
Midsize, and Small Local Exchange Carriers
December 1998 Actuals

• Data Source
• Large--NRIC
• Midsize--NRIC/USTA
• Small--NRIC/FCC

Essential Systems Only
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Y2K Network Compliance Comparison Large,
Midsize, and Small Local Exchange Carriers
December 1998 Actuals

• Data Source
• Large--NRIC
• Midsize--NRIC/USTA
• Small--NRIC/FCC

Essential Systems Only
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Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Status Major
Inter-Exchange Carriers(82 of U.S. Revenue)
Essential Systems Only
8
Y2K Network Compliance Status Major
Inter-Exchange Carriers
Essential Systems Only
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International Status
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Change in Risk Perception - December to March
Telecommunications Risk Assessment by Country
Countries 84
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International Status by Region Comparison of
Perceptions of Risk - December to March
Sub Indian Middle East Eastern Central
Asia North Western Sahara Sub Europe
South Pacific America Europe Africa
Continent North Africa (inc. Russia)
America (inc. Israel)
Low Risk
Medium Risk
High Risk
The scores blend such that the following score
ranges apply 4.1 - 5.0Low Risk 3.1 -
4.0Medium Risk1.0 - 3.0High Risk based on
uncertainty
Countries 84 Dec. /191 Mar.
High Risk 4th Q or Unknown
Medium Risk 3rd Q
Low Risk 2nd Q or Before
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Countries of Major and Significant Interest to
the U.S.(as determined by International Traffic
Patterns, sorted by Perceived Risk)
Level of Risk
Low
Medium
High
Major Interest gt 200M Minutes
Significant Interest Between 200M - 100M Minutes
Total 1997 Traffic 29,106 mMitt
Country Name (Millions of Annual Minutes)
Countries 53
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Y2K Risk to U.S. International TrafficTo and
From Countries with greater than 100mMitt Total
Traffic
mMitt Source Telegeography, Inc.
mMitt million of Minutes of Intercontinental
Telecommunications Traffic
Countries 53
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Review of Year 2000 Recommendationsfrom 14
January 1998 Report

• Increase Wireless participation from CTIA and FCC
  data collection
• Covered in the FCC report, NRIC will not use in
  Network assessment
• Map Key Government Installations to coverage
  areas (in process)
• Using NCS inquiry to USG
• NARUC offices to obtain small company status
• Risk methodology added to plan completeness
• Draft definition of Done - to be included in
  round 3
• Individual companies need to indicate results
• Assess impact with other sectors
• Tri-industry group meetings have begun
• Electric - Telecommunications - Oil Gas
• NRIC working with International Y2K Telecom User
  Alliance, ITU, FCC, and State Department on
  international status assessments