NRIC Focus Group One Subcommittee 1 Network Assessment

1
NRIC Focus Group OneSubcommittee 1Network
Assessment

• January 14, 1999
• Gerry Roth
• Vice President
• GTE Technology Programs

This document and the information contained
herein is intended, and for all purposes shall be
deemed, a Year 2000 statement and a Year 2000
readiness disclosure as those terms are defined
under United States federal law
2
Scope of Effort

• Provide assessment of Year 2000 compliance of
  Public Switch Telephone Network (PSTN)
• Participants
• 7 Large Local Exchange Carriers (LEC) 98.5
• 22 Medium to Small Local Exchange Carriers
  .5
• 3 Large Inter-Exchange Carriers (IXC) 82.0
• For addition in April following FCC questionnaire
• Wireless
• Cable
• Satellite
• International Assessment
• Presentation by relative risk and potential
  impact of Year 2000 non-compliance
• Risk to U.S. ranked by traffic volume
• Methodology
• Direct query of Large Local Exchange Carrier and
  Inter-Exchange Carrier Participants in November
• September 1998 and December 1998 (estimates)
• Indirect query of medium and small Local Exchange
  Carriers
• September 1998 only
• International
• 6 data sources--risk assessments weighted and
  combined

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Participating Local Exchange Carriers
Inter-Exchange CarriersIndustry Coverage
Coverage by Participating Inter-Exchange
Carriers (as a percentage of 1997 Total IXC
Revenue)
Coverage by Participating Local Exchange
Carriers (as a percentage of Total U.S. Access
Lines)
Others 1
Others 18
Participating Companies 99
Participating Companies 82
Total 95.1B Participating 78.3B
Total 193.6M Participating 190M
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Y2K AssessmentCoverage by Participating Carriers
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Y2K Lifecycle Compliance StatusLarge and Medium
Size Local Exchange Carriers
September 30, 1998
Awareness
Renovation
Validation
Implementation
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Y2K U.S. Public Switched Telephone Network
Compliance StatusLarge and Medium Size Local
Exchange Carriers
September 30, 1998
Switches Y2K Ready
Non-Switch Network Components Y2K Ready
Network IS Applications Y2K Ready
Large Companies
Midsize and Small Companies
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Y2K Lifecycle Compliance StatusRate of
ChangeLarge Local Exchange Carriers
September - December 1998
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Large Local Exchange Carrier Compliance
StatusRate of Change
September - December 1998
100
90
85
86
79
80
73
70
64
63
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Switches Y2K Ready
Non-Switch Network Components Y2K Ready
Network IS Applications Y2K Ready
9
Public Switched Telephone Network Y2K Readiness
Major Inter-Exchange Carriers
December 31, 1998
Switches Y2K Ready
Non-Switch Network Components Y2K Ready
Network IS Applications Y2K Ready
10
International Status by Region Perceptions of
Risk
5.0
Low
4.0
Medium
Regional Range of Responses
Level of Risk
3.0
Regional Average Score
High
2.0
1.0
Asia Pacific
North America
Sub Sahara Africa
Indian sub continent
Middle East North
Africa (not Israel)
Eastern Europe (inc.
Russia)
Western Europe (inc.
Cent South America
Israel)
The scores blend such that the following score
ranges apply 4.1 - 5.0 Low Risk 3.1 -
4.0 Medium Risk 1.0 - 3.0 High Risk
based on uncertainty
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International Status by CountryPerceptions of
Risk
Level of Risk
Bermuda
Panama
USA
UK
Low
Netherlands
Hong Kong
Australia
5.0
Singapore
Canada
Ireland
Spain
Peru
Caribbean Is.
New Zealand
Switzerland
Belgium
Portugal
Sweden
Norway
France
Bahrain
Chile
Finland
Taiwan
Czech Rep
Bulgaria
Austria
Poland
Sudan
U.A.E.
Germany
Malaysia
Hungary
Japan
Fiji
4.0
South Africa
Italy
Puerto Rico
Denmark
Pakistan
Thailand
Jordan
Turkey
Israel
So. Korea
Mozambique
Indonesia
Brazil
Russia
India
Medium
Argentina
Chad
Venezuela
Mexico
3.0
Philippines
Lithuania
Zimbabwe
China
Cambodia
Sri Lanka
Yugoslavia
No. Korea
Romania
Morocco
Uruguay
Kenya
Saudi Arabia
Costa Rica
Armenia
Ecuador
Ethiopia
2.0
The scores blend such that the following score
ranges apply 4.1 - 5.0 Low Risk 3.1 -
4.0 Medium Risk 1.0 - 3.0 High Risk based
on uncertainty
Kuwait
Nepal
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
El Salvador
Guatemala
Columbia
Vietnam
Somalia
Nigeria
Egypt
Zaire
Laos
High
1.0
0.0
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International Status by CountryPerceptions of
Risk Impact
13
Countries of Major and Significant Interest to
the U.S.(as determined by Intercontinental
Traffic Patterns, sorted by Perceived Risk)
Minutes of use from 1995 Data (Source ING
Barings
- Telecommunications Map of the World, 2nd
Edition, September 1997)
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Y2K Risk to U.S. Intercontinental Traffic
(determination of risk by country of originating
/ terminating traffic)
High Risk 1645 mMitt
Medium Risk 4728 mMitt
21
36
43
Low Risk 5599 mMitt
Source Telecommunications Map of the World, 2nd
Edition, September 1997
mMiTT million Minutes of Intercontinental
Telecommunications Traffic
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Year 2000 Assessment Conclusions

• General
• All participating companies are progressing at
  approximately the same rate
• Small companies somewhat behind the larger ones
• Progress to date is very encouraging
• All participating companies on a trajectory for
  timely completion of PSTN
• Results of this study become a good benchmark for
  non participating companies to follow
• Local Exchange Carriers (LEC)
• Participating LECs cover 99 of all switched
  access lines in U.S.
• Small to medium companies lag large Local
  Exchange Carriers by 10-15
• All participating companies were better than 65
  complete by September 1998
• December estimate at 76
• Readiness
• All large companies projecting readiness complete
  June 30, 1999
• Medium and small LECs
• 50 by end of 2nd Quarter 1999
• 32 by end of 3rd
• 18 by end of 4th
• Participating companies are 29/1300 99 of all
  access lines
• 1271 companies constitute the remaining 1

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Conclusions

• Inter-Exchange Carriers (IXC)
• Participating IXCs represent 82 of
  inter-exchange market
• Most network elements have been certified
  compliant and are being rolled out
• Participating IXCs will be in a position to
  support the LEC completion date of June 30, 1999
• Major IXCs at 60 readiness or better as of
  September 1998
• December estimate at 81
• All IXCs project a June 30, 1999 readiness

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Conclusions

• International
• North America, Asia Pacific, and Western Europe
  are medium to low risk
• North East Asia, Middle East North Africa, and
  Eastern Europe are medium to high risk
• Central South America, India Subcontinent,
  Sub Sahara Africa are high risk
• Regions and countries of most concern to U.S.
  identified
• Regional impact of risk varies widely by country
  and telecom provider
• Most information is based on perception of risk
  or is anecdotal -- based on inconsistent and
  unofficial information

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Recommendations

• Increase activity in Wireless assessment led by
  FCC
• Map key U.S. Government installations nationwide
  to telecom compliance areas
• U.S. Government engage in direct inquiry on Y2K
  status to countries determined essential to U.S.
  telecommunication traffic patterns
• Work with the ITU, U.S. State Department, and
  others to accurately assess the true risk to the
  U.S.
• Add the risk of methodology inconsistencies to
  perceived completeness of plans
• Specifically test deficiencies
• Effective quality programs
• Assess results of this study with respect to
  other economic sectors to determine potential
  secondary risks and impacts

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Recommendations

• A more proactive role should be undertaken by the
  FCC (working the appropriate government offices)
  to support those countries requesting assistance
  from the ITU and World Bank and/or that have high
  telecommunications traffic with the U.S.
• For countries whose Year 2000 readiness may be an
  issue to U.S. companies, we recommend that the
  FCC assign an International Contingency Planning
  Coordinator to support interested U.S. companies
  in their contingency planning around regions or
  specific countries that are perceived to be high
  Y2K risk

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Summary

• Public Switched Wireline and Long Distance
  Telephone Operations in the United States (and
  North America) appear to be on an appropriate
  path for Year 2000 compliant operations
• More and better information is required for a
  complete global assessment, including wireless
  and cable operations
• Lack of information in and of itself does not
  necessarily indicate lack of progress

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Future Work

• Marry FCC questionnaire results in NRIC sources
  for a more inclusive report
• Update International data sources and measure
  their improvement
• Re-question the LEC and IXC data sources for
• validation of December 1999 data
• Actual data for February 1999
• Estimation targets for March 1999
• Increase Wireless participation and measure their
  network completion