8Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Modeling to Support the Georgia SIP

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8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Modeling to Support the
Georgia SIP
James Boylan, Amit Marmur, Maudood Khan, and Dan
CohanVISTAS Joint Work Group MeetingDurham,
NCSeptember 23, 2005

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Attainment Status in Georgia
Ozone non-attainment areas
PM2.5 non-attainment areas
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Air Quality in Atlanta
Ozone 4th highest values (1997-2004)
PM2.5 composition (2001-2003)
Design value (JST) 17.4 ?g/m3
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VISTAS 12 km Modeling

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Ozone in Atlanta (May)
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Ozone in Atlanta (June)
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Ozone in Atlanta (July)
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Ozone in Atlanta (August)
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Ozone in Atlanta (September)
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Future Ozone Design Values

• Calculated for all sites in Georgia
• 2002 and 2009 BaseD emissions
• 5-year weighted Design Values
• RRF cut-off of 85 ppb when gt 10 days
• Used maximum value in 3 x 3 matrix

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Future Ozone Design Values

• Need ozone buffer below 85 ppb (e.g., 4 ppb in
  Atlanta)

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Georgia EPD Modeling

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VISTAS 12 km
ALGA 12 km
GA 4 km
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Episode Selection

• CART (Classification And Regression Tree)
  analysis
• Ozone Atlanta, Macon, Chattanooga, Augusta,
  Columbus
• PM2.5 Atlanta, Macon, Chattanooga
• Summer Episode May 25 - June 25, 2002
• Winter Episode Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002

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Maximum 8-Hour Ozone
Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 20022009 emissions
Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 20022002 emissions
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Episode Average PM2.5
Episode average PM2.5 concentration2002
emissions
Episode average PM2.5 concentration2009
emissions
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Regional Sensitivities

• Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3)
• 10 Emission Reductions
• NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon
• 12-km ALGA domain
• 4-km for summertime VOCs (?)
• Emission Regions
• Atlanta, Macon, Columbus, Chattanooga, Athens,
  Floyd County

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NOx and VOCs in Atlanta
Sensitivity to a 10 reduction in non-power plant
anthropogenic NOx in the Atlanta area on June 12,
2002
Sensitivity to a 10 reduction in non-power plant
anthropogenic VOC in the Atlanta area on June 12,
2002
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NOx and VOCs in Macon
Sensitivity to a 10 reduction in non-power plant
anthropogenic NOx in the Macon area on June 13,
2002
Sensitivity to a 10 reduction in non-power plant
anthropogenic VOC in the Macon area on June 13,
2002
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Carbon and SO2 in Atlanta
Sensitivity to a 10 reduction in non-power plant
anthropogenic primary carbon in the Atlanta area
episode average
Sensitivity to a 10 reduction in non-power plant
anthropogenic SO2 in the Atlanta area episode
average
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Point Source Sensitivities

• Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3)
• SCR (NOx) and Scrubber (SO2) Reductions
• 12-km ALGA domain

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EGU Controls Ozone
Sensitivity to a 68 reduction in NOx (2 SCRs)
from Plant McDonough on June 12, 2002
Sensitivity to a 53 reduction in NOx (4 SCRs)
from Plant Scherer on June 3, 2002
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EGU Controls PM2.5
Sensitivity to a 95 reduction in SO2 (4
scrubbers) and a 68 reduction in NOx (4 SCRs)
from Plant Scherer episode average
Sensitivity to a 88 reduction in SO2 (2
scrubbers) from Plant Bowen episode average
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High Ozone Day
McDonough (68)
Branch (34)
Hammond (68)
Scherer (63)
Yates (33)
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Episode Average PM2.5
McDonough (95,68)
Bowen (88, NA)
Branch (95,34)
Hammond (95,68)
Wansley ( 87, NA)
Scherer (95,63)
Yates (63,33)
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Regional Sensitivities
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Point Source Sensitivities
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Current Future Modeling

• Regional and Point Emission Sensitivities
• Winter Episode (ALGA 12 km)
• Generate and Apply CART Weights
• Seasonal ozone and annual PM2.5 responses
• 4 km Ozone Sensitivities (?)
• Annual and Seasonal Control Simulations
• ALGA 36 km grid for regional haze
• ALGA 12 km grid for PM2.5
• GA 4 km grid for ozone

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Jim BoylanGeorgia Dept. of Natural
Resources4244 International Parkway, Suite
120Atlanta, GA 30354james_boylan_at_dnr.state.ga.u
s 404-362-4851
Contact Information