2004 Review and 2005 Forecast

1
2004 Review and 2005 Forecast

• Presented by
• Janet Harrah
• Director
• Center for Economic Development and Business
  Research
• Wichita State University
• December 2004

2
Signs of Recovery for 2005

• Retail sales up
• Consumer confidence up
• Employee call-backs
• New firms enter mkt.
• WSU LEI up, growth likely

3
Economic Challenges Ahead

• 15,000 aircraft workers still unemployed
• Potential sale of Boeing?

4
Modest Recovery for 2005

• Economy improves in 2005
• Recovery not evenly spread

5
Current Conditions Index
Improving
Highest level in 5 years
6
Leading Economic Indicators Index Rising
Growth accelerating
7
Consumer Expectations Index
Improving
but prices, interest rates to rise?
8
2004 Labor Market

• Employment
• down 0.8
• Unemployment
• claims
• down 24.1

9
2004 Labor Market

• Avg. manufacturing
• hours worked
• up 2.2
• Avg. manufacturing
• earnings
• up 7.7

10
2004 Labor Market-Job Losses

• Manufacturing
• 1,900 jobs
• Transportation
• 700 jobs

11
2004 Labor Market-Job Gains

• Prof./Business services
• 475 jobs
• Other services
• 275 jobs
• Health care
• 170 jobs

12
Labor Market Forecast 2005

• Employment
• Up 1.6
• or
• 4,300 jobs

13
Consumer Spending

• 2/3 of U.S. economy
• Confidence improving
• Income growth flat
• Little growth in 2005 spending

14
2004 Production Sector Employment

• Down 2.4
• or
• 1,800 jobs
• 3rd quarter improvement
• up 0.7
• or
• 500 jobs

15
Production Sector Employment Forecast 2005

• Up 2.2
• or
• 1,600 jobs

16
2004 Construction

• New residential
• up 24.3
• New commercial
• up 45.1

17
Construction Outlook 2005

• Public construction slowing?
• Large projects on horizon
• Downtown arena
• New airport terminal

18
Construction Employment Forecast 2005

• Up 0.7
• or
• 100 jobs

19
Manufacturing Outlook

• 2 major stories
• Employee call-backs
• Potential sale of Boeing Wichita

20
Manufacturing Outlook

• Increased deliveries
• Boeing up 3.8
• General aviation deliveries
• Up 7.7
• New aircraft coming online
• Orders up

21
Manufacturing Employment Forecast 2005

• Up 2.6
• or
• 1,500 jobs

22
2004 Trade Sector Employment

• Down 1.5
• or
• 700 jobs
• Third quarter 2004
• Down 0.3
• or
• 130 jobs

23
Trade Sector Employment Forecast 2005

• Up 0.4
• or
• 200 jobs

24
2004 Retail Trade

• 2003 retail sales
• Down 1.1
• or
• 75 million
• 1st half 2004 retail sales
• Up 2.3
• or
• 77 million

25
2004 Service Sector Employment

• Up 0.4
• or
• 500 jobs
• Third quarter improvement
• Up 0.5
• or 600 jobs

26
2004 Service Sector Employment

• Job gains
• Professional/business services
• Education/healthcare services
• Other services

27
2004 Service Sector Employment

• Job losses
• Information services
• Financial services
• Leisure/hospitality

28
Service Sector Employment Forecast 2005

• Up 2.1
• or
• 2,500 jobs

29
Call Centers

• Continued job losses
• MCI
• Viking Office Products
• Bank of America Loan Center
• Nearly 1,000 jobs overall

30
Health Care

• Profits squeezed, but
• Facilities, staff expansion continues

31
Tourism

• 2003
• 3.4 million visitors
• spend 355.7 million
• National conventions here
• 2004
• 2007
• 2011

32
Hospitality

• 2004 Hotel occupancy rate
• 64.3, up from
• 59.4 in 2003
• New hotels going up

33
Forecast Summary 2005

• Total wage/salary employment
• Up 1.6
• or
• 4,300 jobs

34
Forecast Summary 2005

• Employment totals for
• Natural resources/mining
• Wholesale trade
• Transportation, Warehousing Utilities
• UNCHANGED

35
Forecast Summary 2005

• Construction employment
• Up 0.7
• or
• 100 jobs

36
Forecast Summary 2005

• Manufacturing employment
• Up 2.6
• or
• 1,500 jobs

37
Forecast Summary 2005

• Retail trade employment
• Up 0.7
• or
• 200 jobs

38
Forecast Summary 2005

• Information services employment
• Up 3.6
• or
• 200 jobs

39
Forecast Summary 2005

• Financial services employment
• Down 1.6
• or
• 200 jobs

40
Forecast Summary 2005

• Professional, business services employment
• Up 3.7
• or
• 1,000 jobs

41
Forecast Summary 2005

• Educational, health services employment
• Up 2.1
• or
• 800 jobs

42
Forecast Summary 2005

• Leisure, hospitality employment
• Up 0.9
• or
• 200 jobs

43
Forecast Summary 2005

• Other services employment
• Up 4.2
• or
• 500 jobs

44
Forecast Summary 2005

• Government employment
• UNCHANGED