Custom Applications for Calculating Transit Operating Statistics from Travel Demand Forecasting Outp

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PLANNING APPLICATIONS 2007
Custom Applications for Calculating Transit
Operating Statistics from Travel Demand
Forecasting Output
The Denver RTD OpStats 2.0 Transit Operating
Statistics Model
May 9, 2007
Herbert Higginbotham Connetics Transportation
Group
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Background

• Pre-2001 RTDs operating statistics for
  long-range planning are calculated by manually
  entering route-by-route data into a spreadsheet
• 2001 First OpStats model produces bus statistics
  from MinUTP travel demand model output
• 2004 RTD initiates the FasTracks program,
  amplifying the need to quickly produce bus and
  rail statistics for alternatives analysis
• 2006 Model is redesigned as RTD OpStats 2.0
  updated to read TransCAD travel demand model
  output and adding a rail statistics module

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Typical Alternatives Analysis
Operating Assumptions
Period Lengths, Recovery Factors, Annualization
Factors, etc.
Travel Demand Model
Capital and OM Cost Models
ManuallyGenerated Spreadsheet Computations
Route Headways, Times Distances
Systemwide Vehicles, Hours, and Miles
Automation Gap

• Replicating calibrated calculations for several
  alternatives can take hours and days

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The Automation Gap

• Repeatable tasks like data preparation and
  summation occupy precious time and introduce
  human error
• Statistics formulas tend to embed assumptions,
  leaving them less likely to be consistent or
  updated across routes or alternatives
• Results must be calculated by an experienced user
  every time, making tasks difficult to share or
  transfer
• Calibrating or testing various operating
  parameters is slow and cumbersome

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Analysis with an Automated Model
Operating Assumptions
Period Lengths, Recovery Factors, Annualization
Factors, etc.
Travel Demand Model
Capital and OM Cost Models
Route Headways, Times Distances
Systemwide Vehicles, Hours, and Miles

• Accurate operating statistics produced in seconds
  allow planners more time for data analysis

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Benefits of the OpStats 2.0 Model

• Speed
• Manual Run 1-2 hours or longer
• OpStats 2.0 Run 5-8 seconds
• Accuracy
• Computations are built-in no errors from
  miscopied formulas or unreferenced worksheets
• Facilitates fast and accurate model calibration
  across multiple modes and vehicle types
• User-Friendly
• Familiar Excel interface and easy-to-use controls
  allow even novice users to get results quickly

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Benefits of the OpStats 2.0 Model

• Functionality
• Quickly vary systemwide operating assumptions
• Produces operating statistics with and without
  passenger demand equilibration
• Stores countless alternative runs and reruns
  simplifies comparison between multiple scenarios
• Adaptability
• Small file sizes allow sharing among many users
• Open architecture allows advanced users to modify
  formulas and structures to meet shifting agency
  needs

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Opening the Model
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Model Input Assumptions
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Running the Model
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Running the Model
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Model Results Summaries
Some rows have been hidden to show the most
pertinent data
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Model Results Bus Routes
Some columns have been hidden to show the most
pertinent data
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Model Results Rail Routes
Some columns have been hidden to show the most
pertinent data
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Model Run History
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Model Calibration

• General procedure
• Operating assumptions replicating base year
  conditions are input into the model
• OpStats 2.0 is executed with travel demand model
  output from the base year validation run
• Results are compared to actual service data for
  the base year, adjusting period lengths and run
  time factors as needed

Denver RTD Calibration

• Results from a base year 2005 travel demand model
  run were processed in OpStats 2.0 and compared to
  2005 actual data
• Model-generated bus statistics were within 5 of
  actual statistics and model-generated rail
  statistics were within 5 to 10 of actual
  statistics

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Potential Applications

• FTA New and Small Starts Process
• Requires detailed and accurate operating
  statistics and associated cost data
• Alternatives Analysis, MIS, EIS
• Run and compare multiple scenarios quickly
• SRTP, LRTP, Operational or Financial Analyses
• Generates the statistics needed to quickly cost
  out constrained and unconstrained plans
• Transit Agency What If Scenario Analysis
• Test the effects of potential service changes
  (e.g., increasing service spans, changing load
  standards, etc)

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Potential Add-in Features

• Stored assumptions sets
• Allows user to run with one of several pre- and
  user-defined operating parameter sets stored in
  the model
• Multi-operator data sets
• Useful for regional or large urban studies that
  cover multiple agencies and/or operating
  environments
• Alternatives comparison module
• Allows user to select one model run as a baseline
  and several others to compare to it
• Cost model integration
• Model can be programmed to directly export data
  to a separate cost model, or can be designed as
  part of an all-inclusive operating statistics and
  cost model

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Model Specifications

• Platform MS Excel 2000
• Is also compatible with Excel 98 and Excel 2003
• Language MS Visual Basic 6.3
• Underlying programming language of MS Excel
• System Requirements
• Windows 98, 2000, ME, XP
• Minimum 500 MHz processor speed
• Minimum 250 MB RAM
• File Sizes
• Program file 687 KB
• Output files 1.6 MB

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Acknowledgements
The Denver RTD OpStats 2.0 model was developed by
Connetics Transportation Group in cooperation
with

• The Denver Regional Transportation District
• (project conception, funding, review, and
  management)
• Bill Van Meter
• Dave Hollis
• Lee Cryer
• David Krutsinger
• AECOM
• (TransCAD code-writing)
• Manish Jain

Our deepest thanks for their guidance and support
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