An Examination of some Road Based B.O.T Projects in India with Special Reference to Traffic Forecasting

1
An Examination of some Road Based B.O.T Projects
inIndia with Special Reference to Traffic
Forecasting
National Seminar on PPP in Road and Transport
Infrastructure

• Dr S. L Dhingra         Institute Chair
  Professor Emeritus FellowTransportation
  Systems EnggCivil Engineering Department, IIT
  Bombay

2
Contents

• Challenges of Urbanization
• PPP
• Private Sector Interest
• Transportation Infrastructure Projects From
  Conception to Implementation
• Fund Sources
• Risks and Uncertainty in Projects
• Effects of Toll rates in traffic projections
• B.O.T projects based on government support and
  guarantees.
• Conclusion

3
Challenges of Urbanization
4
Urbanisation

• Urban areas contribute 75 of GDP and more than
  50 of our population to live in urban areas by
  2050.
• Rurbanisation of the countryside to pose newer
  challenges.
• Cities would be the key drivers to our economy
  but
• unless a focused approach coupled with heavy
  investment in urban infrastructure is put in

Urban areas would keep presenting 100000 problems
which in essence are 100 problems multiplied 1000
times
5
Growing Demand for Urban Infrastructure
6
(No Transcript)
7
Multifarious Responsibilities Limited Resources

• Local Government Expenses vary between 20-29 in
  developed countries while they are only 7-8 in
  India
• Limited revenue base and dependent fiscal
  Jurisdiction
• Fairly Large Capital Investment decisions being
  thrust upon municipalities

8
Infrastructure Bottleneck

• Infrastructure is the biggest bottleneck in
  India Growth Story
• Transport system has severe capacity constraints
  highways, city roads, airports, seaports and
  railways
• Urban and Utility infrastructure Huge
  demand-supply gap in drinking water, sewerage
  system, drainage and power supply
• India needs US 480 billion investment in the
  coming Five Year Plan to meet current
  Infrastructure needs, at least 20 of this would
  be for the Urban Sector

9
Existing Scenario

• Most towns and cities are growing Like this!

10
Quality of life
11
How we cope, presently
Premji raps Karnataka Govt for bad roads, power
situation in Sarjapur Our Bureau Bangalore ,
July 18
12
Private Sector Interest?

• Urban Infrastructure, has not yet found investor
  interest in the absence of clear directions on
  various aspects - Risk, social/ political,
  Regulatory, cost recovery mechanisms, etc.
• Various attempts are being made to convert Urban
  Service (water, waste-water, Solid waste, etc)
  into Bankable projects
• This is likely to open a new area for
  investments
• And a new breed of Operating companies to
  provide these services
• But proper PROJECT DEVELOPMENT is the key here

13
Total Private Sector Investments in Indias
Infrastructure

• Year of Investment Energy Telecom Transport
  Water and sewage Total
• 1990 0 0 2 0 2
• 1991 614 0 0 0 614
• 1992 13 0 0 0 13
• 1993 1,051 0 0 0 1,051
• 1994 311 97 125 0 533
• 1995 1,008 683 0 0 1,691
• 1996 1,553 1,229 108 0 2,890
• 1997 970 3,827 405 0 5,201
• 1998 1,066 673 296 0 2,035
• 1999 2,500 1,045 467 0 4,012
• 2000 2,357 682 100 0 3,139
• 2001 45 3,445 211 2 4,004
• 2002 380 4,615 558 0 5,553
• 2003 825 1,968 505 0 3,298
• 2004 4,144 3,731 1,117 0 8,992
• 2005 755 6,201 1,449 0 8,405

14
Beginnings made

• May not be all success stories, but
• Tamil Nadu
• Tirupur, Alandur, TNUDF Pooled Finance
• Municipal Bond issues
• Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Nashik
• Urban infrastructure funds IFCG, Feedback
  U-Fund and MUIF
• Not Successful
• BATF in BangaloreBangalore Agenda Task Force
• The Bangalore Agenda Task Force is meant to be a
  partnership between the citizens, corporates and
  the administrative agencies the BMP, BDA, BMTC,
  ...
• Water OM PSPs (attempts!) in Pune, Goa,
  Bangalore, Hyderabad

15
Pooled Finance

• TNUDF sponsored issue, successful in Tamil Nadu
• USAID (DCA) guarantee for 50 of principal
• Karnataka (KUIDFC) pursued similar issue
• Government of Indias proposed PFDF, also a
  pointer in this direction
• Yet to take off
• Issues of listing Trust-financed Bonds (SEBI),
  would have to be addressed to ensure a market for
  these instruments

16
Pooled Finance (2)
17
Viability Gap Funding

• Proposed by Government of India
• To Prop-up marginally viable projects
• Established and clear guidelines for allocation
• Problem may be in the lack of developed and
  structured projects, that are eligible to claim
  this assistance

18
Capital Market Access

• Bond issues of Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, BMP, Nashik
  etc., have not led to large-scale replication
• Issues of market appetite, end-use
• Limited number of ULBs which can access financing
  on a standalone basis
• Pooled Finance seems a more appropriate structure
  for small ULBs

19
Access to Domestic Financial Institutions

• For the Local Body
• Reluctance of Local bodies to accept FI
  conditions typically stipulated to mitigate
  project risks
• ULBs have option of (a) FIs assistance (cash flow
  basis with conditions) Vs (b) MLA funding/ Govt.
  Institutions ( GoI/ State guaranteed soft push,
  if any)
• ULB prefers the latter to the former (obvious!)
• For the Domestic Institution
• Guaranteed lending (state/ central) is no more
  risk-free, from regulatory considerations

20
PPP Some reasons to be optimistic

• Realization of need for improvement of Urban
  Services, and concurrently, the finance needed
  for doing so
• Various precedents are being tried and tested,
  and experience is maturing
• But yet a long way to go
• Key Words
• Not Finance, but Developed Bankable Projects
• Not Willingness to Pay, but Unwillingness to
  Charge

21
PPP Approach
Goal

• Attract private investments for infrastructure
  projects

• Lack of Budgetary Resources
• Need to improve efficiency in service delivery

Need
PPP approach

• Private Sector contribution for
• - Financial investments
• - Best Management practices
• - Efficiency in service delivery
• - Efficient use of capital resources
• Public Sector contribution limited to
• - Providing institutional commitment to
  project
• - Project Development Selection of
  Developer
• - Viability gap funding (VGF), if any

22
Background Issues

• Ability to create a shelf of projects?
• Project development requires funds and continuous
  support
• Strengthening the capabilities of the mandated
  agency to create experiential learning
• Standardized processes for Viability support for
  projects not viable on stand alone basis
• No need to reinvent the wheel every time, learn
  from peers

Debate has shifted from financing of
infrastructure projects to creation of a shelf of
projects.
23
Structure
24
A PPP is not a transfer of responsibility

• A PPP project DOES NOT Mean that the Government
  has little or no onus
• Its objective has to be synergy between the
  private public sectors
• Areas such as land acquisition, clearances,
  utilities, etc., can still be best done only by
  the Government

25
What are the advantages of private sector
participation ?

• If properly structured and incentivized, the
  private sector can provide a more efficient or
  cost-effective service.
• The private sector often has better access to
  capital financing and so it is able to use more
  efficient equipment.
• The private sector may have easier access to
  specialist skills. For example companies can form
  joint ventures with international specialist
  firms.

26
Putting the projects on shelf
Project Preparation
Partnership Management
Project Identification
Viability
Structuring
Do-ability
Procurement Strategy
Bid Process Management Pre-bid
Bid Process Management Post-bid
Identification/ Assessment

• Requires Project Preparation Partnership
  Management
• Inca is the nodal agency mandated to do the above

State need to enhance the involvement of private
sector need a PPP! The challenge is the right
model and right process for engagement of private
sector!
27
Identification Stage

• To convert wish list into a list of projects that
  are viable and amenable for PPP.

Objective

• Prelim assessment of the opportunity
• Prelim assessment of possibility of a PPP
• Presence of necessary ingredients land, land
  use, basic approvals

Activities
28
Preparation Stage

• Assessing feasibility and structuring the PPP
  (Value for Money) (Risk Return Ratio)

Objective

• Assessment of Market opportunity
• Technical Financial Feasibility
• Financial structuring
• Sharing of risk and Structuring PPP

Activities
29
Partner Selection Stage

• To select Private Sector Partner in an open and
  transparent manner

Objective

• Technical and financial capability criteria
• Equal information sharing and support to all
  bidders
• Rigorous specifications Contract
• Efficient and time bound bidding process

Activities
30
Project Development Process
Track 2

• PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
• Techno-Economic Market Assessment
• Legal Documentation
• Policy amendments and notification
• Contractual and Institutional Framework

• DEVELOPER SEARCH
• Expression of Interest
• Request for Proposal (RFP)
• Pre-Bid Conferences
• Proposal Evaluation
• Finalisation of Developer
• Finalisation of Agreements

• MARKETING COMMUNICATION
• One-to-one meetings
• Direct Mailers
• Media release
• Road Shows
• Investors Conferences
• Facilitating Consortia formation

Government Approvals, Facilitation Decision
Making
31
Different Structures
32
Transportation Infrastructure Projects From
Conception to Implementation
33
The Stages

• Conception
• Identification of project alternatives
• Selection of the best alternative
• Implementation
• Construction of the project
• Operation and Maintenance

34
(No Transcript)
35
Classic Four-Stage Sequential Travel Demand Model
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution Demand
Modal Split
Traffic Assignment Supply
Considering Environmental Protection Economy
36
Travel Demand Modeling Planning Variables

• Study area
• Internal zones
• External zones
• Plan Periods
• Demographic and Socio-economic data
• Protection of planning variables
• Transport network
• Origin and Destination Survey

37
Tij
38
Travel Demand Modeling Other Approaches

• Equilibrium Demand Modeling
• Traveler as consumer of transit trips
• Micro Economics - Utility Maximization
• Activity based analysis (Factors)
• Individual Traveler Level
• Type and Time of Activity
• Community Level
• Social Level
• Destination by mode
• Congestion

39
Transport Priority Indices (TPI) in a Systems
Framework

• The Need -
• Huge investments involved and priority needs to
  be given to villages with higher population and
  potential market surplus.
• The proposals discussed are those initiated by
• the State Government of Karnataka
• the Indonesian rural roads study group
• the ARD (Accelerated Rural Development) road
  network of Thailand

40
Organizational Setup for Planning and Prioritizing

• Formation of Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
• Preparation of proposal/tender document
• Guidelines for selection of tenders
• Pre-bid selection
• Selection of PMC
• Selection of contractors
• Proof consultants

41
UNDP - Government of India Project on Pro-poor
Globalisation

• Aim
• Informed and participatory pro-poor policy
  making, strategy and programme formulation
• Methodology
• Review of already conducted research on pro-poor
  and anti-poor impacts of globalisation
• Additional research and analysis
• Involvement of the poor in the policy dialogue
• Making information accessible to lay- person

42
Methodology for Selection of Proposal

• Organisations short-listed on the basis of
  initial proposals
• Selection of 3 top-ranked proposals based on
  their presentations
• Initial contract awarded to these 3 organisations
  to further refine and detail their proposal, work
  plan and project strategy.
• Review of final proposals by a panel
• Project awarded to the highest ranked proposal

43
Decision Making

• Importance of decision making at every stage
  during the project
• Two important steps in the decision making
  process
• Course of action, which contains recognition,
  discovery and contraction of ideas
• Finding alternative strategies
• Decision making is complex due to multiplicity of
  attributes

44
Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)

• Importance in design and planning
• Some MCDM techniques
• Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
• Fuzzy Set Methodology
• Metagame Theory

45
Analytical Hierarchy Process

• Basic principles of AHP
• Hierarchic representation and decomposition
• Priority discrimination and synthesis
• Logical consistency
• Series of pair-wise comparisons carried out to
  obtain the preference order
• Each decision alternative assigned a weight
• Weights represent the alternatives desirability

46

• Applications in fields like
• conflict analysis
• operations research
• portfolio selection
• bid evaluation
• capital budgeting

47
FUZZY SET ANALYSIS
Transportation planning involves Qualitative and
quantitative analysis including uncertain
Attributes and Characteristics. Fuzzy Analysis
takes care of this important aspect of
transportation planning.
48

• FUZZY LOGIC
• Fuzziness in Transportation Analysis
• In the study of transportation problems,
  fuzziness is
• found in many aspects of analysis
• Perception of data and information,
• Knowledge base,
• Statement of goals and objectives, and
• Problem definition.

49
METHODOLOGY
The following are the steps of the methodology
1. Identifying the modes which will form
attributes (i,e., factors) of those
coordinated modes.
2. Categorizing different interest groups.
3. Forming termed rating matrix, with columns as
modes and rows as factors.
4. Constructing of different rating matrices as
per the views of respective interest groups
5. Aggregation of rating matrices
6. Forming dominance matrix from the dominance
of one mode over the other mode
7. Calculating the share of service by each
mode in a coordinated system.
50
Case Study
The city of Calcutta, with five different mass
transit modes, is considered for the case
study.
51
Case Study
The attributes considered for each mode are
52
Case Study
Rating matrix for commuters opinion
53
Case Study
Rating Matrix for Planners Opinion
54
ADVANTAGES

• helps in the resolution of conflicts between
  parties having a difference of opinion.
• a non-quantitative method of analysis
• LIMITATIONS
• quite complicated in case of multi player and
  multi choice conditions
• May not always lead to a stable solution

55
CASE STUDIES

• The following case studies will be discussed
• Mumbai - Pune Expressway Project
• The 50 Flyovers Project (Mumbai Traffic
  Improvement Mega-Project)
• Western Freeway Sea Link Project
• Bandra - Worli Sea Link Project, etc.

56
Fund Sources
57
Funding Sources

• Public funds derived from general taxation
• Funds from Debt
• Long term debts
• Short term debts
• Funds from Equity
• Funds from users charges

58
Funding Sources

• Debt used around 60-90
• Equity used is 10-40
• Nearly the D/E ratio is more than 21

Sources of funding for BOT project ( Source
Malini 1997)
59
Funding Sources

• Schaufelberger Et.Al. (2003) has reported an
  alternate financial strategies for BOT Funding
• Using Equity to finance the construction work
• Refinancing with Debt after major completion of
  construction work

60
Various schemes for implementation

• BOT (Build/Operate/Transfer)
• BOOT (Build/Own/Operate/Transfer)
• BOO (Build/Own/Operate)
• BLOT (Build/Lease/Operate/Transfer)
• BOLT (Build/Operate/Lease/Transfer)
• LOT (Lease/Operate/Transfer)
• COT (Cooperate/Operate/Transfer)
• Annuity and Service Outsourcing

61
BOT
A Conceptual Model for the Operation of BOT
Scheme ( Source Malini 1997)
62
Government Funding

• Entire investment, construction, operating, and
  maintenance is by government
• Direct budgetary devolution (tax-payer money)
• Debt raised against government guarantees, (and
  letters of comfort)
• Financing primarily by HUDCO and LIC
• Financial requirements are increasing way beyond
  direct budgetary/ guarantee capacity
• State budget deficits and statutory guarantee
  limits constraining State Gov. funding capacity

63
Local Authority Funding

• After the 74th Amendment, there is increasingly,
  funding generated by the ULB
• Escrowing revenues such as property tax, entry
  tax/ octroi
• Selling/ securitizing land
• But there is a limit to these numbers

64
Multilateral/ Bilateral Funding

• World Bank, ADB, DFID
• Based on reform agenda
• Fairly detailed appraisals done
• Sectoral or project-wise
• Generally addresses needs of urban poor
• However, for commercial loans, based on
  Government of India Guarantees as security
• Very elaborate and complex processes

65
(No Transcript)
66
JNNURM

• Excellent scheme to lead reform-based financing
• Presents a new opportunity to
• Establish key reforms
• And thereby draw investment into key
  infrastructure
• But the scheme is available only to some cities
• Also focus towards commercial finance, which will
  be a significant percentage of the project
  investment PPPs are envisaged to be the way
  forward

67
Risks and Uncertainty in Projects
68
Risk and Uncertainty

• Risk and Uncertainty is always there for both the
  Government and Private Sector
• Risk is mainly of three types
• Financial Risk
• Political risk
• Currency Devaluation Risk

69
Risk and Uncertainty

• Financial Risk includes
• Termination Risk
• Regulation Risk
• Construction Risk
• Information Risk

70
Risk and Uncertainty

• Political risk arouse due to
• Change in government
• Change in policies
• Currency Devaluation risk is aroused when
• Finance/debt is been done by foreign companies

71
Treatments of Risks and Uncertainty in Projects

• The availability of partial or imperfect
  information about a problem leads to two new
  category of decision-making techniques
• Decisions under risk (In terms of a probability
  function)
• Decisions under Uncertainty (No probability
  function is secure)

72
Decisions under risk

• Decisions under risk are usually based on one of
  the following criteria
• Expected Value
• Combined Expected value and variance
• Known Aspiration level
• Most likely occurrence of a future state

73
Expected Value Criterion

• Expressed in terms of either actual money or its
  utility
• Decision Makers attitude towards the worth or
  utility of money is important
• The final decision should ultimately be made by
  considering all pertinent factors that affect the
  decision makers attitude towards the utility of
  money
• The drawback of this is that use of expected
  value criterion may be misleading fro the
  decisions that are applied only a few number of
  times i.e small sample sizes

74
Example 1

• A preventive maintenance policy requires making
  decisions about when a machine (or a piece of
  equipment) should be serviced on a regular basis
  in order to minimize the cost of sudden breakdown
• The decision situation is summarized as follows.
  A machine in a group of n machines is serviced
  when it breaks down. At the end of T periods,
  preventive maintenance is performed by servicing
  all n machines. The decision problem is to
  determine the optimum T that minimizes the total
  cost per period of servicing broken machines and
  applying preventive maintenance

75

• Let pt be the probability that machine would
  break down in period t
• Let nt be the random variable representing the
  number of broken machines in the same period.
• C1 is the cost of repairing a broken machine
• C2 the preventive maintenance of the machine
• The expected cost per period can be written as
• Where Ent is the expected number of broken
  machines in period t.
• nt is a binominal random variable with parameter
  (n,pt), Entnpt
• The necessary condition for T to minimize EC(T)
  are
• EC(T-1)gt EC(T) and EC(T1)gt EC(T)

76

• To illustrate the above formulation, suppose
  c1Rs.100, c2Rs.10 and n50
• The values of pt and EC(T) are tabulated below
• T

T pt Cumulative pt EC(T)
1 0.05 0 500
2 0.07 0.05 375
3 0.10 0.12 366.7
4 0.13 0.22 400
5 0.18 0.35 450
77
Multi-Modal International Hub Airport at Nagpur
78
MIHAN

• MASTER PLAN
• INTERNATIONAL HUB AIRPORT
• STATE OF ART AIRPORT
• RAIL ROAD TERMINAL
• SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE
• Health City
• Captive Power Plant
• IT Park
• INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL, HOTELS,
• ENTERTAINMEMNT AND RESIDENTIAL AREA

• Mahrashtra Airport Development Company Company
  Established By Government Of Mahrashtra
• Expansion of airport at Nagpur
• Development of Special Economic Zone (SEZ)

DEVELOPMENT CREATES JOBS, COMMERCE, TRADE AND
STABILTY.
79
International Hubbing Concept
80
OBJECTIVES

• An attractive hub Airport
• Financially viable bankable project
• Minimum social and environmental impact
• Develop self-generating traffic

81
Aerial view of Airport
82
AIRSIDE VIEW
83
SALIENT FEATURES OF THE PROJECT

• MIHAN project area 2535 Hectares
• Runways Existing runway to be extended to 4000m
  length and 60m width Provision made for an
  additional parallel runway 4000mx60m
• Terminal facilities a semi-circular terminal
  building 3,00,000 sqm area with an outer diameter
  of 810m. Separate international and domestic
  cargo terminals.
• Aircraft Parking - 50 aircrafts in the Terminal
  50 aircrafts remote.
• Projected Traffic 14 million passengers a year
  (70 international) and 8,70,000 tons of cargo
  (90 international) a year.
• Type of Airport International Hub Airport for
  Passengers Cargo
• Type of connectivity - Multi-Modal Airport,
  Railway Terminal for Passengers Goods, Truck
  Terminal, MRTS Terminal all in one Project
• Special Economic Zone

84
MAJOR BENEFITS

• Various types of tax and duty concessions within
  SEZ
• Efficient operating norms for the
  Airport-Aircraft turn-around time, Passenger
  walk-through time, cargo clearance time etc.
• All infrastructure facilities available - power
  , water, telecommunications, computer
  connectivity etc.
• Economic benefits to the Vidarbha Region and
  Nagpur City and the overall Country through the
  International and Domestic Hub.
• Development of Hinterland through multi-modal
  connectivity to the other parts of the Country.

85
Economic Benefits

• Increase in Exports
• Wealth Creation
• Employment creation
• Increase in revenues from tourists
• Value addition
• Fiscal benefits to the Central and State
  Government

86
Economic Fiscal Benefits
87
FINANCIAL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

• The total project cost is Rs.25810 million over
  30 years
• The total investment required in various
  facilities in the MIHAN Project area by other
  agencies is approximately Rs.26000 million till
  2035
• The project is viable with an IRR of 15.8
• The Net Economic Value added to the region till
  2035 will be Rs.522,254 million, apart from the
  creation of thousands of jobs
• Employment generated in airport, allied
  activities and tourism

88
Aspiration Level Criterion

• This method does not yield an optimal decision in
  the sense of maximizing profit or minimizing cost
• It is a means of determining acceptable courses
  of action
• Most Likely Future Criterion
• Converting the probabilistic situation into
  deterministic situation by replacing the random
  variable with the single value that has the
  highest probability of occurrence

89
Decisions under uncertainty

• They assume that there is no probability
  distributions available to the random variable.
• The methods under this are
• The Laplace Criterion
• The Minimax criterion
• The Savage criterion
• The Hurwicz criterion

90
Laplace Criterion

• This Criterion is based on what is known as the
  principle of insufficiency
• ai is the selection yielding the largest expected
  gain
• Selection of the action ai corresponding
• where 1/n is the probability that

91
Example 2

• A recreational facility must decide on the level
  of supply it must stock to meet the needs of its
  customers during one of the holiday. The exact
  number of customers is not known, but it is
  expected to be of four categories200,250,300 or
  350 customers. Four levels of supplies are thus
  suggested with level i being ideal (from the view
  point of the costs) if the number of customer
  falls in category i. Deviation from these levels
  results in additional costs either because extra
  supplies are stocked needlessly or because demand
  cannot be satisfied. The table below provides the
  costs in thousands of dollars
• a1, a2, a3 and a4 are the supplies level

Customer Category Customer Category Customer Category Customer Category Customer Category
  q1 q2 q3 q4
a1 5 10 18 25
a2 8 7 8 23
a3 21 18 12 21
a4 30 22 19 15
92

• Solution by Laplace Criterion
• Ea1 (1/4)(5101825) 14.5
• Ea2 (1/4)(87823) 11.5
• Ea3 (1/4)(21181221) 18.0
• Ea4 (1/4)(30221915) 21.5
• Thus the best level of inventory according to
  Laplace criterion is specified by a2.

93
Minimax (Maxmini) Criterion

• This is the most conservative criterion since it
  is based on making the best out of the worst
  possible conditions
• If the outcome v(ai,?j) represents loss for the
  decision maker, then, for, ai the worst loss
  regardless of what ?j may be is max ?j v(ai,?j)
• The minimax criterion then selects the action ai
  associated with min ai max ?j v(ai,?j)
• Similarly if v(ai,?j) represents gain, the
  criterion selects the action ai associated with
  max ai min ?j v(ai,?j)
• This is called the maxmini criterion

94

• Applying this criterion to the Example 2
• Thus the best level of inventory according to
  this criterion is specified by a3

Customer Category Customer Category Customer Category Customer Category Customer Category Max
Supply  q1 q2 q3 q4 Max
a1 5 10 18 25 25
a2 8 7 8 23 23
a3 21 18 12 21 21
a4 30 22 19 15 30
Minimax value
95
Effects of Toll rates in traffic projections

• Traffic and revenue (TR) forecasts - typically
  point estimates
• Bond investors, rating agencies, etc. prefer
  rigorous sensitivity/risk assessments in toll
  road TR forecasts
• Risk analysis helps to
• Quantify uncertainties in inputs
• Determine impacts of inputs on output
• Analyze output sensitivities
• Quantify uncertainties of the output
• Multi-agency toll project financing negotiations
• Evolving risk analysis processes in TR
  estimation

96
Typical TR Process

Planned
Existing
Forecasted
Existing
(MTP, CIP, etc.)
Demand
Supply
Toll Diversion
Model
Toll Traffic/Transactions
Transponder Shares, Revenue Recovery, Truck
Shares, Revenue Days, Toll Rates

Sensitivity Analysis
Toll Revenue
96
97
TR Risk Analysis Process

97
98

Uncertainties in Input Variables
Transaction Variables
Population (Census vs. Forecast)
Employment (Census vs. Forecast)
VOT (SP Survey, CPI)
Toll Rates, Vehicle Operating Costs (AAA, CPI)
General Uncertainty/Safety Factor
Revenue Variables
Truck Shares (based on observed trends on similar toll facilities)
Revenue Days (based on observed trends on similar toll facilities)
Transponder Shares (based on observed trends on similar toll facilities)



98
99

Impacts of Population on Toll Traffic
99
100

Impacts of Employment on Toll Traffic
100
101

Impacts of Value of Time on Toll Traffic
101
102

Impacts of Vehicle Operating Cost on Toll Traffic
102
103

TR Uncertainties
Year Traffic Distributions Traffic Distributions Traffic Distributions
Year Lower Bound (P5) Mean Upper Bound (P95)
2011 96 100 104
2030 80 100 122
Year Revenue Distributions Revenue Distributions Revenue Distributions
Year Lower Bound (P5) Mean Upper Bound (P95)
2011 83 100 111
2030 69 100 141
103
104
Contd.

• Quantification of TR uncertainties very
  important given the inherent uncertainties/imperfe
  ctions in inputs and models
• Possible ways to quantify TR uncertainties
• Discrete sensitivity analysis
• Risk analysis to create probability ranges for
  the outputs
• Combined sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and
  extreme event impacts (recommended)

105
B.O.T projects based on government support and
guarantees

106
(No Transcript)
107
(No Transcript)
108
(No Transcript)
109
(No Transcript)
110
(No Transcript)
111
(No Transcript)
112
(No Transcript)
113
SUMMARY

• Traditional four stage Transportation Planning
  methodology is discussed.
• Fundamentals behind the various techniques
  adopted in decision making for mega
  transportation infrastructure projects are
  discussed.
• An insight is provided into the procedure
  involved from conception to implementation stage
  supported by case studies of various
  transportation projects.

114
CONCLUSIONS

• Projects should be well-conceived and
  economically efficient, using latest tools for
  decision analysis.
• Decision analysis should be through PMC , TAC as
  well as conflict resolution, for different stages
  in the projects.
• It is necessary to have appropriate institutional
  set up for effective conception, planning,
  prioritization, decision analysis, PMC/contractor
  selection and effective implementation through
  Q/A checks.

115
Thank You