Steve Rayner James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization

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Steve RaynerJames Martin Institute for Science
and Civilization

• WICKED PROBLEMSCLUMSY SOLUTIONS

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WICKED PROBLEMS

• Identified by Horst Rittel in late 1960s as
  characterizing social problems
• Contrasted relatively easy challenges of public
  health engineering in late 19th early 20th
  centuries with late 20th century urban planning
• Also compared puzzle-solving in mathematics
  natural science with complexities of social
  policy (hard/soft science)
• Noted challenges of increasing heterogeneity
  value conflicts in modern society (fragmentation
  of identities)

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CHARACTERISTICS OF WICKED PROBLEMS

• Symptoms of deeper problems
• Little room for trial error learning
• Lack a clear set of alternative solutions
• Characterized by contradictory certitudes
• Have redistributive implications for entrenched
  interests
• Persistent insoluble
• Coping not solving
• Feasibility not optimality

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY
WICKED

• Basic clean air water legislation was based on
  public experience
• London pea-soupers in 1952 killed 12,000 people
• Cuyahoga river fires 1936-1969 were highly
  visible
• Contemporary issues involve complex science not
  directly apprehended by public politicians
  (climate, ozone, POPs)
• Not only look like social issues but incorporate
  them
• Environmental justice
• Sustainable development

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WICKED ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS INCLUDE

• Climate change
• Water resources management
• Energy production use
• Genetically modified agriculture
• Urban planning
• Waste disposal
• Marine ecosystem protection
• Biodiversity loss

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CLIMATE CHANGE AS A WICKED PROBLEM

• UN FCCC objective is to stabilize atmospheric
  greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system
• No agreement on meaning of dangerous or
  interference
• Based on hierarchical model of ozone regime
  (simple problem)
• Seeks agreement among 195 signatories
• Potentially explosive growth in emissions from
  China India
• Kyoto protocol divisive - embraced by Europe but
  rejected by USA Australia

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CLIMATE CHANGE THE VIEW FROM EUROPE

• 70-90 of UK population sees climate as a
  significant problem
• 70-90 sees the government as primarily
  responsible for action
• 3 decades of the European project (climate as a
  handy external threat to all)
• Margaret Thatcher as Green Goddess
• Prevalence of precautionary principle (avoid
  disaster)
• Faith in behavioural change

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CLIMATE CHANGE THE US VIEW

• 60 sees climate as a significant problem
• Only 40 looks to the Federal government to lead
  response
• 3 decades of decentralization
• George Bush Sr the Whitehouse effect
  highlighted (misrepresented) disagreement
• Prevalence of proportional principle (benefits
  and costs)
• Faith in technological change

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TAMING WICKED PROBLEMS

• 3 strategies along spectrum from reductionist to
  holistic (Roberts)
• Hierarchical simplify issues apply routines
• Competitive use expertise to control resources
• Egalitarian open the problem to more
  stakeholders
• Each reflects a coherent organizational world
  view which shapes problem definition

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CONTESTED CHARACTERIZATION (RAVETZ)
High
Decision Stakes
Uncertainty/ignorance
Low
High
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SEARCH FOR TRANSCENDENT AUTHORITY

• Sees conflicting values as a problem for policy
• Demands science-based or evidence-based
  policy
• Attachment to idea that science determines policy
  (nature as a trump card)
• More research is always needed
• Problems expand to incorporate more technical
  disciplines
• (IPCC)
• But a surfeit of science is indeterminate (US
  NAPAP)
• Alternative is to make a virtue of necessity

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A DYNAMIC SOLUTION SPACE
Hierarchical
Solution space
Egalitarian
Competitive
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PROFLIGACY AN EGALITARIAN STORY

• Consumption is the underlying problem
• Environmental degradation is symptomatic of wider
  malaise
• Loss of harmony with nature each other in
  pursuit of profit growth
• Nature is fragile the economy is forgiving
• Heroes are outspoken climate scientists
  activists
• Villains are greedy corporations
• Problem is urgent time is compressed
• Solution is behavioural, requiring precaution
  frugality

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THE CRIES OF THE CORALS (LEFALE)

• Who cares about coral reefs? I often heard in
  the corridors of the UN buildings. I care. I
  listen to the cries of millions of polyps that
  make up the corals. Why? Because there is more at
  stake for us all than just the death of polyps
  and corals.
• What is causing corals to die lies at the core
  of the way we humans live.Dead corals are the
  victims of injusticesof greed, of
  selfishness.It is an act of genocide.
• The coral polyps own world mirrors the human
  experience the cries for freedom from foreign
  debt, poverty, starvation, the cries to change
  lifestyles, not the climate, the cries to stop
  burning fossil fuels! To ignore the death of
  coral reefs is, I believe, to ignore the cries of
  many of the worlds people.

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PLANNING A HIERARCHICAL STORY

• Lack of planning weak global governance is the
  underlying problem
• Both the global commons the global economy
  require monitoring and managing within limits
• Heroes are those scientists, civil servants, NGO
  representatives, enlightened politicians
  building management structures for the global
  commons
• Villains are complacent governments who wont
  sign up (US Australia)
• Long-term view Rome wasnt built in a day
• Solution is diplomatic regulatory

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A NEW INSTITUTIONAL ORDER (UN HDR)

• The challenge is to find the rules and
  institutions for stronger governance to preserve
  the advantages of global competition, but also to
  provide enough space for human, community and
  environmental resources.
• Some of the key elements of an improved
  international architecture
• - A stronger and more coherent UN systemA global
  central bankA world investment trustA world
  environment agency.
• A Life Observatory should be established to
  systematically monitor major ecosystems.
  Long-term planning should factor-in projected
  changes in climate and changes to specific
  ecosystems.
• Intergovernmental processes tend to be difficult
  to organize and slow to execute, but they are the
  only realistic way to address cross-border
  pollution and ecosystem degradation.

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PROBLEM WHAT PROBLEM? A COMPETITIVE STORY

• Problem is insufficient scepticism science is
  uncertain technological progress rapid
• The economy is fragile nature is forgiving
• Heroes are technological innovators venture
  capitalists
• Villains are panic-prone environmentalists
  planners trying to pick winners
• Short term focus other issues are more pressing
  (Lomborg)
• Solution, if there is a climate problem, will be
  to allow market forces to work

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HANDS OFF THE MARKET (NEF)

• On the whole societys problems and challenges
  are best dealt with by people and companies
  interacting with each other freely and without
  interference from the state. We do not know
  whether the world is definitively warming. If
  the world is warming, we do not know what is
  causing the change man or nature. We do not
  know whether a warmer world would be a good or a
  bad thing.Until the science of climate change is
  better understood, no government action should be
  undertaken beyond elimination of subsidies and
  other distortions of the market.

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ALL THREE STORIES

• Are elegant
• Are internally consistent and logically argued
• Are irreducible to one another
• Give plausible but conflicting accounts
• Define what sort of evidence is legitimate and
  credible
• Are immune to falsification by appeals to
  scientific facts
• Combine to create a wicked problem

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THE GOOD NEWS

• Individually each story is only a partial vision,
  but collectively each fills in a perspective on
  the problem that the others cannot entertain
  none is entirely right, all are partially wrong
• Policies based on only one or two of these
  visions will fail to grapple with its wickedness
• Together, they offer a dynamic plural,
  argumentative system of policy definition
• Omitting any one voice also leads to loss of
  legitimacy and public trust

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THE BAD NEWS

• Climate regime is overwhelmingly based in the
  hierarchical story
• Focuses overwhelmingly on emissions reductions
  over impacts
• Assumes policies will be expensive - therefore
  requiring monitoring compliance
• Regime represents 14 years of negotiation
• Has minimal goals that will not make a difference
• Is rejected by major players (USA Australia)
• Kyoto has been represented as the only game in
  town What would be a viable alternative?

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CLUMSY SOLUTIONS (SHAPIRO)

• Problem of selecting judges (1988)
• Society individuals are committed to
  conflicting values (rule-of law, democracy,
  effectiveness)
• Importance of essential contestation
• Need to avoid alienation of significant
  constituencies
• Importance of maintaining a set of values over
  time

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A CLUMSY CLIMATE STRATEGY

• Increase initial focus on adaptation emissions
  reduction is somebody elses problem (Europe) or
  just too costly (US)
• Deal with issues at lowest possible level of
  decision making nations, provinces, cities
• Focus international emissions reduction efforts
  on smallest number of players fewer than 10
  really matter
• Reverse global collapse of energy RD funding 9
  countries fund 95 of RD
• Focus on processes rather than targets
  timetables
• Consider benefits of international competition as
  well as cooperation and coercion (tipping points)

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KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF CLUMSY SOLUTIONS

• Observe law of minimum requisite variety (3
  voices)
• Clumsiness is not reducible to public
  participation
• All voices heard responded to
• Are emergent often informal
• US nuclear power settlement

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CHALLENGES FOR CLUMSY APPROACHES

• Media voters expect policy makers to fix
  problems
• Policy makers demand scientific bottom lines for
  decision making, even though they dont use them
• Scientists are committed to improving knowledge,
  so hold out unrealistic expectations to
  policymakers
• The hammer problem
• Success of rational choice for solving simple and
  complex problems exacerbates expectations
• Claims that there are no alternatives to
  rational choice tools

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THE CLUMSY IMPERATIVE

• Democracy is not merely a design problem It is a
  challenge to the imagination (VISVANATHAN)
• Embracing clumsiness moves us from techniques for
  selecting among well-defined alternatives towards
  new skills for creating imaginative solutions

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Marco Verweij Michael Thompson (eds)

• Palgrave, London, September 2006