The Hurricane Intensity Forecasting improvement and Impacts projection HiFi Scientific and Operation

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The Hurricane Intensity Forecasting
improvement and Impacts projection (HiFi)
Scientific and Operational Development Program
http//www.nova.edu/ocean/hifi
Greg Holland Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology
Division Earth Sun Systems Laboratory, NCAR
NCAR is sponsored by the National Science
Foundation
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Hurricanes

• Are arguably the greatest existing threat to
  coastal communities
• People and Society, Commerce, Infrastructure,
  Environmental.
• Cause over 10 times the damage and disruption of
  earthquakes
• Yet receive less than 10 of the impacts research
  funding???
• Have impacts over many time scales
• 5-day forecast and warning
• Seasonal planning and preparation
• Decadal trends for building-infrastructure design
  and construction.

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The Need

• Rapid Intensification and Decay Cycles are the
  greatest problem (Max Mayfield)
• Intensity and structure forecasts have not
  improved in pace with track

• Three Major Investigations have Concluded that
  Urgent and Focused Action is Needed
• NOAA Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group
• AGU Meeting of Experts
• National Science Board National Hurricane
  Research Initiative.

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The Hurricane Intensity Forecasting and Impacts
Initiative (HiFi)

• A partnership between research, forecast and
  impacted communities (including industry) that
  has evolved over the past year to improve our
  capacity to
• Plan for
• Respond to and,
• Recover from
• the impacts of hurricanes.

HiFi strongly supports the proposed NOAA/RSMAS
JCHR and plans to work with them on HiFi
implementation
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HiFi Background

• Commenced with a group of NOAA and university
  scientists in late 2005
• Planning and development now coordinated by Greg
  Holland (NCAR), Roger Lukas (Hawaii) and the HiFi
  Science Steering Committee
• Funding of 250m over 10 years is being sought to
  support the program
• Supported by GCOOS and the offshore oil industry
• Has wide involvement from the scientific, impacts
  and industry community.

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Strategic Plan development

• Very much driven by the science and operational
  communities.
• August 2006 Initial Prospectus by Science
  Steering Committee
• October 2006 (Houston Workshop) 0-5 day
  Forecasting Priorities
• November 2006 (NCAR Workshop) Seasonal to
  Multi-Decade Prediction Priorities
• February 2007 (LANL/NCAR Workshop, Sante Fe)
  Impacts Projections.

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HiFi Priority Areas

• Major Goal
• To make substantial and continuing improvements
  to the ocean and atmospheric models (including
  relevant observations and data assimilation) used
  to simulate hurricanes on both forecast and
  longer time scale
• Priority Areas
• 0 to 5 Day Hurricane Intensity and Structure
  Forecast Improvements
• Long Range Projections from Weeks to Decades
• Impacts Projections

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HiFi Priority Area 1

• Improved hurricane intensity and structure
  forecasts out to 5 days with an emphasis on rapid
  intensification and decay cycles.
• Details developed at a community meeting in
  Houston, Oct 11-13 2006, which decided to focus
  on
• cloud microphysics and internal dynamics
• the air-sea interface
• feedbacks from ocean dynamics
• predictability of intensity and structure.

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Cloud and Internal Dynamics

• Working Hypothesis For a given environmental
  condition, hurricane intensification to Category
  2-3 is fundamentally determined by the inner-core
  convective processes, but for Category 3-5 the
  inner-core dynamical processes become the
  dominant processes determining the intensity
  change.
• Requirements
• Observe and simulate the structure, distribution
  and evolution of microphysical elements and
  vorticity in the hurricane core and rainbands
• Investigate the impact of aerosols, including
  Saharan dust and anthropogenic influences, dry
  air ingestion and vertical shear on clouds and
  vorticity
• Determine the influence of microphysical and
  vorticity uncertainties on hurricane
  predictability
• Determine parameterization requirements and
  levels of sophistication, and develop new
  parameterization approaches, including
  incorporation of coherent boundary-layer
  structures such as longitudinal rolls.

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W, domain 5, dx185m, z4.7km
6-h animation Day 9 0000 0600 1
minute/frame Domain size 111x111 km
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The Air-Sea Interface

• Working Hypothesis Surface wave breaking and
  associated microphysical processes in the
  high-wind hurricane core control the efficiency
  of heat extraction from, and energy dissipation
  in, the ocean, and thus intensity changes.
• Key requirements
• Develop a hierarchy of models for quantifying the
  relationship of storm intensity with wave
  breaking, spray and bubble production and
  distribution, boundary layer turbulence, and the
  vertical fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum
• Make observations in hurricanes of mean and
  turbulent variables, spray/bubbles across the
  ocean and atmospheric boundary layers to the
  surface, of 2-dimensional wave spectra, and of
  wave breaking, to enable development and testing
  of models
• Develop new approaches to incorporating the
  vertical fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum
  into operational prediction systems, including
  targeted observations as required.

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Sea State in Hurricane Winds
SFMR measures microwave emission of foam on the
sea surface
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Altered stratification affects turbulence
production and wave field
air with some spray droplets
?a
spray and bubbles suspensionN2 gtgt 0
seawater with some bubbles
?o
(After Emanuel, 2003)
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The Forecast ProcessDefining the best Data Mix

• Effective utilization of existing resources
• Radar, satellite, ocean, aircraft.
• Identifying areas of need
• NHC requirement for near-surface data.
• Developing new and innovative approaches
• Oceanic, UAVs, COSMIC.
• Achieved by combined system development, research
  (including Data Assimilation), OSSEs, and focused
  field programs aimed at both testing observing
  techniques and improving our overall
  understanding.

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Innovative and Optimal Observing Strategies
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HiFi Priority Area 2

• Improved assessment of hurricane activities over
  seasonal to decadal time scales in support of
  planning, engineering design, and infrastructural
  development.
• Details developed at a meeting coordinated by
  NCAR in Boulder November 9-11 2006
• Potential impacts of greenhouse warming and
  natural cycles on tropical cyclones
• The role of tropical cyclones in the general
  climate (up and down scale)
• Optimal paths to improving our understanding and
  predictive capacity using regional, 2-way coupled
  climate

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Improving Longer-Term Projections
Holland and Webster 2007

• Critically important for planning and for on- and
  off-shore design.

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HiFi Priority Area 3

• Improved definition of hurricane impacts on
  vulnerable communities and industries.
• Details decided at a meeting on hurricane impacts
  sponsored by LANL and NCAR in Sante Fe, 27-29
  February 2007
• Tailoring the presentation of impact forecasts to
  specific stakeholder groups
• developing virtual reality visualization of
  weather and infrastructure impacts
• modeling the effects of disseminating information
  to the stakeholders and the public, particularly
  where this affects evacuation and compliance with
  emergency orders
• broadening the scope and treatment of weather
  impacts to include multinational analyses and the
  inclusion of long term cultural and social
  costsetc

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Electric Power RestorationCat 3 Hurricane for NYC
Source Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Summary of HiFi Strategies to Accomplish the
Research Priorities

• Understanding Internal and air-sea interactions.
• Modeling High resolution, with emphasis on
  physical processes
• Observations Satellite, Aircraft, Remote
  sensing..what is the best mix?
• Data Assimilation 4DVar, EnKF
• Societal Impacts.what is the optimal way of
  merging scientific capacity and societal needs?
• Building on and Extending Existing and Proposed
  Programs
• CBLST, RAINEX
• WRF
• NOAA/NASA/NAVY/NCAR field facilities
• International
• Proposed Joint Center for Hurricane Research

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HiFi Funding Strategy

• Requirement 250 million over ten years.
• Goals
• Work under the current Martinez/Hastings
  legislation on the National Hurricane research
  Initiative (letter from 70 scientists)
• enable a rapid implementation of key aspects of
  the NSB and NOAA recommendations
• Be complementary to, and will collaborate with,
  any other hurricane programs that develop (e.g.
  Joint Center for Hurricane Research in Miami).
• Distribution 100m for research and
  development, 100m for major field effort
  (including OSSEs), and 50m for operational
  deployment.

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The Hurricane Intensity Forecasting and Impacts
Initiative (HiFi)

• A major partnership between research, forecast
  and impacted communities (including industry) to
  improve our capacity to
• Plan for
• Respond to and,
• Recover from
• the impacts of hurricanes
• Through a structured research and system
  development partnership between government,
  academic, industry and community groups.

THANK YOU http//www.nova.edu/ocean/hifi