School Enrollment Projection Report and GeoCoding

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School Enrollment Projection Report and Geo-Coding

• Presented on October 22, 2008

Prepared by Stan Slachetka, AICP, P.P. TM
Associates
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Projection Methodology

• Cohort Survival Method
• Uses historic enrollment data and birth records
  to estimate future enrollments
• Growth Model
• Takes into consideration a communitys growth
  rate to estimate the amount of additional school
  age children to be generated from new residential
  development.
• Uses certificates of occupancy (COs), approved
  and pending development applications, and
  demographic multipliers to predict enrollments.

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Glossary

• Cohort
• The number of students in a specific class as it
  progresses up through each grade level
• Cohort survival ratio
• The ratio between the class size at one grade
  level to the class size at the next highest grade
  level
• In-migration
• The number of new students added to a cohort
  between each grade

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Glossary (2/2)

• Demographic multiplier
• The estimated number of school children to be
  generated from a residential unit.
• Based on national and regional studies of the
  actual number of school children generated by
  residential development
• Center for Urban Policy ResearchRutgers
  University (June 2006)
• Impacted by
• Type of Residential Unit
• Number of Bedrooms
• Price of Unit

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Historic Enrollment
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Historic and Projected Births
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Historic Enrollment
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Historic Enrollment
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Historic Development Activity
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Residential Development
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Residential Development
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Development Multipliers
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Enrollment Projection
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Enrollment Projection
Based on Full Day Kindergarten
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Enrollment Projection-District
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Enrollment Projection-District
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Enrollment Projection-Schools
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Existing Districts
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Scenario 2
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Enrollment Projection-Schools Scenario 2
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Scenario 3
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Enrollment Projection-Schools Scenario 3
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Paired K-3 and 4-6
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Enrollment Projection-Schools Paired PK-3 and 4-6
K to 3
4-6
Pre-K at Middle Road
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Half to Full Day Kindergarten
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Caveats and Cautions

• Economic Trends Housing Market
• Affordable Housing Issues
• New COAH numbers and regulations adopted in
  June/September 2008
• Revisions in Hazlet Township Affordable Housing
  Plan

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Thank You