Title: NESDEC K-12 Enrollment Projections 2014-15 through 2018-19 November 12, 2013
1NESDEC K-12 Enrollment Projections2014-15
through 2018-19November 12, 2013
2NESDEC Enrollment Assumptions
- The rate of housing growth.
- The number of homes sold.
- From 2015-2020, home sales will gradually
increase. - The Meadowood Development will be completed by
the end of the decade. - The final Powder Forest units will be
constructed. - Residential permitting has increased.
- Sales, thus far, appear to be stronger.
3Table I October 1 Enrollment History 2009-10
through 2013-14
- K-12 5-year decline of 508 students.
- K-6 5-year decline of 362 students.
- 7-8 5-year decline of 100 students.
- 9-12 5-year decline of 46 students.
- 5-year staffing reduction of 40.7 FTE.
4Comments Grade Configurations
Comments K-12 K-12 Enrollment projected to decrease by 77 students for 2014-15 Projected to decline by 415 students by 2018-19 or 9.6 Comments Grades 7-8 7-8 Enrollment projected to remain stable for 2014-15 Projected to decline by 139 students by 2018-19 or 19.1
Comments K-6 K-6 Enrollment projected to decrease by 26 students for 2014-15 Projected to decline 95 students by 2018-19 or 4.5 Comments Grades 9-12 9-12 Enrollment projected to decline by 51 students for 2014-15 Projected to decline by 181 students by 2018-19 or 11.8
5Central School Projections
- Central School is projected to decrease by 5
students or 1.4 in 2014. Five-year projections
indicate a decrease of 16 students or 4.3.
6Latimer Lane Projections
- Latimer Lane School is projected to decrease by 8
students or 1.9 in 2014. Five-year projections
indicate a decrease of 24 students or 5.7.
7Squadron Line Projections
- Squadron Line School is projected to increase by
3 students or less than 1 in 2014. Five-year
projections indicate a decrease of 53 students or
8.7.
8Tariffville Projections
- Tariffville School is projected to increase by 10
students or 3.6 in 2014. Five-year projections
indicate an increase of 16 students or 5.8. -
9Tootin Projections
- Tootin Hills School is projected to decrease by
26 students or 6.5 in 2014. Five-year
projections indicate a decrease of 17 students or
4.3. -
10Henry James Memorial Projections
- Henry James Memorial School is projected to
maintain the same enrollment for 2014. Five-year
projections indicate a decrease of 139 students
or 19.1. -
11Simsbury High Projections
- Simsbury High School is projected to decrease by
51 students or 3.3 in 2014. Five-year
projections indicate a decrease of 181 students
or 11.8. -
12Births/Enrollment ComparisonKindergarten
Enrollment 2009-10 through 2018-19 compared to
Birth Year 2004 - 2013
- Over past 7 years, 125 kindergarteners for every
100 births have registered. - In the fall of 2013, 138 kindergarteners for
every 100 births registered representing the 3rd
highest ratio in over a decade.
13Conclusions
- 2013 NESDEC projections suggest that K-12 student
enrollment will decrease an average of 83
students per year for the next 5 years. - October 1, 2013 enrollment of 4330 is expected to
decrease to 3915 students in 2018-19. - As the economy and real estate situations
improve, we can anticipate stronger in-migration
that may affect current patterns indicating
decline in enrollment over 10 years. - A 13.6 K-1 in-migration ratio appears to be
accurate for the foreseeable future. - Facilities Enrollment Study Task Force will
revisit the continuation of modular removal plan
and any different/additional action necessary in
response to the projected decrease in enrollment.
14NESDEC K-12 Enrollment Projections2014-15
through 2018-19November 12, 2013