Wireless Networks and Services 10 Years Down the Road

1
Wireless Networks and Services 10 Years Down the
Road

• Technology/Business Panel Discussion
• N. K. Shankaranarayanan
• ATT Labs-Research
• shankar_at_research.att.com
• April 7, 2009
• IEEE WCNC 2009
• Budapest, Hungary

2
Acknowledgment

• Discussions with
• Byoung-Jo J Kim
• Robert Miller

3
Wireless networks and services in 2014 to 2019

• Currently planned cycle of standardization (LTE,
  802.16m/WiMAX, 802.11) would be in mature
  deployment phase
• Wireless networks and services would have
  migrated to IP-based networks
• Mobile user experience
• Like todays Ethernet 10 to 100 Mb/s
• Latency improvements may lag bit rate
  improvements
• Enables thin clients, games

4
Mobile services

• Mobile person-to-person communication services
• Likely to continue as primary driver for consumer
  mobile communicatons services
• Dominant mode of person-to-person communications
  will be optimized for mobile
• Voice/video telephony messages, e-mail, short
  video clips
• Battery and device constraints
• Shorter messages easier to generate and receive
• Variety of other applications will thrive once
  enabled by broadband connectivity ( unlimited
  pricing)
• M-commerce, Sensing monitoring, Healthcare
• QoS provisions (esp. bandwidth-rich applications)
  depend on willingness to pay
• Uniquely mobile applications services will be
  interesting
• Location-aware, context-aware
• Mobile games
• Participatory experiences

5
Wireless Networks Services

• Broadband mobile (e.g. UMTS/HSPA) has been
  deployed in wide manner in recent years ..
• Large set of IP-based applications got enabled
  once user got few hundred kb/s ( unlimited data
  pricing plans)
• As we progress from few Mb/s -gt 10 Mb/s -gt 100
  Mb/s Ethernet-like connectivity ..
• Expect trends that played out in home office
  computers
• Explosion of functionality will be driven by
  innovation in data (IP-based) applications ..
• Next 5 to 10 years will witness strong growth in
  user demands of data applications
• Need to maintain broadband experience as we ..
• .. accommodate more number of users
• .. offer higher peak bit rates.

6
Inflexion point 2008

• Smartphones (e.g. iPhone) ushered in new era of
  mobile applications
• Inflexion point in 2008 popularity of broadband
  mobile data applications
• Following factors trends will play key role in
  next 5 to 10 years
• Multipurpose mobile computingcommunication
  device
• User interface innovation crossed critical
  threshold of usability
• WiFi / cellular transparent to applications
• Unlimited data plans
• Openly available SDK with large target audience
• Application development by small developers
• Location services, push/notification, security
  manged by device/OS

7
Mobile Devices

• Form factor of hand-held devices seem to already
  show a lot of convergence
• Small easy-to-carry versus display large enough
  to be usable
• On-screen or folding/sliding keyboard/keypad
• Battery life expected to continue as key
  constraint
• Higher bandwidth connections
• Video screen usage
• Mobile devices will serve as target platform for
  innovation and convergence of personal
  computing/communication applications
• Wild cards / Innovations
• Foldable display
• Battery technology capacity quick charging

8
Mobile computing trends

• Location information integrated and managed
  actively by device and OS privacy issues
• Use of network-based computing technology (e.g.
  cloud computing) to manage constraints of device
  (e.g. thin clients, suspended states)
• Security paradigms to manage authentication
  (m-commerce etc) and separation of
  personal/business space
• Variety of specialized applications v. general
  purpose programs
• Easier input
• Increased use of voice-input
• Natural language processing

9
Wireless network deployment

• Strong trends pointing to smaller cell sizes
• More users (with same spectrum) -gt smaller cell
  sizes
• Higher bit rates (with same battery) -gt smaller
  cell sizes
• Higher bit rates -gt data applications more
  usable, more popular -gt more users
• Local wireless will need to be integral part of
  mobile experience
• Low-power, low-cost access points are feasible in
  buildings (thanks to wired broadband)
• Managing heterogeneous networks and local/wide
  area will be crucial
• Either Active Management or Smart co-existence
• Transparent to users and applications
• Wild cards
• Spectrum sharing / re-use

10
Local wireless

• Critically needed for solving battery life and
  capacity constraints
• Likely that both Unlicensed (WiFi) and/or
  Licensed (femtocell) spectrum approaches will
  thrive in 5 to 10 years
• Leverages availability of lower-cost (free?)
  wired broadband
• Same advanced radio techniques will get applied
  to both
• Deployment model
• WiFi unlicensed spectrum, general purpose use
• Femtocells optimized for mobile devices,
  controlled by mobile operators
• Battery life
• WiFi Not part of original design, being added
  now
• Femtocells Sleep mode behavior optimized for
  cellular
• Availability to wide-area (guest) user
• Likely to be addressed better by femtocells
• WiFi factoid Proliferation of APs, but decrease
  in free hotspots
• Interference and co-existence
• Decentralized (auto-configuration) approaches