Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for the Asia and Pacific Region Jakarta, Indonesia, 20 March, 2006

1
Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training
Workshop for the Asia and Pacific RegionJakarta,
Indonesia, 20 March, 2006
Integration of VA Analysis by Arthur W. Rolle
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Outline

• General points
• Integration of results
• Cross sector and multi-sector integration
• Setting priorities
• Vulnerability
• Adaptation
• Examples of Adaptation Integration
• Benefit-cost Analysis
• Conclusions

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National Communications

• Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should
  develop and publish their national
  communications.
• Under the new guidelines (decision 17/CP.8),
  Parties should communicate to the COP a general
  description of programs containing measures to
  facilitate adequate adaptation, etc.

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Reporting Requirements

• The following categories of impacts/vulnerability
  are expected to be reported agriculture,
  tourism, health, forests, water resources,
  infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions,
  ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries
  and the economy.

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Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation

• Vulnerability is a function of the character,
  magnitude and rate of climate change and
  variation, to which a system is exposed, its
  sensitivity and its adaptive capacity Summary
  for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)
• Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to
  adjust to climate change (including climate
  variability and extremes) to moderate potential
  damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to
  cope with the consequences Summary for Policy
  Makers (IPCC WG II

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After vulnerability and adaptation analyses-
Whats next?

• The interest should now be on incorporating
  initiatives, measures, strategies to reduce
  vulnerability to climate change into other,
  existing policies, programs, resource management
  structures, disaster preparedness program,
  livelihood enhancement activities, and other
  sustainable development initiatives.

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WHY?

• It is unrealistic to expect special policy
  initiatives to deal with climate change
  adaptation by itself, especially when so many of
  the suggested adaptations (drought planning,
  coastal infrastructure planning, flood
  preparedness, early warning, livelihood
  enhancement, etc) were being addressed in other
  policies or programs.

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Why is Integration Important?

• Impacts do not happen in isolation
• Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively
  affect another
• Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly
• Others just indirectly
• Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the
  affect of climate change in another sector
• In addition, integration is necessary for ranking
  vulnerabilities and adaptations

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Main Types of Integration of Results

• Cross-sector integration
• Link related sectors
• Multisector
• Economy or system wide
• Integrated assessment models
• Economic models

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Some Integrated Assessment Models

• IMAGE
• ICLIPS
• CLIMPACTS
• MIASMA

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Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct
Climate Effect

• In a recent study, crop yields in California were
  generally estimated to increase with climate
  change
• In one scenario, a 25 reduction in water supply
  results in a net loss of 1 billion/year to
  California agriculture

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Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology
WATBAL Streamflow PET
SCENARIOS GCM
CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RES Crop
water demand
WEAP Evaluation Planning
CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad.
CROPWAT Regional irrigation
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Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
(1990 absolute 2060-optimistic/pessimistic
percentage change from 1990)
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Multi-sector Integration Modeling
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IMAGE Model
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Regional/National Economic Models

• Quantitative way to examine climate change market
  impacts throughout an economy
• Problem with non-market impacts
• Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium
  models
• Require much data
• Can be expensive
• Can be complex
• Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

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An Example of a Regional Model
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A More Simple Approach

• Add up results sector by sector
• Limited by what is known within sectors
• Problem of how to integrate across multiple end
  points
• Impacts may be measured with different metrics
• Need to account for many sectors
• Does not capture sectoral interactions

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Estimates of Damages for India
Sector Damages ( billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry 0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -1.2
Coastal Resources -1.2
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Can Also Measure Number of People Affected

• Millions at Risk study did this
• Global burden of disease

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Millions at Risk Study
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At a Minimum

• Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
  and possible direction of impacts
• If crops can be examined, not water supply, then
  identify how change in water supply could affect
  agricultural production

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Integration through Setting Priorities

• Vulnerability
• Adaptation

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Prioritization of Vulnerabilities

• It can be quite useful for
• Focusing adaptation measures
• Monitoring
• Adaptation

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Examples of Adaptation Integration

• Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA)
• Integration of adaptation into national policies
  dealing with risk management and into their
  Environment Impact Assessment procedures.
• Mozambique (World Bank)
• Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks
  into Action Plan for Poverty Reduction
• Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA)
• Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into
  sustainable development planning

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Example of Adaptation Integration

• China (ADB, World Bank)
• helping poor farmers adapt to drought conditions-
  government undertook integrated ecosystems
  management-house-level eco-farming integrated
  renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard
  cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand
  and providing forage.

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Process is as Important as Outcome

• This is an expression of values, not a purely
  analytic exercise
• Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
• The following are tools that can be useful in
  setting priorities
• Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
  approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

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NAPA Process
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Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4 Ranking of priority systems/regions/clima
te hazards
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OECD Method
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Ranking Adaptations

• Screening
• Multicriteria assessment
• Benefit-cost analysis

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Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism
Adaptation Measure in Antigua
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Multicriteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
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Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in
Kazakhstan
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Ranking Based on Scenario
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Benefit-Cost Analysis

• Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
  metric to determine whether benefits gt costs
• Monetary values often used
• Difficulty what to do about non-market benefits
  or uncertainties
• Difficulty requires much data and analysis

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BCA Example Sea Walls in Kiribati
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What to Use
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Conclusions

• Integration is important to at least identify
  related impacts
• Analysis is desirable because there can be
  surprises
• Integration can also be useful for examining
  total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities

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Conclusions

• There should be involvement of local
  stakeholders, the private sector, individuals,
  the research community and different levels of
  government.
• Awareness raising and capacity building also
  essential.