Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

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• Overview of Methodological Frameworks for
  Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Consultative Group of Experts on National
Communications from Parties not Included in Annex
I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop
on Vulnerability and Adaptation forAsian and
Pacific Countries 2024 March 2006 Jakarta,
Indonesia Xianfu Lu NCSP, UNDP-UNEP-GEF Xianfu.lu
_at_undp.org
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In the next 40 minutes or so

1. Key terms Impacts, Adaptation/adaptive capacity,
   and Vulnerability
2. Scoping a VA assessment key questions to ask
   and issues to consider
3. Overview of VA frameworks options and their
   application contexts

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Key terms
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Key terms Vulnerability

• Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to
  which a system is susceptible to, or unable to
  cope with, adverse effects of climate change,
  including climate variability and extremes.
• Vulnerability is a function of
• The character, magnitude, and rate of climate
  variation to which a system is exposed
• Its Sensitivity and
• Its adaptive capacity

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Exposure

• Exposure is what is at risk from climate change,
  e.g.,
• Population
• Natural resources
• Infrastructure and property
• It also includes aspects of climate change that
  an affected system will face, e.g.,
• Sea level rise
• Temperature warming
• Precipitation change
• Intensified extreme events

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Sensitivity

• The degree to which a system is affected, either
  adversely or beneficially, by a given
  climate-related stimuli
• Direct (e.g., reduction in crop yield caused by
  increased drought conditions), or indirect (e.g.,
  damage to properties from coastal flooding caused
  by sea level rise)
• Generally, primary production systems (e.g.,
  agriculture, forestry) are much more sensitive to
  climate variations, compared with most secondary
  and tertiary sectors (e.g., manufacturing and
  services)

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Adaptive Capacity

• The ability of a system to adjust to climate
  change to moderate potential damages, to take
  advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the
  consequences
• Determined by the access to
• Wealth, technology, education, institutions,
  information, infrastructure, Social capital
• The mere possession of adaptive capacity does NOT
  guarantee that adaptation actually takes place.

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Vulnerability is determined by these three
factors.
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Impacts of Climate Change

• is typically the effect of climate change
• For biological systems, it can be changes in
  productivity, quality, population, or diversity
• For societal systems, an impact can be a change
  in income, morbidity, mortality, or other
  measures of well-being
• Adverse as well as beneficial

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Adaptation

• adjustment in natural or human systems in
  response to actual or expected climatic stimuli
  or their effects, which moderates harm or
  exploits beneficial opportunities

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Adaptation (continued)

• Two types of adaptation
• Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation
  tends to be what people and systems do as impacts
  of climate change become apparent
• Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures
  taken to reduce potential risks of future climate
  change

VA research and adaptation planning are largely
addressing issues associated with
anticipatory/planned adaptation.
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Different States of Impacts and Vulnerability
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Different States of Impacts and Vulnerability
(continued)
Different definitions might be used to describe
different states of impacts and vulnerability.
Therefore, it is important to explicitly specify
the context of the definition whenever it is used.
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Scoping a VA Assessment
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Some questions to ask

• What is of concern?
• Food production, water supply, health
• Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms,
  e.g., extreme temperature, but in consequences of
  climate for people (e.g., excess mortality caused
  by heat-waves)
• Who may be affected?
• How far into the future is of concern?
• Or is the concern really about current risks
  (which could be made worse by climate change)?

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Some questions to ask (continued)

• For what purpose is the assessment to be
  conducted?
• Engaging stakeholders (public awareness
  campaign)?
• Enhancing scientific understanding (a piece of
  scholarship)?
• Designing adaptation strategy or formulating
  adaptation projects (policy support )?

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Different purposes require different approaches
to VA assessment.
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Some questions to ask (continued)

• Who is the targeted end-users of the results of
  your VA assessment?
• Level of technical details
• Treatment of uncertainties
• Format for presenting results
• What kind of output/information is expected from
  the Assessment?
• Public awareness materials (e.g., climate
  scenarios and their potential impacts etc.)
• Key vulnerabilities (e.g., risk/vulnerability
  maps)
• A national/sectoral adaptation strategy or
• A combination of the above

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Additional Questions to Ask

• What resources are available to conduct the
  study?
• Money
• Staff
• Expertise
• How much time is available?

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These Questions are Key Factors in Determining
How the VA should be conducted.

• So,
• You should NOT begin with the methods or models
  you have in hand, but with these questions.
• Select methods and models that are most
  appropriate for your VA assessment

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Overview of Vulnerability and Adaptation
Frameworks
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Types of Frameworks

• Approaches to VA assessments can be categorized
  by the
• subject matter
• spatial scale and
• chronology
• of the assessments

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Top Down vs. Bottom Up Frameworks
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Top-down Frameworks

• Focusing on long-term (e.g., 2100 or beyond)
  implications of climate change
• Often scenario driven

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Basic Structure for Top-down Frameworks
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The IPCC 7-Step Describing the Procedures
involved in the Top-down Framework

• Define the problem
• Select the method
• Test the method
• Select scenarios
• Assess biophysical and socioeconomic impacts
• Assess autonomous adjustments
• Evaluate adaptation strategies

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Top-down Frameworks applied in most VA
assessments to date

• U.S. Country Studies Programme (http//www.gcrio.o
  rg/CSP/webpage.html)
• National VA assessments as reported in the
  Initial National Communications (INCs) of NAI
  Parties (http//unfccc.int/national_reports/non-an
  nex_i_natcom/items/2979.php )
• Assessments reported in the Third Assessment
  Report of the IPCCC (TAR) (http//www.grida.no/cli
  mate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm)

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Bottom-up Frameworks

• Addressing near-term concerns
• Driven by issues identified through stakeholder
  consultations
• Analysis to be conducted as deemed necessary
• Application of informal analytical techniques

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Bottom-up Frameworks

• UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)
• NAPA Guidance
• UKCIP Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision-making
  Framework

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UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
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UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued)

• Technical papers on
• Scoping and designing an adaptation project
• Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process
• Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation
• Assessing current climate risks
• Assessing future climate risks
• Assessing current and changing socioeconomic
  conditions
• Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity
• Formulating an adaptation strategy
• Continuing the adaptation process

All these papers are freely available at
http//ncsp.undp.org/resources.asp
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NAPA Guidance

• Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to identify
  immediate urgent needs for adaptation
• Synthesizing existing information and knowledge,
  undertaking a national consultative process, and
  setting priorities for adaptation projects to
  address urgent vulnerabilities
• Followed an 8-step process to formulate
  adaptation programme of action

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NAPA 8-step Process
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UKCIP Risk-Uncertainty-Decision-making(8-step)
Framework
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UKCIP Risk-Uncertainty-Decision-making Framework
(continued)

• Identify problem and objectives
• Establish decision-making criteria
• Assess risk
• Identify options
• Appraise options
• Make decision
• Implement decision
• Monitor, evaluate, and review

• Source UKCIP, 2003 http//www.ukcip.org.uk/resou
  rces/publications/documents/RUD_master.pdf

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Other Derivations of Bottom-up Frameworks

• VARA (Vulnerability and Response Assessment for
  Climate Variability and Change
  (http//public.ornl.gov/vara/ )
• Sustainable livelihoods (http//www.livelihoods.or
  g)

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Selecting a Framework

• No particular framework can be recommended
  without a specific context
• Different frameworks are appropriate for
  different needs and have different requirements.
• What is needed in the long run is a combination
  of top-down and bottom-up approaches, or their
  elements.

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A GEF-funded VA assessment project AIACC

• 24 projects in Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin
  America the Caribbean (including 6 projects in
  the Region China, Fiji Cook Islands,
  Indonesia-Philippines, Mongolia, Sri Lanka,
  Thailand/countries sharing the Mekong River
  Basin)
• Assessing vulnerability and adaptation to climate
  change in multiple sectors
• Applying a wide range of approaches, methods, and
  tools
• A wealth body of resources available at
  http//www.aiaccproject.org

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Finally, a few points worth remembering

• Projects often take longer and cost more than
  originally thought (or proposed)
• You may only get through the first few steps
  before running out of time or/and funds So
• Do what you NEED (not what you want!) early on
  and

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Once again

• You should NOT begin with the methods or models
  you have in hand, but with these questions.
• Select methods and models that are most
  appropriate for your particular VA assessment