U.S. FOREIGN POLICY POLS 425

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week 2 introduction to foreign policy analysis
U.S. FOREIGN POLICY POLS 425 professor timothy
c. lim / cal state los angeles tclim_at_calstatela.ed
u
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introduction to foreign policy analysisthe study
of foreign policy
review of key points from last week

• foreign policy analysis is concerned with a
  variety of questions why-questions, who- and
  what questions, and how-possible questions
• foreign policy analysis is interdisciplinary,
  drawing from a variety of theoretical approaches
• there is a special relationship between foreign
  policy analysis and ir

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• review fields relevant to foreign policy
• international relations
• social psychology
• rational choice
• comparative politics
• public policy
• critical theory
• others

special relationship between IR and foreign policy
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• review fields relevant to foreign policy
• authors also believe that the newradical
  accounts of IR are important even more
• their own approach is based on critical
  political analysis

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy
so what is critical political analysis?
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy
critical political analysis six points

• critical foreign policy analysis should be
  empirical without being empiricist norms and
  subjectivity matter
• both structure and agency need to be considered
• politics must be viewed broadly not just what
  governments do
• sensitive to issues of social construction
• foreign policy is never simply the realm of
  necessity
• being critical does not entail assuming bad faith
  about leaders

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy
critical political analysis
taken together, we believe that a critical
approach to foreign policy offers significant
potential for looking at foreign policy within a
wider notion of politics than has traditionally
been the case within FPA (p. 6)
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy
confused? dont worry (for now). things should
become clearer as we proceed.
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy
some basics
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• two basic definitions
• foreign policy. the strategy or approach chosen
  by a national government to achieve its goals in
  relation with external entities (usually other
  governments)
• foreign policy analysis (FPA). a subfield of
  political science that seeks to explain foreign
  policy or foreign policy behavior FPA is
  distinguished from IR in its focus on
  sub-national, actor-specific, and multi-casual
  and multi-level analysis

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• intro foreign policy analysis
• foreign policy analysis is a relatively recent
  field that stands in sharp contrast to the grand
  theories of IR (e.g., realism)
• three seminal or paradigmatic works
• Decision-Making as an Approach to the Study of
  International Politics by Richard Snyder
• Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy by
  James Rosenau
• Man-Mileau Relationship Hypotheses in the Context
  of International Politics by Harold and Margaret
  Sprout

1.
2.
3.
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• intro foreign policy analysis
• key lessons
• SNYDER. researchers need to look below the
  nation-state level of analysis to the players
  involved focus should be on decision-making
  process, not just outcomes
• ROSENAU. states are not all the same, but there
  are patterns and similarities among types of
  states that we can uncover making foreign policy
  behavior explainable and predictable
• SPOUTS. psychological factors (the
  psycho-mileau) and perceptions are important

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• intro foreign policy analysis
• key lessons led to further refinements, focusing
  on new research pathways
• small group decision-making (groupthink)
• organizational process and bureaucratic politics
• comparative foreign policy
• psychological (cognitive) influences
• societal milieux

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• intro foreign policy analysis

small group decision-making (groupthink) Refers
to the process and structure of groups making
foreign policy decisions. Group decision making
tends to have its own dynamic, but a particularly
important aspect is the tendency by participants
to maintain group consensus and personal
acceptance. The result is often a deterioration
of decision-making quality.
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy
organizational process and bureaucratic politics
Based on the idea that organizations and
bureaucracies have their own interests and
compete with other organizations to stay on
top. Turf battles impact the decision-making
process. Organizational dynamics (e.g., standard
operating procedures) also shape responses and
behavior.
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• intro foreign policy analysis

comparative foreign policy Focused on foreign
policy events on a cross-national basis as a way
to analyze and predict foreign policy behavior
for all nations for all time. Effort proved less
than successful.
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• intro foreign policy analysis

psychological influences on foreign policy Based
on the premise that individual perceptions and
cognitive processes had a profound impact on the
policy making process. Psychological approaches
focused attention on the mind of the foreign
policy decision-maker.
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• intro foreign policy analysis

societal milieux and foreign policy Looked at the
overarching social context in which decisions are
made culture, history, geography, economics,
political institutions, military power, ideology,
demographics, media, and so on. Researchers
believed all these factors could play a role in
the making of foreign policy.
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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

• foreign policy analysis contemporary agenda
• foreign policy analysis in the post-cold war era
  is still evolving there are, however, some clear
  commitments that most researchers share
• commitment to looking below the nation-state
  level
• commitment to build middle-range theory
• commitment to pursue multi-causal explanations
  spanning multiple levels of analysis
• commitment to utilize theory and findings from
  across the spectrum of social science
• commitment to viewing the process of foreign
  policy decision-making (i.e., how policy gets
  made) as important as the output thereof

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy
changing gears theories offoreign policy
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introduction to theorythe study of foreign policy
general notes about theory definitions simply
put, theories are explanations of how something
or some process works theories are used to
identify cause-and-effect relationships and to
make predictions another definition. a theory is
a framework of analysis within which facts are
not only selected, but also interpreted,
organized, and fit together so that they create a
coherent whole a theory helps us explain or
better understand the world in which we live
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introduction to theorythe study of foreign policy
general notes about theory theories are
necessarily simplifications of a more complex
whole theories are not reality, but they are
designed to tell use something meaningful and
important about the real world
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introduction to theorythe study of foreign policy
general notes about theory additional
points first, the various theories of foreign
policy are not dependent on whether they are
accepted or even understood by policy makers
themselves second, theory and practice may be
mutually constitutive third, the theories we
study are sometimes compatible, but sometimes
contradictory
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an introduction to realism
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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• realism and foreign policy
• key questions
• what is realism?
• how is it applied to the analysis and practiceof
  foreign policy
• what are the pitfalls in applying realist
  theoriesto foreign policy analysis?
• what is a useful set of guidelines for
  avoidingthose pitfalls and using realist
  insights tosharpen the analysis of foreign
  policy?

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• what is realism?
• core principles
• groupism. humans are divided into groups and
  humans depend on their own groups for safety and
  survival
• egoism. self-interest ultimately drives political
  behavior
• power-centrism. power is the fundamental feature
  of politics

to realists, these are all fundamental truths
about the the world they are the rules by which
world politics operate. such rules have
consequences they shape human behavior in
particular ways
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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• what is realism?
• additional principles
• central questions focus on the causes of war and
  conflict
• the structure of the international system is a
  necessary, but not always sufficient for
  explaining relations among states
• primary unit of analysis is the sovereign state
• states are first and foremost guided by national
  interests defined in terms of power
• states are rational, unitary actors

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• what is realism?
• ? the key concept in realism in anarchy
• dictionary definition absence of government
  the state of society where there is no law or
  supreme power a state of lawlessness political
  confusion.
• in realism, anarchy is not the absence of
  government per se, but is instead the absence of
  a sovereign authority that exists above the
  state. to (many) realists, moreover, the
  international system is not confused, but is
  governed by a structure of power dominated by
  the strongest states

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• what is realism?
• ? implications of anarchy
• in an anarchic system, an unavoidable logic
  prevails, one based on the notion,survival of
  the fittest.
• in an anarchic world, only the strong survive
  and prosper you can only count on yourself for
  help friends are friends only when it serves
  their interests
• one of the clearest enunciations of the
  principles and implications of anarchy can be
  found in a few good men

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy
what is realism? a scene from a few good men
you cant handle the truth! what is the truth
that tom cruises character cannot handle?
Video file intentionallyremoved
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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• what is realism?
• theoretical schools within realism
• ? realism is a diverse school of thought that
  includes several variants
• classical realism
• neorealism (or structural realism)
• defensive realism (inside-out variant)
• offensive realism (hyper-realism)
• neoclassical realism (foreign policy realism)

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• what is realism?
• specific theories within realism
• ? the diversity of realism is also evident in
  specific theories of realism
• balance of power
• balance of threat
• hegemonic stability theory
• power transition theory

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• realism assumptions, conditions and theories
  some caveats
• do not confuse assumptions (groupism, egoism, and
  power-centrism) with scope conditions (anarchy)
• anarchy is a variable condition where it is
  strongest, the potential for conflict is highest
  where it is attenuated, orderis stronger
• do not confuse assumptions with predictions
• conflict is not an assumption, but a prediction
  realists predict conflict under certain
  conditions of anarchy

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• using realism in analyzing foreign policy
• along with caveats, using realism requires a
  careful integration of the deductive logic of
  realist principles and the on-the-ground dynamics
  of specific and concrete foreign policy
  situations
• integration is key
• examples. consider hegemonic stability theory
  and anti-US counter-balancing in the1990s
  ----gt next slide

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• using realism in analyzing foreign policy
• example. anti-US counterbalancing
• prominent realists, such as waltz, predicted that
  the collapse of the soviet union would lead to
  immediate counterbalancing against theu.s.
• it did not happen, but the failure to predict
  correctly was less a problemwith realism and
  more a problem with a misapplication of realist
  principlesand a failure to consider the
  concretedetails of the post-cold war era

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• using realism in analyzing foreign policy key
  lesson
• foreign policy analysts must not be dogmatic
  realists--or anti-realists. they should know
  theories without becoming overly committed to any
  one
• the best approach is to embrace a constant
  dialogue between case expertise and general
  theory whenever possible
• remember this saying
• the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog
  knows one big thing(Archilochus)

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introduction to realismchapter 2 realism and
foreign policy

• using realism in analyzing foreign policy key
  lesson
• foreign policy analysts should be foxes and not
  hedgehogs