Madan M. Dey

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IMPACT OF MARKETING, TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATE
POLICIES ON U.S. CATFISH MARKETS RESULTS FROM
US-Catfish MODEL
Madan M. Dey Kehar Singh Carole R.
Engle Aquaculture/Fisheries Center University of
Arkansas at Pine Bluff
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Why Economic Modeling?

• U.S. industries have matured
• Affected by
• Dynamics of global economy
• Federal, state policies
• International trade
• Other segments of U.S. agriculture benefit from
  economic models.

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Southern Regional Aquaculture Center Funded a
project to Develop Economic Models of U.S.
catfish trout
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US-Catfish Model General Framework
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US-Catfish Model
Different Products
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Policy Options Considered

• Changes in Catfish feed prices
• Effects of TCI advertising expenditures
• Effects of various anti-dumping tariff levels
• Effect of COOL (Country of Origin Labeling)
• Changes in U.S. per capita income
• Changes in exchange rates with U.S.

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Behavioral Equations/Models
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Behavioral Equations/Models

• Farmers
• Processors
• Consumers
• Exporters/Importers

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FARM-RAISED CATFISH SUPPLY EQUATION
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CONSUMER DEMAND (SHARE) EQUATIONS
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IMPORT DEMAND EQUATIONS
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PROCESSORS SUPPLY EQUATIONS
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PROCESSORS DEMAND OF U.S. FRAM-RAISED CATFISH
EQUATION
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Impact of Policies
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Effects of Changes in Feed Prices
A decrease in feed price would benefit the U.S.
farm-raised catfish industry along with marginal
gains to imported channel catfish and basa/tra.
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Effects of Changes in TCI Advertisement
Expenditure
An increase in TCI expenditures would benefit
U.S. farm-raised catfish marginally however, it
would reduce imports significantly.
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Effects of Changes in Tariff on Basa/Tra
Imported channel catfish would benefit more than
U.S. farm-raised catfish with an increase in
tariff levels on basa/tra imported from Vietnam
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Effects of COOL
COOL has benefited U.S. farm-raised catfish
marginally, but has hurt channel catfish imports
significantly. COOL has resulted in an increase
in U.S. consumers and farmers surplus however,
U.S. processors surplus have declined
marginally.
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Effects of Changes in U.S. Per Capita Income
Increase in U.S. per capita income would have a
positive impact on the catfish industry as a
whole, with a greater positive impact on imported
channel catfish and imported basa/tra.
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Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates

• Increased Exchange Rate (VND/USD)
• Increase basa/tra imports
• Decrease channel catfish import
• Marginally expand U.S. farm-raised catfish market

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Thanks to SRAC for financial support Thank you
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