Indicators of Deprivation and Wellbeing in Modern America: A Look Beyond the Poverty Rate

1
Indicators of Deprivation and Wellbeing in Modern
AmericaA Look Beyond the Poverty Rate

• Nicholas Eberstadt
• Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy
• American Enterprise Institute
• eberstadt_at_aei.org
• Poverty Seminar 6
• March 8, 2005

2
Outline of Presentation

• 1) The Poverty Rate as a predictor of
  socioeconomic progress and household consumption
• 2) Expenditure patterns of poor/low income
  households and associated household
  characteristics in four major consumption areas
• (Nutrition Housing Transportation
  Health)
• 3) Additional Indicators of Wellbeing
• --Subjective Wellbeing (Happiness)
• --Crime/Security
• --Welfare Dependence
• --Family Stability
• --Religion in Personal Life
• --Financial Emergencies
• 4) Some suggestions for other indicators of
  wellbeing

3
U.S. Poverty Rate, 1959-2003
Source U. S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty
Tables, available online at http//www.census.gov
/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html. Accessed
2/17/05
4
No Progress for Three Decades?U.S. Poverty Rate,
1973-2003
Source U. S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty
Tables, available online at http//www.census.gov
/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html. Accessed
2/17/05
5
Poverty Rate and Other Possible Indicators of
Progress against Poverty 1973 vs. 2001
Sources U.S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty
Tables, Table 2. Available online at
http//www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2
.html accessed 2/25/05. U.S. Census Bureau
Historical Income Tables, Table P-1. Available
online at http//www.census.gov/hhes/income/histin
c/incperdet.html accessed 2/15/05. House Ways
and Means Committe Prints 108-6, 2004 Green
Book, Appendix F and K. Available online at
http//www.gpoaccess.gov/wmprints/green/2004.html
accessed 2/15/05. U.S. Census Bureau,
Statistical Abstract of the United States 2003.
Mini Historical Statistics Table HS-22.
Available online at http//www.census.gov/statab/
hist/HS-22.pdf, accessed 2/15/05
6
Do U.S. Economic, Labor Force and Antipoverty
Policy Trends Correspond with the Poverty
Rate? Regressions for 1973-2002
Key PCI Per Capita Money Income in
Thousand US UNEM Civilian Unemployment Rate
HS25 Percentage of U.S. Population 25 and
Older with at least High School Education ANTIPV
Per Capita U.S. Means Tested Spending in
Thousand US (2002 constant dollars)
plt 0.05 p lt 0.001 Parenthetical
numbers are t-statistics year 1974 excluded
(lack of ANTIPV data)
7
Overall Consumer Expenditure Patterns for USA
1960/61 vs. 2002
Note 1960/61 suvey results deflated by CPI-U-RS
index (http//www.census.gov/hhes/income/ince02/cp
iurs/html) mean value of 1960 and 1961
used. Sources Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975
Reference Edition, BLS Bulletin 1865 (1978),
Table 137 Consumer Expenditures in 2002, BLS
Reports 974, February 2004, available
electronically at http//www.bls.gov/cex/cxsann02.
pdf
8
Consumer Expenditure Patterns for Low Income
Americans 1960/61-2002
Note Earlier surveys deflated by CPI-U-RS index,
mean value of reported years used for 1960/61 and
1972/73. Sources Handbook of Labor Statistics
1975, loc. cit., Table 137 Consumer Expenditures
Survey Interview Survey 1972-73, BLS Bulletin
1997 (1978), Volume I, Table 10 Consumer
Expenditures in 2002, loc. cit.
9
Average Annual Expenditures and Income, Lowest
Income Quintile 1984-2002
Note Income and expenditures adjusted by
CPI-U. Source United States Census Bureau
Current Population Reports "Income in the United
States, 2002." September, 2003. U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Consumer
Expenditure Survey." Available online at
http//www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p60-221.pdf,
accessed 2/28/05.
10
Possible factors in the rising long term ratio of
expenditures to income for lowest quintile

• Changes in survey methods/procedures
• Increased importance of non-cash benefits
• Increased importance of unreported income/gifts
• Increased year-to-year variations in household
  income

11
Episodic vs. Chronic Poverty Measured Poverty
for One Month vs. 48 Straight Months, 1996-1999
Source Dynamics of Economic Well-BeingPoverty
1996-1999, U.S. Bureau of the Census, July 2003.
Available online at http//www.census.gov/prod/2
003pubs/p70-91.pdf, accessed 2/27/05
12
Duration of Poverty Spells 1996-1999
Note Percent. Excludes spells underway during
the first interview month Source Dynamics of
Economic Well-BeingPoverty 1996-1999, U.S.
Bureau of the Census, July 2003. Available
online at http//www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p70-
91.pdf, accessed 2/27/05
13
Long-term Probability of Staying in Poverty, by
Age 1996-1999
Source U.S. Census Bureau Dynamics of Economic
Well-Being Poverty, 1996 to 1999. Available
online at http//www.census.gov/hhes/www/sipp96/s
ipp96.html, accessed 2/27/05.
14
Is Year-to-Year US Income Variability
Increasing?Total Family Income Variance and
Transitory Variance, 1969-1998
Source Calculations based on PSID data.
Professor Jacob S. Hacker, Yale University.
Available online at http//pantheon.yale.edu/jha
cker/PSID_Data_NYT.htm accessed 2/25/05
15
Composition of Expenditures for Low-Income
HouseholdsChanging Characteristics

• Food/Nutrition
• Housing/Appliances
• Transportation
• Health

16
Composition of Consumer Expenditures for USA
1960/61 vs. 2002 (percent)
Note n/a not available. Sources Handbook of
Labor Statistics 1975, loc. cit., Table 137,
Consumer Expenditures in 2002, loc. cit.
17
Composition of Consumer Expenditures for Low
Income Americans 1960/61-2002 (percent)
Note n/a not available Sources Handbook of
Labor Statistics 1975, Table 137 Consumer
Expenditure Series, 1972-73, Vol I, Table 10
Consumer Expenditures in 2002, loc. cit.
18
Percentage of Household Spending Allocated to
Food 1960/61 (BLS CEX Survey)
19
Percentage of the U.S. Population Underweight,
1960/62-1999/2002
Note Body mass index of less than 18.5 defined
as underweight. Sources Derived from Health
USA 2004. Available online at
ftp//ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publ
ications/Health_US/hus04tables/Table069.xls,
accessed 2/27/05.
20
Percentage of Medically Examined Low-Income
Children who are of Short Stature or Underweight
1973-2003
Note Short Stature and Underweight
thresholds defined at 5 percentile level of
expected norms Source 2003 Pediatric Nutrition
Surveillance National Summary of Trends in Growth
and Anemia IndicatorsChildren Aged less than 5
years, Table 12D. Available online at
http//www.cdc.gov/pednss/pednss_tables/html/pedn
ss_national_table12.htm, accessed 2/28/05.
21
Percentage of Medially Examined Low Income
Children with Low Hemoglobin Count, 1973-2003
Source 2003 Pediatric Nutrition Surveillance
National Summary of Trends in Growth and Anemia
IndicatorsChildren Aged less than 5 years,
Table 12D. Available online at
http//www.cdc.gov/pednss/pednss_tables/html/pedn
ss_national_table12.htm, accessed 2/28/05.
22
Selected Housing Characteristics Poor and Other
Households, USA 1970-2001
Note n/a not available Sources Derived from
Census of Population 1970 Subject Reports,
Low-Income Population Final Report PC (2)-91
Low-Income Population, (Bureau of the Census,
1973), Table 36 1980 Census of Housing Volume
1 Characteristics of Housing Units HC 80-1a
(Bureau of the Census, 1983), Table 1s.
Residential Energy Consumption Survey Housing
Characteristics 1980 Edition (Department of
Energy, Energy Information Administration, 1982,
Tables 9, 26 1990 Edition (DOE, 1992), Tables
15 2001 edition (DOE 2003) Table CEI-5.1a, CEI
5.2a, CE 2.3c available electronically at
http//www.eia.doe.gov/emea/rec37 American
Housing Survey of the United States (Bureau of
the Census), 2001 edition (2003), Tables 2-3, 2-4.
23
Selected Housing Appliances Poor and Other
Households, USA 1970-2001 (percent)
Notes n/a not available color
television automatic clothes washer 2
sum of values for most used and second most
used household oven.
Sources 1970 Census, loc. cit., Table 36 RECS
Housing Survey, 1980 edition, Tables 26, 37.
1990 edition, Tables 22, 38 2001 edition,
Tables HC5-3a, HC 7-3a, America Housing Survey,
1989 edition, Table 2-4 2001 edition, Table 2-4.
24
Motor Vehicle Patterns for Low Income Americans,
1972/73-2003 (percent)
Memorandum item Share of U.S. families owning
one or more cars in 1960 77 share owning two
or more cars 15 Note n/a not
available Sources Consumer Expenditure Survey
1972/73, loc. cit., Volume I, Table 10 American
Housing Survey for the United States (Bureau of
the Census) 1985 edition (1988), Table 2-7 1989
edition (1991), Table 2-7 2003 edition (2004)
Table 2-7. Historical Statistics of the United
States Colonial Times to 1970 (Bureau of the
Census 1975), Vol. II, p. 717.
25
Poverty Rates vs. Infant Mortality RatesUSA,
White Children, 1959-2001
Sources Supplemental Analysis of Recent Trends
in Infant Mortality, by Kenneth D. Kochanek,
M.A., and Joyce A. Martin, M.P.H. Available
online at http//www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/p
ubd/hestats/infantmort/infantmort.htm, accessed
2/14/05. U.S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty
Tables, available online at http//www.census.gov/
hhes/poverty/histpov/perindex.html, accessed
2/14/05. Health USA 2004, National Center for
Health Statistics. Available online at
http//www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus04trend.pdf,
accessed 2/23/05. National Center for Health
Statistics Deaths Final Data for 1997,
available online at http//www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/n
vsr/nvsr47/nvs47_19.pdf, accessed 2/14/05.
26
Infant Morality vs. Low Birth WeightUSA, White
Children, 1950-2000
Sources Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,
July 12, 2002. Available online at
http//www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5127a1
.htm, accessed 2/23/05. Health USA 2004,
National Center for Health Statistics.
Available online at http//www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/h
us/hus04trend.pdf, accessed 2/23/05.
27
Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates US Population
25-64, 1950-2002
Source National Center for Health Statistics,
available online at ftp//ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_
Statistics/NCHS/Publications?Health_US/hus04tables
28
Proportion of Adult Population with Untreated
Dental Caries 1960/62-1999/2000
Note Adults ages 18-79. Source Source James
E. Kelly, Lawrence E. Van Kirk, and Caroline C.
Garst, "Decayed, Missing and Filled Teeth in
Adults, 1960-1962",NCHS Series 11, no.
23(February 1967), DHEW, Table 4. Health USA
2004, National Center for Health Statistics.
Table 80, available online at http//ftp.cdc.gov/
pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/Health_US/
hus04tables/Table080.xls, accessed 2/23/05.
29
Proportion of 65 Population with no Remaining
Natural Teeth 1960/62-2000
Sources James E. Kelly, Lawrence E. Van Kirk,
and Caroline Garst, "Total Loss of Teeth in
Adults United States, 1960-62) NCHS Series 11,
no 27, October 1967, DHEW, p.2. Health USA
2004, National Center for Health Statistics.
Available online at http//www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/
hus/hus04trend.pdf, accessed 2/23/05.
30
Percent of children under 18 years without a
health care visit in the past year, by percent
of poverty threshold
Year
Data Source National Health Interview Survey
31
Additional Indicators of Wellbeing

• Subjective Wellbeing (Happiness)

32
Income and Happiness
Source From Happiness Does Social Science Have
a Clue? by Richard Layard. Lionel Robbins
Memorial Lectures, delivered on 3, 4, 5 March
2003 at the London School of Economics.
Available online at http//cep.lse.ac.uk/events/l
ectures/layard/RL030303.pdf. Accessed 2/22/05.
33
Income and Happiness in the USA
Source From Happiness Does Social Science Have
a Clue? by Richard Layard. Lionel Robbins
Memorial Lectures, delivered on 3, 4, 5 March
2003 at the London School of Economics.
Available online at http//cep.lse.ac.uk/events/l
ectures/layard/RL030303.pdf. Accessed 2/22/05.
34
Suicide Rate, 1900-2002
Sources Historical Statistics of the United
States Colonial Times to 1970. U.S. Census
Bureau. Available online at http//www2.census.g
ov/prod2/statcomp/documents/CT1970p1-09.pdf,
accessed 2/15/05. National Center for Health
Statistics Data Warehouse, HIST 290. Available
online at http//www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/d
ocuments/CT1970p1-09.pdf, accessed 2/15/05.
National Center for Health Statistics Data
Warehouse, Provisional Tables on Births,
Marriages, Divorces and Deaths, 2000-2002.
Available online at http//www.cdc.gov/nchs/dataw
h/statab/unpubd/nvstab52.htm, accessed 2/16/05.
35
Effects on Happiness
Source Happiness Lessons from a New Science, by
Richard Layard. Penguin Press New York, 2005
36
Additional Indicators

• Crime/Physical Security

37
Total and Violent Crime Rates USA, 1965-2002
Source U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of
Justice Statistics. Available online at
http//bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Cr
ime/State/StatebyState.cfm, accessed 2/14/05
38
Homicide Rate USA, 1950-2002
Source Homicide trends in the United States,
Bureau of Justice Statistics Sept. 28, 2004.
Available online at www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicid
e, accessed 2/27/05.
39
Recorded robbery rate per 1,000 populationUSA
and Selected Countries, 1980-2000
From Cross-National Studies in Crime and
Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Sept.
2004. Available online at http//www.ojp.usdoj.g
ov/bjs/pub/pdf/cnscj.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.
40
U.S. Incarceration Rate, 1977-2003
Sources Correctional populations in the United
States, 1997 U.S. Department of Justice Bureau
of Justice Statistics. Available online at
http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrtta
b.htm, accessed 2/14/05. Prisoners in 2003
U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice
Statistics. Available online at
http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrtt
ab.htm, accessed 2/14/05.
41
Jail and Prison Population USA,1980-2003
Note Totals for 1998 through 2003 exclude
probationers in jail or prison. Source U.S.
Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice
Statistics Correctional Surveys (The Annual
Probation Survey, National Prisoner Statistics,
Survey of Jails, and The Annual Parole Survey.)
Available online at http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
glance/tables/corr2tab.htm, accessed 2/14/05.
42
Percent of Men Incarcerated, Midyear 2003
Source Prison and Jail Inmates at Midyear
2003, By Paige M. Harrison and Jennifer C.
Karberg, May 2004 http//www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub
/pdf/pjim03.pdf.
43
Based on current rates of first incarceration,
an estimated 32 of black males will enter
State or Federal prison during their lifetime,
compared to 17 of Hispanic males and 5.9 of
white males.
--Criminal Offenders Statistics, DOJ Bureau of
Justice Statistics Website http//www.ojp.usdoj.go
v/bjs/crimoff.htmfindings December 28, 2004
44
Additional Indicators

• Dependence on Means-Tested Government Benefits

45
Welfare Dependence in AmericaPercentage of HHs
Receiving Cash Aid and Non-Cash Benefits vs the
Family Poverty Rate, USA 1979-2002
Sources U.S. Census Bureau Statistical Abstract
of the United States, 1995 available online at
http//www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/index.htm,
accessed 2/26/05. CPS Annual Population Survey
U.S. Census Bureau and BLS, various years
available online at http//www.census.gov/hhes/inc
ome/dinctabs.html , accessed 2/26/05.
46
Additional Indicators

• Family Stability

47
First Marriage Rate, 1972-1990
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract
of the United States 2003, Table 83. Available
online at http//www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/03s
tatab/vitstat.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.
48
Marriage and Divorce Rates USA, 1950-2001
Source Monthly Vital Statistics Report, July
14, 1995. National Center for Health Statistics.
Available online at http//www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/
mvsr/supp/mv43_12s.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.
49
Percentage of Children Born to Unmarried Women
USA, 1940-2002
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract
of the United States 2003. Available online at
http//www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-14.pdf,
accessed 2/27/05.
50
Percentage of Children Living with Both
Biological Parents, USA 1980-1996
Traditional nuclear family married biological
parents and biological siblings in nuclear
household. Sources Census Bureau Current
Population Reports Living Arrangements of
Children, 1996, pp. 70-74. Available online at
http//www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/p70-74.pdf,
accessed 3/1/05.
51
Childhood Expectancy of the Duration of Living in
Selected Family Structures (in years, from birth
to age 15) by childs Birth Status Children of
the FFS Female Respondents, early 1990s
Notes Countries are listed in ascending order
according to the expected duration of living (in
years) with parents apart (shown in col. 7).
See Figure 1 for definitions of the lables for
columns 1 to 6. Columns 1 to 6 are derived from
synthetic cohorts at early 1990 rates. The
difference between 15 years and the value tin
column 7 is the childhood expectancy of the
duration of living with both biological parents.
In the United States, e.g., that expectancy is
9.88 years. Source Shifting Child Rearing to
Single Mothers Results from 17 Western Nations.
Population and Development Review 29(1) 47-71.
March 2003. (Heuveline, P. Timberlake, J.M.
Furstenberg, F.F. Jr.)
52
Abortion Number, Ratio and Rate 1970-2001
Note Data for 1998-99 excludes estimates for AK,
CA, NH, and OK, which did not report number of
legal abortions. Data for 2001-02 excludes
estimates for AK, CA, and NH, which did not
report number of legal abortions. Beginning in
1996, the ratio was based on births reported by
the NCHS, CDC. From Morbidity and Mortality
Weekly Report Abortion Surveillance, Nov. 26,
2004. Available online at http//www.cdc.gov/mmw
r/PDF/ss/ss5309.pdf, accessed 2/14/05.
53
Additional Indicators

• Religion in personal life

54
Judeo-Christians as a Proportion of Americans
1972-2002
Source Derived from The Vanishing Protestant
Majority by Tom W. Smith and Seokho Kim. NORC /
University of Chicago, July 2004. GSS Social
Change Report No. 49, Table 2.
55
Percentage of Population who Agree with the
Statement, Religion plays a very important role
in my life. Selected Countries, 2002
From The Economist, November 8, 2003.
56
Percentage of U.S. Population that Belongs to a
Church 1960-2000
From The Economist, November 8, 2003.
57
Additional Indicators

• Financial Emergencies

58
National 4-Year Cumulative Foreclosure Rates for
All FHA Loans Originated during Fiscal Years
19801998
From Mortgage Financing Changes in the
Performance of FHA-Insured Loans Report to the
Chairwoman, Subcommittee on Housing and
Community Opportunity, Committee on Financial
Services, House of Representatives, July 2002.
59
Some Possible Additional Indicators

• age-standardized mortality by poverty status
• incarceration/probation-free life expectancy
  trends
• trends and characteristics of population
  suffering financial emergencies (bankruptcy,
  eviction, repossession, utilities shutoff, etc.)
• trends/characteristics of no fixed address
  population

• trends in rates of total first marriage and total
  first divorce
• trends in children living with both biological
  parents
• indicators of religion in personal life
• deprivation indicators for Native American/Indian
  reservation population