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Splash Page
A Municipal Perspective
Local Solutions to Our Energy Dilemma 28 April
2006 David Room, Founder dave_at_energypreparedn
ess.net

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Todays Path

• Framing Our Predicament
• Energy Supply Vulnerabilities
• Energy Preparedness
• M-C-R Framework
• Application to Municipalities
• Next Steps

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Global Frame
Knowing where you are is nine tenths of
navigation
wise seaman
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Municipal Frame
Average 62 Standard Deviation 5
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Oil Prices 4/02 to 4/06
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Oil Shockwave Scenario
The real lesson here is that it only requires
a relatively small amount of oil to be taken
out of the system to have huge economic
and security implications. Robert M. Gates Oi
l Shockwave National Security Advisor

• Real-life former top officials
• Developed by Securing Americas Future Energy
  the National Commission on Energy Policy in June
  2005
  
• Series of Cabinet meetings over 7 months to
  advise the President
  
• Oil supply reductions of less than 4 would cause
  161 a barrel
  
• 5.32-a-gallon gasoline
• World economy wobbling into recession

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Energy Supply Vulnerabilities

• Political
• Political disruption in Venezuela
• Insurgency and sabotage in Nigeria
• Sabotage of Saudi Arabia export facilities
• Civil war and sabotage in Iraq
• Export embargo in Iran
• Ecological
• Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico
• Pipeline damage from melting permafrost
• Cold winter weather
• Geological
• Global oil peak
• Natural gas shortages
• Other
• Blackouts
• Refinery capacity shortages and maintenance

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Energy Preparedness

• Analogue to Disaster Preparedness
• The extent to which an individual, group, or
  entity is
  
• well-positioned for escalating energy prices and
  supply disruptions
  
• committed to using less energy
• addressing structural issues that lock in energy
  consumption

The Real Homeland Security?!
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161 Questions

• Effect on general fund services?
• Effect on fee-based services?
• Services to cut or cut back?
• Will requisite price increases be affordable for
  constituents?
  
• Should constituents be warned?

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Key Risk Factors

• Energy Prices
• escalation
• volatility
• Supply Disruptions
• duration
• frequency
• Ramifications
• economic
• social
• ecological

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M-C-R Framework

• Assess vulnerabilities and, as appropriate,
  Mitigate risks to key activities,
  responsibilities, and dependencies
  
• Commit to a path that reduces energy consumption
  through monitoring, conservation, efficiency, and
  curtailment
  
• Reengineer economic relationships,
  infrastructure, and operations to yield drastic
  reductions in energy consumption

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The Municipal Perspective

• Mitigate risks to municipal services such as
  fire, police, water, sewage, trash collection,
  tax revenues
  
• Commit to reducing energy consumption of entire
  municipality including civil society
  
• Reengineer the local economy and built
  infrastructure

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Detail and Examples
SHORT TERM MEDIUM
LONG
I. Identify Vulnerabilities Mitigate Risk Ene
rgy Budget Scenario analysis Contingency plannin
g
Decision analysis
Queensland, Australia Sebastopol, CA Franklin, N
Y
San Francisco, CA
II. Commit to a low energy course
Adoption of Oil Depletion Protocol
Energy use reduction strategy and plan
Richard Heinberg/PCI
IEA, various efforts
III. Reengineer Economies Cities
Relocalization
Reconfiguring cities
Willits Economic Localization Bay Area Relocalize

Kinsale Energy Descent Plan
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Identifying Vulnerabilities Managing Risks
Immediate Mitigations
Municipal Energy Budget
Threat Analysis
DecisionAnalysis
ProactiveDecisions
ScenarioPlanning
Contingency Planning
Energy PriceScenarios
ReactiveDecisions
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Municipal Energy Budget

• Detailed accounting
• Fuel and energy sources used
• In dollars and quantities
• By department and month
• Total budget as well
• Planning assumptions

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Oil Price Scenarios
Other Important Scenarios Supply DisruptionTax R
evenues
Peak Oil
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Municipal Energy Survey

• Budgeting and procurement
• Time horizon
• Planning assumptions
• Energy pricing
• Supply disruptions
• Tax and fee-based service revenues
• Disruption backup capabilities
• How information is stored

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Screening Analysis

• Develop methodology that provides first cut and
  refinements as appropriate
  
• Municipalities may not have data readily
  available if at all
  
• Identify data management issues
• Identify departments/services that will be
  significantly impacted by price escalation and/or
  supply disruption
  
• Identify possible mitigations and opportunities
  to reduce fossil energy consumption

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David Room, Founder dave_at_energypreparedness.net