An overview of the Doha Development Agenda

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An overview of the Doha Development Agenda
Trade Policy and WTO AccessionA Training of
Trainers Course for Russia and the CIS March 22,
2006

• CARSTEN FINK

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Overview

• Why negotiate at the WTO?
• The Doha Mandate
• Key negotiating milestones
• Cancun Ministerial Meeting (2003)
• July 2004 Framework Agreement
• Hong Kong Ministerial Meeting (2005)
• Key negotiating issues across sectors
• Whats next?

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Why negotiate at the WTO?

• Compared to unilateral liberalization, reciprocal
  trade liberalization holds certain political
  economy advantages
• Binding trade policy under international law
  removes uncertainty
• Why at the multilateral level?
• Liberalization is non-discriminatory (MFN)
• Subsidies can only be addressed meaningfully at
  the multilateral level

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The Launch of the DDA

• Doha Ministerial Conference (Nov 2001)
• Political context
• Two months after September 11, 2001
• Failed Seattle Ministerial Conference in 1999
• Development dimension results of Uruguay Round
  considered as unbalanced by developing
  countries
• In-built negotiating mandate in some areas
  (agriculture, services)
• Traditional interest in more liberal market
  access

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Negotiating mandate

• Core negotiating areas
• Agriculture
• Non-agricultural market access (NAMA)
• Services
• TRIPS (geographical indications/public health)
• WTO rules (e.g., anti-dumping, subsidies)
• Dispute Settlement Understanding
• Trade and the Environment

Not part of the Single Undertaking
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Other elements agreed to in Doha

• Declaration on TRIPS and Public Health
• Consider negotiations on the four so-called
  Singapore issues (investment, competition policy,
  transparency in government procurment, trade
  facilitation)
• Work program on outstanding implementation issues
• Special and differential treatment (SDT) for
  developing countries

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Why (initial) focus on agriculture?

• even though it provides less than 4 of global
  GDP and 9 of intl merchandise trade
• Arguably, most distorted segment of trade
• OECD manufacturing tariffs have fallen by 9/10ths
  over the past 60 years to lt4, while agricultural
  protection has risen
• Agric. applied (bound) tariffs now average nearly
  5 (10) times manufactures tariffs globally
• Northern subsidies depressing world prices
• Comparative advantage of developing countries,
  poor people rely on farming for a living

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Cancun Ministerial Conference

• Not much progress between 2001 and 2003, most
  negotiating deadlines missed
• Glimmer of hope August 2003 Decision on TRIPS
  and Public Health
• Failed Ministerial Conference
• No consensus on Singapore issues
• No progress towards modalities in agriculture
• Cotton initiative

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July 2004 Framework Agreement

• Political will to make progress in the
  negotiations
• Key elements
• Framework agreements in agriculture and NAMA
• Ambitious and expeditious treatment of cotton
  within agricultural negotiations
• Launch of negotiations on trade facilitation, no
  negotiations on other 3 Singapore issues

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Hong Kong Ministerial Conference

• Initial goal full modalities in agriculture and
  NAMA, bringing the round close to the finishing
  line
• Fall 2004 agriculture offers by the key players
  (US, EC, G-20, G10)
• But no consensus in sight, G-20/US argue that EC
  should improve its agriculture offer EC first
  wants to see movement in NAMA services
• WTO DG Pascal Lamy lowered ambition for the
  Ministerial Conference (but not for the DDA)

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Hong Kong Ministerial Conference

• Progress on TRIPS issues prior to Ministerial
• Key elements of the ministerial text
• Duty-free/quota-free access for Least Developed
  Countries
• Removal of export subsidies by 2013
• Agreement on a fast-track approach for cotton
• Greater detail on framework for full modalities
  in agriculture and services
• Plurilateral negotiations in services (to
  complement the bilateral request and offer
  process)

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The three pillars in agriculture

• Market access
• Agree on a formula for tariff reductions
• Find agreement on the number of sensitive
  products
• Special products/special safeguard mechanism for
  developing countries
• Export competition
• Phase-out of export subsidies
• Disciplines on food aid, export credits
• Domestic support
• Agree on a formula for cuts in domestic support
• Define what constitutes trade-distorting support

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Key issues in NAMA

• Agree on a formula for tariff reductions
• Sectoral initiatives (e.g., recent US-Swiss
  proposal on pharmaceutical products)
• Flexibilities for developing countries
• Treatment of non-tariff barriers
• Erosion of non-reciprocal trade preferences

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Key issues in services

• Fundamental difference to agriculture/NAMA
  negotiations proceed on a bilateral/request offer
  basis
• Process has produced ambitious requests, but
  existing offers are characterized as unambitious,
  implying little if any actual liberalization
• Plurilateral requests tabled in February/March
  2006

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Interest groups in the DDA
defensiveinterest
offensiveinterest
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Recently acceded countries

• Recently acceded countries have made ambitious
  commitments across all sectors
• Small, if any, gaps between bound and applied
  policies
• Further liberalization perceived as unfair and
  premature
• Ministerial texts says that this situation
  will be taken into account in the negotiations,
  but so far little specifics on flexibilities

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Whats next?

• Pessimistic view if progress wasnt possible
  before/at Hong Kong, why expect a breakthrough
  now?
• Key deadlines
• Full modalities in agriculture NAMA by April
  30, 2006 comprehensive draft schedules by July
  31, 2006
• Revised offers in services by July 31, 2006
  final commitments by October 31, 2006
• Firm deadline expiry of US Trade Promotion
  Authority in mid-2007