Policy Relevant Research and the Doha Development Agenda: Could We Do Any Worse

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Policy Relevant Research and the Doha Development
Agenda Could We Do Any Worse?

• Simon J. Evenett
• World Trade Institute, Bern
• simon.evenett_at_wti.org

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Organisation of this presentation

• What are the potential contributions of
  policy-relevant research on the Doha Development
  Agenda (DDA)?
• Documenting the dearth of serious and influential
  research on the DDA.
• Identifying the right general questions about the
  DDA.

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What are the potential contributions of
policy-relevant research on the DDA?

• What contribution, if any, could the DDA make to
  the prospects of developing countries?
• Research could inform
• National negotiators in Geneva/Cancun about
  merits of different proposals.
• Policy options available to decision makers in
  national capitals.
• Design of aid, capacity building, and technical
  assistance programmes.

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Criteria for policy-relevant research

• The following components should found in any
  strong body of development-related
  policy-relevant research on a given trade
  subject
• Detailed evidentiary base.
• Established analytical tools for WTO-related
  matters.
• Relevance for developing countries.
• Includes evaluation of actual policy proposals.
• Includes evaluation of possible policy options.
• On this criteria, how well does research on a
  number of trade matters under consideration at
  the WTO stack up?

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Key to understand following charts
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Evaluation of existing research
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How influential are available analyses? Evidence
from the Singapore Issues

• Examine the following sources to see what
  evidence is being cited by
• Trade officials in their submissions to the WTO.
• Scholars.
• Civil society, especially those in developing
  countries.
• Are these groups learning from each other?
• In tables that follow a blank cell indicates no
  or very few cites a grey cell means few
  citations and a black cell indicates lots of
  citations and clear evidence of inter-group
  discourse.
• Important caveats to this exercise

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What are participants citing? Government
procurement
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What are participants citing? Competition policy
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Summary on the dearth of influential research

• When it comes to the issues beyond trade in
  goods, available research falls down on just
  about every criteria.
• Weak evidentiary base on policies in place
  measures of cross-border and national
  transactions and measures of impediments to such
  transactions.
• Little analytical work relevant to DCs.
• Little relevance to issues discussed at the WTO.
• Little interchange between policymakers,
  scholars, and civil society.
• Also, very few analyses of social and
  environmental aspects of potential or actual
  reforms.
• Supply-side causes of this unsatisfactory outcome.

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Now, Now, Simon, be constructive identifying
classes of questions about the DDA

• The biggest question What contribution, if any,
  will the DDA make to the prospects of developing
  countries?
• This can be broken down into three further
  questions
• Questions about the appropriate scope of the DDA
  and the priorities for developing countries.
• Questions about the appropriate institutions and
  fora to address each element of the DDA.
• Questions about who participates in the Doha
  Round and associated initiatives.
• I would be nervous if experts from any one field
  attempted to answer these questions.

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Digging deeper scope of the DDA

• Scope-related claims made about the DDA
• Its all about market access
• Agricultural liberalisation is the key
• Implementation costs are significant for
  developing countries
• Securing the benefits of open borders requires
  new trade rules
• Etc
• Even when setting priorities across policy areas,
  research is needed on the pros and cons of
  proposed initiatives in each policy area.
• How might research on each policy area proceed?

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Analysing the DDA-related proposals in a given
policy area a road map

• What is the key development issue at stake? (Not
  the key negotiating issue). Includes overview of
  relevant evidence.
• What are the existing types and possible types of
  international collective action (ICA) in this
  policy area?
• What is the economic case for each type of ICA?
  Which type of ICA is preferable?
• What is the economic case for undertaking the
  preferred type of ICA in the WTO?
• What proposals have actually been advanced in
  this policy area at the WTO?
• How do those proposals stack against the
  arguments advanced in 3.-4. above? Includes any
  estimates of potential effects of those proposals
  and implications for policy options available.
• Are there other initiatives in this policy area
  that might better advance development than those
  currently proposed at the WTO?

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Concluding remarks

• Lets return to the title of the talk Policy
  Relevant Research and the Doha Development
  Agenda Could We Do Any Worse?
• Yes, but we can do a lot better too!
• Hopefully I have provided some indications of the
  questions, subject matter etc. that could improve
  the quality of discourse during the Doha Round.