Public Opinion and Voting Behavior of Groups

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Public Opinion and Voting Behavior of Groups

• GOVT 311 Lecture 15

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Which Groups have Meaningful Political
Differences?

• Class
• Race
• Age
• Religion
• Region
• Gender

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Pocketbook Voting

• We have seen that voters tend to use
  retrospective socio-tropic voting to make their
  voting decisions
• When it comes to issues important to particular
  groups, and to identification with parties that
  support those issues, we see a greater degree of
  pocketbook voting i.e., self-interested
  voting

4
Measuring Class

• Self-placement on social class (2004 GSS)
• Low 6
• Working 43
• Middle 49
• Upper 3
• Income and education do not directly correspond
  to class. Skilled working class jobs pay more
  than some white-collar, college educated middle
  class jobs.
• Growing income divide
• 1977 top one-fifth earned 44.2 of all income
• 1997 top one-fifth earned 50.4 of all income

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Class Warfare

• Domestic spending
• More support among lower classes for increased
  government spending on retirement benefits,
  unemployment, and child care.
• More support among upper class for science and
  technology spending and foreign aid
• More support among lower classes for government
  policies to provide a guaranteed job, standard of
  living, and universal health care
• Foreign policy More support among lower classes
  for an isolationist viewpoint
• Partisanship lower classes tend to align with
  Democrats

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Class Warfare on Non-Economic Policies

• Upper classes more likely to adopt more liberal
  viewpoint on equal treatment of women, abortion,
  gays rights, and criminal rights
• The Intersection of Class and Education
• Abortion differences among education levels most
  evident for low income persons
• Domestic spending differences among education
  levels most evident for high income persons

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Race

• When we talk about public opinion and voting
  behavior of races in the United States, we
  generally talk about White versus Black, since
  until recently there have not been enough people
  of other races to conduct reliable polls

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Race and Public Opinion

• Review of what we have discussed before
• Outer color line attitudes on issues of equality
  under the law, such as desegregated schools, have
  become notably more liberal among whites
• Intermediate color line on issues of equal
  access, such as jobs, there are stark differences
  between the races.
• There is also unequal perception in the problem
  In 1995 68 of Blacks said racism was a big
  problem compared to only 36 of Whites.
• The Inner color line personal relationships, has
  also seen a tolerant trend.
• Concern is that Whites have not actually become
  as more liberal as they say. Whites may desire
  to give the socially correct response to
  interviewers.

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Race and Voting Behavior

• Two defining events The New Deal (1930s) and the
  Civil Rights Movement (1960s)
• Vote for Kerry
• 87 of Blacks
• 60 of Hispanics
• 61 of Asians
• 42 of Whites
• Party Identification, Dem vs. Rep (2004)

• Vote for Obama
• 95 of Blacks
• 67 of Hispanics
• 62 of Asians
• 43 of Whites

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Existence of Age Differences

• Three reasons why age differences exist
• Composition effects younger people are more
  educated
• Life-cycle effects As people age, they become
  more conservative
• Generational effects Great events may shape
  peoples beliefs and attitudes

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Age and Public Opinion

• Domestic Issues Young people more supportive of
  increased government spending (especially student
  loans). On universal health insurance, nearly
  equal support among age groups, as young and old
  people need government insurance. (Life cycle?)
• On social issues Young people are decidedly more
  liberal on abortion, gay rights, and race.
  (Generational effects?)
• Foreign affairs Young people only slightly more
  liberal, though more internationalist at the
  same time.

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Age and Political Behavior

• Young people less interested in politics, more
  likely to believe the U.S. does not need
  political parties
• Voting rates of young people
• about 30 in presidential elections
• about 15 in congressional
• Young people decidedly more ideologically liberal
  (ET p.208)

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Measuring Religion

• United States most religious among Western
  democracies by a lot!
• Breakdown
• 53 Protestant
• 26 Catholic
• 2 Jewish
• 14 None
• Furthermore, break down Protestant into
  fundamentalists (25) and Secular (36)
• Book does not mention frequency of church
  attendance a powerful factor

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Differences Among Religions

• Protestants
• Focus on Protestant Ethic of individual
  responsibility
• Catholics
• Until recently, notably poorer
• Suffered discrimination as tend to be recent
  immigrants
• More conservative on abortion, but more liberal
  on death penalty
• Democrats have been more supportive of Catholic
  presidential candidates
• Jews
• Tend to be wealthier
• As a persecuted minority, tend to be more liberal
  on social issues
• None
• More liberal on social issues

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Religion and Public Opinion

• Domestic Spending Catholics and Jews tend to be
  slightly more liberal than Protestants
• Domestic Policy Protestants (slightly) tend to
  be most conservative
• Foreign Policy Protestants tend to be a little
  more isolationist, but at the same time are a
  little more pro-military

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The Protestant Divide

• Within Protestant Denominations, Fundamentalists
  (Baptists) tend to hold more conservative views
  that Secularists (Presbyterians and
  Episcopalians).
• Fundamentalists tend to be Southern, rural, poor,
  and less educated
• Secularists tend to be younger.
• Most striking is abortion 59 of Secularists
  support abortion in any case, 11 of
  fundamentalists (ET p.2004). Fundamentalists are
  more hawkish on foreign policy, and strongly
  support Israel.

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Religion and Political Behavior

• Vote for Kennedy
• Protestant 28
• Catholic 83
• Jewish 83
• Vote for Kerry
• Protestant 45
• Catholic 48
• Jewish 75

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Region

• Conventional Wisdom
• South more conservative and Democratic
• Northeast more liberal
• West more liberal (or libertarian)
• Midwest more conservative and isolationist
• Over time, the South is becoming more like the
  rest of the country, as attitudes towards
  Republicans change and as liberal non-southerners
  move into Southern metropolitan areas and retire
  in Florida (its all about air-conditioning).

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Within-region divide

• The urban-suburban-rural divide in American
  politics continues.