Public Opinion, Political Participation,

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Public Opinion,Political Participation,
Voting CH. 8
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Public Opinion

• Describes what the population thinks about
  politics and government

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Why is it important

• 1. Citizen action-opinion drives voting,
  contributing to campaigns, writing letters to
  senators and other activism
• 2. Determines campaign strategies, how members
  of Congress vote, influences Supreme
  Court(delayed effect)
• 3. Sheds light on why policy shifts over the
  course of time

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• The Population The relevant group of people for
  the question
• Consensus occurs when a substantial percentage
  of a sample agree on an issue
• Polarization occurs when a large portion of
  opposing sides feels intensely about an issue

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Public Opinion

• Taking the pulse of the people
• Intensity
• Latency
• Salience

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Public Opinion

• Definition distribution of individual
  preferences or evaluations of a given issue,
  candidate or institution.
• Distribution-the proportion of the population
  that holds one opinion or viewpoint as compared
  to those with opposing opinions or those with no
  opinion at all

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Taking the Pulse of the People

• Keys
• 1. proper sampling-a random choice of an
  appropriate set of people
• 2. art of asking questions-wording of question,
  questions are pretested, questioner trainedno
  voice intonations
• 3. Thorough analysis and reporting of results,
  accuracy, validated sample size, margin of error

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• Intensity-how strongly people feel about a
  candidate, issue or policy
• Latency-political opinions that exist merely as
  potential(havent crystallized)more concerned
  with personal issues than national issues
• Salience-extent to which people feel issues are
  relevant to them

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Agents of Political Socialization

• Family
• Schools
• Mass Media
• Religion
• Ethnic and racial attitudes

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How we acquire political opinions

• Political Socialization-process by which we
  develop our political attitudes, values and
  beliefs
• Nationalisma consciousness of the nation-state
  and of belonging to that entity is a common
  element of political socialization
• Importance of group affiliation vs. individual

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Sources of Political Socialization

• Family (parent-child similarity) disagreements
  between youths parents and friends
• Schools higher education and political
  correctness

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Sources continued

• Mass Media
• wide exposure to newspapers, Internet, movies,
  TV
• Why is media influential?
• media provides link between individuals and
  values/behavior of others

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Public Opinion and Public Policy

• Public opinion change can lead to policy
  change(Vietnam, Gulf War)
• Elected officials seek to follow public policy
  opinion
• Candidates use polls to determine where and how
  to campaign
• Political polls are no substitute for elections

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Awareness and Interest

• Varying levels of interest in politics
• Attentive public-25 of American publictend to
  be better educated.
• Nonvoters-35 political do-nothings
• Part-time citizens
• Only 60 of Americans can name one U.S. Senator

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Participation from opinion to action

• Influence government in what ways?
• 1 way--Voting, joining interest groups, writing
  letters, calls, etc.
• Totalitarian society-participation is very
  limited
• Even in a democracy, people may fight rather than
  accept election(U.S. Civil War)
• Routine participation-National Anthem, Pledge of
  Allegiance, jury duty

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Politics is a private matter in America

• Less than one person in four attempts to
  influence another persons vote
• Only one in 20 make a contribution to a
  candidate only one in six designates taxes to
  presidential fund

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Registration

• Voter registration discourages voting
• Australian ballot secret response to multiple
  voting
• Registration laws vary by state
• Only North Dakota does not require registration
• Most important provision of voter registration is
  the closing date-No state can stop registration
  more than 30 days before an election

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Motor Voter

• 1. Allows people to register when applying for a
  renewal of drivers license
• 2. States can also use schools/libraries/city/coun
  ty offices as registration sites
• 3. states can permit mail registration
• 4. Most registered claim to be independent which
  benefits neither party
• 5. Does not appear to have increased turnout

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Turnout

• Turnout is highest in presidential election
• Turnout is higher in general elections than in
  primary elections and higher in primary elections
  than in special elections

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Turnout continued

• Turnout is higher in presidential general
  elections than in midterm general elections and
  higher presidential primary elections than in
  midterm primary elections
• Turnout is higher in elections in which
  candidates for federal office are on the ballot
  than in state elections in years when there are
  no federal contests

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Turnout continued

• Local or municipal elections have lower turnout
  than state elections and municipal primaries have
  even lower rates of participation
• In 1960, turnout peaked at almost 65 percent of
  persons over 21 years of age, has since declined
  to 36 in 1998 and 51 in 2000

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Why is turnout so low?

• 1. Voter registration appears to be the major
  block to voting
• 2. Too young election did not seem important
  disinterested in candidates inconvenient
• 3. American parties are too weak-nonvoter had no
  contact with party

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Who Votes?

• 1. Education level-as education level increases,
  so does voting
• 2. Race and ethnic background-blacks vote at
  lower rates than whites, women voters exceed that
  of men
• 3. Income and age-those with higher family
  income, higher-status careers, oldermore likely
  to vote
• 18-24 year olds least likely to vote/also over 70

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How serious is nonvoting?

• If people are too lazy to vote, maybe they
  shouldnt
• Some say a serious issue-class bias
• The poor are not represented
• But nonvoters are not more egalitarian or in
  favor of government ownership
• Lower voter turnout could be seen as approval

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Nonvoting continued

• If large nonvoting population were to turnout to
  vote it could shift balance of power
• Need for electoral reform after 2000 election,
  ensure fair voting(machines) accuracy, concerns
  about the media projecting winners before the
  polls close.

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Nonvoters

• Millions of Americans do not vote when elections
  are held.
• Only 50.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots
  in the 2000 presidential election, and only 46.3
  percent of the electorate voted for the members
  of the House of Representatives.
• Voter turnout significantly decreases in off-year
  elections, congressional elections held in years
  when there is no presidential election.

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Why People Do Not Vote

• Some people cannot vote for various reasons, such
  as physical or mental illness, unexpected travel,
  and resident alien citizenship status.
• However, most nonvoters do not vote because
• voting is in some way inconvenient,
• they do not believe that their vote will make a
  difference, or
• they distrust politics and political candidates.

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Voters and Voting Behavior

• Voting is studied more than any other form of
  political participation in the United States. We
  learn about voting behavior from
• The results of electionsinformation can be
  gleaned by studying the results of confidential
  voting compared to the population make-up of a
  particular sector
• The field of survey researchdata can be gathered
  by conducting polls across specific cross
  sections of the population, as the Gallup
  Organization does
• Studies of political socializationstudying
  political socialization, the process by which
  people gain their political attitudes and
  opinions, can also be useful in predicting voting
  behavior

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Sociological Factors
Voter preferences cant be predicted by just one
sociological factor. Voter opinion is a
combination of all of these factors and more.
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Psychological Factors
Voters perceptions of their party, the
candidates, and the issues significantly affects
their voting.

• Candidates and Issues
• Candidates and issues are two short-term factors
  that can influence even the most loyal Democrat
  or Republican.
• People may vote out of their chosen party if
  they dislike a candidate or the partys stand on
  a particular issue.

• Party Identification
• The loyalty of people to a particular political
  party is a lasting predictor of how a person will
  vote.

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Voting Choices

• Voting on the Basis of Party
• Voting on the Basis of Candidates
• Voting on the Basis of Issues

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Voting Based on Party

• Party Identification-affiliation with a party,
  longstanding loyalty
• Even increase in independents, 2/3 of indep. Are
  in fact partisan in their behavior, reinforcing
  the importance of partisanship
• Party identification more stable than attitudes
  about issues or candidates

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Voting on the basis of candidates

• American electoral politics is in a
  candidate-centered era. Likeable, who looks
  good, who is more personable
• Candidate appeal often on character (Reagan,
  Eisenhower)
• Increasingly, campaigns focus on negative
  elements, attacks on stands on abortion,
  fundraising
• Attacked for dishonesty, trustworthiness

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Voting on basis of issues

• Important but not as central as partisanship and
  candidate appeal
• Why?
• Candidates often conceal real position on issues
• Voting on issues basis presumes a level of
  interest in issues that only a few voters have

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• Retrospective voting more likely than prospective
  voting
• Prospective voting-voting based on what a
  candidate promises if elected
• Retrospective voting- voting based on what a
  candidates past performance or candidates
  partys record of performance

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Voting on Issues continued...

• State of economy often crucial to candidates
  election
• Usually, voters vote against party in power if
  personal finances have worsened
• Democrats focused on issues in 1998 and picked up
  5 seats in House GOP use of impeachment issue
  did not resonate with voters

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The Voting Rights Act of 1965
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African Americans at the Polls
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Nonvoters

• Millions of Americans do not vote when elections
  are held.
• Only 50.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots
  in the 2000 presidential election, and only 46.3
  percent of the electorate voted for the members
  of the House of Representatives.
• Voter turnout significantly decreases in off-year
  elections, congressional elections held in years
  when there is no presidential election.

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Why People Do Not Vote

• Some people cannot vote for various reasons, such
  as physical or mental illness, unexpected travel,
  and resident alien citizenship status.
• However, most nonvoters do not vote because
• voting is in some way inconvenient,
• they do not believe that their vote will make a
  difference, or
• they distrust politics and political candidates.

Chapter 6, Section 4
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Voters and Voting Behavior

• Voting is studied more than any other form of
  political participation in the United States. We
  learn about voting behavior from
• The results of electionsinformation can be
  gleaned by studying the results of confidential
  voting compared to the population make-up of a
  particular sector
• The field of survey researchdata can be gathered
  by conducting polls across specific cross
  sections of the population, as the Gallup
  Organization does
• Studies of political socializationstudying
  political socialization, the process by which
  people gain their political attitudes and
  opinions, can also be useful in predicting voting
  behavior

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The History of Voting Rights

• The Framers of the Constitution purposely left
  the power to set suffrage qualifications to each
  State.
• Suffrage means the right to vote. Franchise is
  another term with the same meaning.
• The electorate is all of the people entitled to
  vote in a given election.
• Initially, the right to vote in America was
  limited to white male property owners.
• Today, the size of the American electorate is
  greater than 200 million people. Nearly all
  citizens at least 18 years of age can qualify to
  vote.

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Chapter 6, Section 1