Overview of the U.S. Weather Research Program

1
Overview of the U.S. Weather Research Program

• John Gaynor
• Director
• Interagency Program Office
• For the NWS and USWRP Seminar Series
• August 20, 2003

2
U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP)
Public expectations for weather forecasting are
rising faster than the current rate of
improvement in weather forecasting technology.

• Purpose Accelerate the rate which weather
  forecasts are improved
• Interagency Initiative
• NOAA, NSF, NASA, DOD (core agencies)
• DOT, EPA, DOE, USDA (participating agencies)
• Focus narrowed to two initial programs
• Improving Precipitation Forecasts
• Forecasting Hurricanes at Landfall
• Full implementation plans for each program have
  been prepared
• Expected result Within five years a noticeable
  increase in the accuracy of forecasts of
  rain/snow, severe weather, and hurricane
  landfall.
• Some examples of general
  goals are

3
Specific USWRP Goals forQuantitative
Precipitation Forecasting

• Provide west coast forecasts as accurate as
  forecasts for the rest of the country
• Increase the skill by two full days of current
  Day-5, Day-6 and Day-7 forecasts
• Increase the skill of Day 2 and Day 3 operational
  numerical weather prediction model QPFs by one
  day
• Provide weather and water forecasts in
  probabilistic terms out to three days
• Increase the skill of the Day 1 operational NWP
  model QPFs by 25

4
Specific USWRP Goals forQuantitative
Precipitation Forecasting (cont.)

• Increase flash-flood warning lead time form 52
  minutes (1998) to 65 minutes (2005).
• Develop and implement a weather research and
  forecast community model.
• Achieve the optimal mix of observing and data
  processing systems to support the NWS mission.
• Decrease by 50 the time necessary to incorporate
  new satellite data sets into an operational
  assimilation system.
• Incorporate Doppler radar data into operational
  mesoscale models.

5
½ inch
1 inch
2 inches
6
Specific USWRP Goals forHurricane Landfall

• Reduce landfall/track/intensity forecast errors
  by 20
• Increase warning leadtime to and beyond 24 h with
  95 confidence without increasing the present 3
  to 1 overwarning
• Make skillful (vs. persistence) forecasts of
  gale-and hurricane-force radii out to 48 h with
  95 confidence
• Extend QPF to 3 days and improve skill of day-3
  forecasts to improve inland flooding forecasts

7
(No Transcript)
8
US Weather Research ProgramThe Broad Program

• Technology Transfer
• Provide a smooth path of new technology and
  forecasting techniques into operations
• Emphasis on achieving USWRP goals
• Basic and Applied Research
• A research program to provide the new science and
  technology for tech transfer
• Both short and long-term research strategies for
  addressing the goals

9
USWRPTechnology Transfer

• Transfer is primarily accomplished through four
  components
• Community Models
• Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
• Operational Transition Test Beds
• Joint hurricane test bed
• Developmental Test Center and Operational Test
  Center (for WRF, initially)
• Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• Expert Systems
• Several examples including Auto-Nowcasting
• Education and Training
• COMET

10
USWRPBasic and Applied Research ProgramTwo
Major Foci

• Quantitative Precipitation Program
• Three Components
• Extended range QPF 2-14 Days, global
  (THORPEX)
• Short-term Summer QPF 0-48 hours, mesoscale
• Short-term Winter QPF 0-48 hours, mesoscale
• Hurricane Landfall
• Highly focused program to forecast the landfall
  of hurricanes including
• Track
• Intensity
• QPF

11
USWRP Organization
Interagency Working Group Uccellini, Killeen
Co-Chairs
Interagency Program Office Gaynor, Director
Office of the Lead Scientist Gall, Lead
Scientist Kerschner, Admin. Asst. Fredrick,
Webmaster
Science Steering Committee (Gall)
Workshops (as needed)
Prospectus Development Teams (as needed)
Field Programs (as needed)
12
USWRP Planning Process
1. Conduct a series of Prospectus Development
Teams
2. Use Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) to
identify foci for the program

• Identify research opportunities for improving
  forecasting

Ü Areas where rapid progress is possible, and
Ü Where the impact of improved forecasts is
expected to be large
3. Conduct workshops to refine Science Objectives
of each Focused Component
4. Develop Implementation Plans
5. Implement
Ü Calls for proposals
Ü Field programs
Ü Periodically assess project and adjust program
as needed
Ü Develop test bed centers
13
US Weather Research Program Prospectus
Development Teams (Co-Chairs)
14
USWRP Workshops

• Workshop on the Social and Economic Impacts of
  Weather
• 2-4 April, 1997Boulder, Colorado
• Hurricane Workshop
• 17-20 November, 1997Miami, Florida
• Workshop on Data Assimilation
• 9-12 December, 1997Monterey, California
• Weather Research Needs of the Private Sector
• 28 November-3 December, 2000Palm Springs,
  California
• Warm Season Workshop
• 5-7 March, 2002Boulder, Colorado
• First International THORPEX Workshop
• 18-20 March, 2002Potomac, Maryland

15
Current Direct Funding for USWRP

• Rough Estimates
• NSF
• Grants 3.0M
• NCAR 1.5M
• NOAA
• Base 6.5M
• Other 6.0M
• DoD
• AFWA 3M
• NAVY 7M
• NASA 6M
• FAA 1M

16
Hurricane PredictionAn Example

• Hurricane Floyd (1999)
• High resolution model developed at the
• University of Miami
• (Inner grid down to 1.6 km.)

17
(No Transcript)
18
Uncoupled
19
Societal and Economic Impacts of Extreme
Weather (The focus of THORPEX)
20
Tropical Cyclone 9 November 2002
India
T.C.
QUIKSCAT Surface Winds (knots)
21
Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone 10 November
2002 200 fisherman lost at sea
22
US Tornado Outbreak 11 November 2002
23
(No Transcript)
24
(No Transcript)
25
(No Transcript)
26
13 November 2002 Oil Tanker
Spain
Spain
Spain
Dundee Satellite Station
27
QUIKSCAT Surface Winds 13 November 2002
Tanker
28
Oil Tanker Disaster
13-19 November 2002
29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31
Swiss - Italian Flooding
MeteoSat 0000 UTC 16 November 2002
32
Eastern Switzerland 17 November 2002

33
(No Transcript)
34
(No Transcript)
35
Eastern US - Canadian Snow and Ice Storm
16 November 2002
36
(No Transcript)
37
Austrian-German Alpine Wind Storm
16-17 November 2002
38
(No Transcript)
39
(No Transcript)
40
NASA space shuttle Endeavor and crew prepare for
liftoff 23 November 2002
Spanish-born, U.S. astronaut Michael
Lopez-Alegria, right, waves as he leaves the
Operations and Checkout Building at Kennedy Space
Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Saturday
afternoon with fellow crew members, John
Herrington, left, the first tribal registered
American-Indian astronaut, and Don Pettit,
center, for a trip to launch pad 39-A for a
planned liftoff onboard the space shuttle
Endeavour. (AP Photo)
41
Rain in Spain creates liftoff pain
NASA fueled space shuttle Endeavor
for liftoff Saturday, but storms in
Spain loomed as a possible show stopper
again.
42
Moroccan Flood 0600 UTC 25 November 2002
43
Flooding in Morocco 25 November 2002
44
Italian alps 26 Nov 2002
Dundee Satellite Image
45
Lago Maggiore, Italian Alps 26 November 2002
46
Dike Break 26 November 2002
47
Northern Italy 28 November 2002
48
Time/Long. Diagram 250-mb Meridional Wind (m
s-1) Latitude Belt ( 35-60 N)
6-28 November 2002
Cyclogenesis
India/T.C.
Tornadoes
Cyclogenesis
Oil Tanker
Alps Flood/Wind
Snow/Ice Storm
Cyclogenesis
Cold-Air
Cyclogenesis
Shuttle Launch Delay
Moroccan Flood
Cold-Air
Alps flood




UK
Japan
UK
Cal.
49
1
50
1
51
1
52

2
1

53

1


2
54
4
1
2
3
55
2
4
1
3
56
4
3
2
1
57
4
1
2
58
2
3
4
59
2
4
3
60

2
2
3
4
1
3
1
61
2
4
1
2

4
1
3

3
62
3
2
4
63
3
2
4
64
3
65
4
4
3
3
66
3
4
4
67
3
4
68
3
4
69
3
4
70

• Inter-Annual and Intra-Seasonal Influences
• North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• Pacific North American (PNA) Index
• Madden-Julien Oscillation (MJO)
• El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

71
uswrp.org