Curtailment A Solution to Peak Oil

1
Curtailment A Solution to Peak Oil

• Presented
• by
• Pat Murphy,
• Executive Director,
• The Community Solution
• A Program of Community Service, Inc.
• Yellow Springs, OH 45387

2
Conservation Efficiency vs. Curtailment

• Efficiency Simply means better machines
• Technology provides efficiency commitment to
  science above all
  
• Machines will be redesigned for efficiency, easy
  repair and longevity
  
• New machines will always be built but must be
  low energy
  
• Big, and likely, mistake is to bet on
  breakthrough technology
  
• Hydrogen and Fuel Cell
• Curtailment less demand means fewer machines
  that are used less
  
• Culture provides curtailment a commitment to
  sustainability
  

3
Conservation Alternatives Better Machines

• Insufficient potential - Law of Diminishing
  Returns
  
• 2 4 per year?
•  
• Exciting new products somewhat mundane
• Geo Heat Pump - Fuel Cell
• Much technology is novelty Palm Pilots, DVDs

4
Curtailment Considerations

• Curtailment Lowers Demand
• Change thermostat - Open window
• Bicycle and walk
• Turn off lights
• Reduce size of meals, houses, cars
• Contrary to American Way of Life
• A way of burning Only a recent (1950) way of
  life
  
• Curtailment fits earlier values Prudence,
  Thriftiness
  
• May feel like a death sentence
• Life is not worth living, possessions define
  self
  
• Only rational and moral way
• Consider legacy of nuclear waste, buried CO2
  anddepleted resources to our children and
  grandchildren
  

5
The Sane Option Curtailment

• Implies a radical transformation of society
• From High Technology to Intermediate Technology
• From Industrial to Sustainable
•  
• From Machines to Tools
• Models exist today in the 3rd world 82 of
  world population
  
• Considering Cuba and Kerala
• US has experience
• Intentional Communities, Amish, Organic farming
  

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Key Curtailment Categories

• Food
• Housing
• Transportation
• Industrial machines will curtail with consumer
  curtailment

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World Food and Energy Change 1900 - 2000

• Cultivated area increased by 1/3
• Harvest of edible crops increased by 6 times
• Fossil fuels and electricity use increased by
  150 times ! !
  
• People per cropland hectare increased by 2.7
  times
  
• World Population increased by 3.8 times
• Energy at the Crossroads, Vacliv Smil, 2003

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Food Systems Old and New
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Reducing Food Energy by 4 to 1

• Reduce frozen and packaged foods consumption
• Reduce food shipment distance from 1300 to miles
  
• Eat 25 less and improve health
• Eat organic food eliminate fossil fuel
  pesticides/herbicides
  

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7 Deadly Myths of Industrial Agriculture

• Industrial agriculture will feed the world
• Industrial food is safe, healthy, and nutritious
  
  
• Industrial food is cheap
• Industrial agriculture is efficient
• Industrial food offers more choices
• Industrial agriculture benefits the environment
  and wildlife
  
• Biotechnology will solve the problems of
  industrial agriculture
  

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Organic vs. Industrial Agriculture

• This is the fundamental choice
• Replace fossil fuels with labor
• Increase diversity

12
Shelter Current and Future
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Reducing Shelter Energy by 4 to 1

• Decrease size (from 2400 sq ft to 1000 sq ft)
  1950 size
  
• Increase wall/roof thickness (from 2x4 walls to
  2x8 walls)
  
• Change temperature range (from 70 to 60
  (winter))
  
• Reduce number/size of windows (from 12 to 6
  floor area)
  
• Replace incandescent lighting with fluorescent
  lighting
  
• Use energy efficient appliances (minimum 2 to 1
  improvement)
  

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Basic Shelter Design Thick Shells
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Basic Shelter Design Insulation

• All this has been known for decades
• Insulation is the highest EROEI of anything

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McMansion

• 5000-6000 sq feet
• 800,000
• Average new home in US 2400 sq. ft.

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Habitat for Humanity Typical Home

• Less than 1000 sq feet
• 46,000
• Average small home in the world 500 sq ft.

18
Transportation Current and Future

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Reducing Car Energy by 10 to 1

• Make them smaller and lighter (from 20 mpg to 80
  mpg)
  
• Lower frequency of use (from 11,000 to 5,000
  miles per year)
  
• Drive slower (from 70 mph to 45 mph)
• Give up solitary driving (from 1.3 to 2.6
  passengers per trip)
  
• Emphasize public transportation over private
  cars
  

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Honda Insight

• 68 mpg
• Available since 1999

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DaimlerChrysler Smart Car

• Its not technology its culture
• 69 mpg

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Volkswagen Lupo

• 1999 78 mpg

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Volkswagen Research Model

• Top speed under 70 mph
• 8 horsepower
• 235 miles per gallon

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Two Different World Views

• Hummer mileage - 10mpg
• Insight mileage - 68 mpg

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Hummer Outsells All Hybrids

• Cars are not technical issues
• They substitute for other values
• Obviously Hummer a huge threat to an Insight
  driver

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Curtailment and Character

• Its not a survival or suffering issue
• Cuba uses 1/20 energy per person
• Same life span as US, same work hours
• Its giving up some comfort and some convenience
• But these are rights who are we without
  these?
  
• Are we anyone without more convenience and
  goods?
  
• Its giving up possessions and the prestige that
  goes with them
  
• Its giving up being 1
• Requires a radical change in our value system

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Curtailment, Energy, and Technology

• Theres no new technology to save us
• Technology has caused the problem !!!!
• High technology is Machines that burn lots of
  fossil fuels
  
• Energy is power and power can be corrupting
• High energy usage and good character dont go
  together
  
• US (major energy user) looks more imperialistic
  daily
  
• Intermediate technology means more tools and
  fewer machines
  
• Intermediate technology is more empowering for
  people
  
• Most workers are not high tech programmers and
  engineers
  
• Most workers now live in fear of high-tech that
  eliminates jobs
  

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Curtailment Summary

• Extremely difficult consider US success with
  diets
  
• Benefits to slimming down health, sex appeal,
  money
  
• Consumptive mind set is well established at an
  early age
  
• Consumption is the American reason for existence
• Very difficult with existing media
• Media exists to sell products, not inform or
  educate
  
• Media is extremely powerful and addictive
• There is great personal satisfaction in living
  frugally
  
• Self respect
• Caring for the future progeny
• Curtailment will require new learning and new
  practices

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Remember Albert Einstein

• "We can't solve problems by using the same kind
  of thinking we used when we created them."
  
• "The release of atom power has changed everything
  except our way of thinkingthe solution to this
  problem lies in the heart of mankind."
  
• You cannot love a car the way you love a horse.
  The horse brings out human feelings the way
  machines cannot do. . Machines make our life
  impersonal and stultify certain elements in us
  and create an impersonal environment.
• I believe that the horrifying deterioration in
  the ethical conduct of people today stems from
  the mechanization and dehumanization of our lives
  the disastrous by-product of the scientific and
  technical mentality.