Vision for Marine and Coastal Services Digital Products

1
Vision for Marine and Coastal Services Digital
Products

• Jamie Vavra
• Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch
• Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services

March 2003
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Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch
(W/OS21) Responsibilities

• Manage Products and Services for
• Marine Program
• Ocean Prediction Center
• Tropical Prediction Center - Tropical Analysis
  Forecast Branch
• Weather Forecast Offices
• Tropical Cyclone Program
• Tropical Prediction Center
• Central Pacific Hurricane Center
• Weather Forecast Offices
• Coastal and Great Lakes Programs
• Weather Forecast Offices

3
Marine and Coastal Weather Service Vision for
Digital Products

• Provide weather elements we now describe in text
  format in gridded and graphical formats
• Extend from current deterministic approach for
  products to increase availability of gridded and
  graphical probabilistic forecasts
• Provide seamless product suites from WFOs and
  National Centers
• Extend product suite to include gridded and
  graphical threat outlooks for Marine, Coastal and
  Tropical hazards

4
Initial Marine NDFD Elements

• Marine Weather Elements
• Wave Height Significant Wave Height
• Prepared experimentally for Operational Readiness
  Demonstration (June, 2003)
• General Weather Elements prepared over Marine
  Zones
• Coastal Waters
• Nearshore
• Open Lake
• Offshore (WFOs Honolulu, HI and Anchorage, AK)
• Surface Wind Direction and Speed (10 meters)
  June, 2003
• Weather, April 2003

5
Forecast Winds and Waves for Coastal Waters Zones
WFO Portland,OR
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Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD
Elements

• Marine Elements
• Visibility
• Swell Height and Direction
• Wave Steepness
• Wave Period and Direction
• Ice Coverage
• Ice Accretion
• Additional General Weather Elements over Marine
  Zones
• Wind Gusts
• Air Temperature ?

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Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD
Elements (continued)

• Grids from National Centers with Marine and
  Tropical Responsibility ---
• WFOs use in IFPS to initialize grids over
  Coastal Waters Zones

Significant Wave Height
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Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD
Elements (continued)

• Extend spatial
• domain for NDFD
• To provide marine elements from the
  National Centers with Marine and Tropical
  Responsibility over Offshore and High Seas Zones

Wind and Wave Forecasts
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Proposed Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements
(continued)

• Use TPC generated Gridded TCM to initialize wind
  grids in IFPS during 2003 Tropical Cyclone Season
• Initial capabilities included in IFPS 13

10
Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD
Elements (continued)

• Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Wind Grids
• Forecast probability of 34, 50, 64 knot winds
• Use in IFPS for guidance to WFOs and make
  available in NDFD
• Example depicted is 72 hour forecast from
  Hurricane Lili historical case

TPC Proposed Future Product
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Proposed Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements
(continued)

• Threat Outlooks for Tropical Cyclone Hazards such
  as
• Waves
• Surge
• Tornados
• Flash Flood
• Wind
• Threat Outlooks for Marine Hazardous Weather such
  as
• Waterspouts
• Rip Currents

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Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD
Elements (continued)

• Ice Coverage Grid
• Expressed in
• Available in IFPS 14
• Guidance from National Ice Center will not
  initially be available in IFPS
• Plan to add as AWIPS requirement for OB4 time
  frame (2004)

National Ice Center Analysis
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Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD
Elements (continued)

• Role of Marine and Coastal Weather Services
  Branch
• Define NDFD marine and tropical weather elements
• Prepare requirement documents for new datasets
  and capabilities on AWIPS to support new elements
• Set timelines for implementation of new marine
  elements and general weather elements over Marine
  Zones
• In coordination with Regional Marine and Tropical
  Focal Points and NDFD IWT
• If you feel strongly about implementation of
  specific elements, contact
• Jamie Vavra, Marine and Coastal Weather Services
  Branch
• Regional Marine and Tropical Focal Points

14
Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD
Elements (continued)

• Future Marine elements and General Weather
  Elements over Marine Zones
• Before committing to making additional elements
  operationally available via NDFD we need to think
  about
• Which marine and tropical elements do our
  customers need?
• What guidance is needed on AWIPS to prepare
  additional grids over the marine zones?
• Which elements that are difficult to forecast
  with high skill can be expressed
  probabilistically?
• How can we best validate gridded forecasts over
  the marine zones given existing sparse marine
  observational network?

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Forecasts for Open Lakes Zones

• New Shapefiles for Great Lakes
• Geographic Divisions definitions set in
  coordination with WFOs and Regional Marine Focal
  Points
• Prepared for use in IFPS - expected in April 2003

New Shapefile for Lake Superior
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Forecast Winds and Waves for Nearshore and Open
Lakes Zones
Issue Preparation of Marine Grids over
Canadian AOR ----OS21 will coordinate with
Environment Canada
Lake Superior Forecast by WFO Marquette, MI
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Marine and Coastal Services Contacts

• For additional information on our products and
  services visit our Internet pages
• Marine and Coastal Services
• http//weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm
• Ocean Prediction Center
• http//www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/
• Tropical Prediction Center
• http//www.nhc.noaa.gov/
• We welcome your feedback on our plans for new
  Marine, Coastal and Tropical Products
• Send comments and questions to
• Jamie.Vavra_at_noaa.gov
• 301-713-1677 x 111