Can China Afford to Continue Its OneChild Policy

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Can China Afford to Continue Its One-Child Policy?

• Liu Jing (Rosemary)

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History Of One-child Policy

• Chinas one-child-per-couple fertility policy
  implemented in 1980
• Launched as an emergency measure to slow
  population growth at the start of Chinese
  economic reforms
• Largest and most extreme social experiment in
  population growth control in world history

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History Of One-child Policy
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Chinas multipolicy fertility regime

• First category Strictly under one-child policy
  (35)
• Second category 1.5 Children policy (54)
• Third category allow a second or even a third
  child (11)
• Total nearly 2/3 Chinese couples are under the
  jurisdiction of the one-child policy

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Benefit of one-child policy

• Without the policy, fertility would have been
  high or at least would not have declined to the
  current low level
• Cutting population to an all time low and
  contributing of dramatic economic development
• It helps chinas hope for quickly raising per
  capita income

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High costs

• Rapid increase in population aging
• -Chinas aging process will continue to
  accelerate

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High costs

• Escalating imbalanced sex ratio
• 1.Due to Gender-specific fertility policy that
  permits rural couples with a firstborn daughter
  to have a second child and first preference of
  having a son
• 2. Inaccurate censuses and surveys some girls
  are uncounted or missing because they are
  hidden by their parents
• 3.By 1982, infant mortality rate for females was
  lower than for males. However, in 1990 and 2000,
  the pattern was reversed

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High cost

• Political costs
• 1.Government budget allocation to birth control
  programs increased 3.6 times in the 1990s alone,
  from 1.34 billion yuan in 1990 to 4.82 billion in
  1998--a rate of increase faster than for economic
  construction
• 2. An army of birth control officials
• China had about 60,000 full-time personnel
  working on birth control. By 1995, this number
  rose to over 400,000
• --it represents only a portion of the
  organizational resources devoted to birth control
  

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Time to change ?
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(No Transcript)
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Conditions for change

• Low fertility
• A new economic environment
• Relieve the governments burden of funding
• A strong and persistent preference for two
  children
• Future prediction labor shortage problem

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Own opinions

• Aging problem
• Economic environment
• Social welfare

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Thank you !