MoSeS Introduction and Progress Report

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MoSeSIntroduction and Progress Report

• Andy Turner
• http//www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner

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Outline

• What is MoSeS
• What are we looking to do
• How far have we got
• What next

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What is MoSeS

• Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science
• NCeSS Node
• Mark Birkin (Geography)
• Haibo Chen (Transport)
• Martin Clarke (Geography)
• Justin Keen (Health)
• Jie Xu (Computing)
• Phil Rees (Geography)

• Paul Townend (Computing)
• Andy Turner (Geography)
• Belinda Wu (Geography)

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Vision

• Develop means of generating, storing and
  disseminating urban and regional simulations
  based on national level models
• Use simulations tools to support research and
  policy applications
• What if?
• Develop demonstrator applications for
• Health
• Service Planning
• Business
• Pensions
• Property prices
• Transport

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• Model and simulate the evolution of the UK human
  population
• Contemporary planning focus
• Concentrate on the period 2001-2031
• Operating at individual and household level
• Aggregating to community and larger regions
• Open source
• Grid Technology
• Window into modelling everything
• Complexity added over time
• Develop a dynamic geographic agent based
  micro-simulation of the UK
• SimCity for real

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• Develop an Agent Based Model
• Agents to represent
• Individual people
• Family, household and social networks
• Reasonably complex and evolutionary
  characteristics and behaviour
• Households
• Communities
• Business
• Education
• Schools
• Colleges

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Key Challenges

• Designing and developing standards compliant
  tools in an open way
• Developing generic and modular solutions
• Complex systems modelling
• Visualisation
• Collaboration
• Developing applications and use cases
• Data security and disclosure risk
• Develop a portal for users and developers

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Demographic Modelling

• There are approximately
• 60 million people in the UK
• 20 million households and communal establishments
• 200,000 UK Population 2001 Census Output Areas
• Data
• Census micro-data
• UK 3 Individual SAR
• 1 Household SAR for England and Wales
• Census Area Statistics

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• Initialisation (2001)
• Sets of SARs used to populate Households and
  Communal Establishments
• Genetic Algorithm
• Constraints and optimisations
• Large number of potential solutions
• Each Census Area or aggregation can be
  concurrently processed
• Dynamic Simulation (2001-2031)
• Annual basis
• Birth, Death and Migration

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Progress

• Population initialisation
• Datasets for demographic simulation produced for
  Leeds and UK
• MSOA vs OA
• HSAR vs ISAR for household population
• Sampling without replacement
• Dynamic simulation model
• Birth and death modules written
• Difficulties with migration module
• Portal development set up