Ammonia Emission from Danish Agriculture National Environmental Research Institute Mette Hjorth Mikk

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Ammonia Emission from Danish Agriculture---Nati
onal Environmental Research InstituteMette
Hjorth Mikkelsen

• Danish Agriculture 1985 to 2005
• Danish ammonia projection until 2025
• Comparison with IIASAs RAINS model

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Danish Agriculture 1985 to 2005
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43,000 quare kilometres 5.4 million inhabitants
Sweden
NERI
Jutland
Copenhagen
Sealand
Funen
Germany
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Livestock production 1985-2005

• Number of farms decreased from 92,000 to 48,000
• Average farm size is increased from 31 to 53
  hectare

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Increase in agricultural production intensityand
more specialised production

• Pressure on the environment
• - nutrient pollution of the
• aquatic environment
• - ammonia emission and
• deposition of nitrogen.
• - change in vulnerable nature
• types as a consequence of
• increasing nitrogen deposition

Action plan to promote sustainable agricultural
production
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Environmental action plans from 1985-2006
Main objectives - reduction of the nitrogen to
the aquatic environment and vulnerable areas -
reduction of ammonia emission.
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Results of the environmental action
plans1985-2005

• Reduce of nitrogen loss per produced animal

• The nitrogen leaching to the aquatic
  environment
• has decreased by 50
• The ammonia emission has fallen by 30
• Use of mineral fertiliser has decreased by 50

• Improved utilisation of nitrogen in manure
• 1. change in manure handling
• 2. genetic development
• 3. feed optimization

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Danish ammonia projection 2005 - 2025
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Projection of the Danish ammonia emissions from
2005 until 2025

• Project finansed by the Danish EPA
• performed by NERI
• six institutions are represented in steering
  committee
• - all involved in agricultural issues

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Expert knowledge from Steering Comittee

• NERI
• National Environmental Research Institute
• data collecting and reporting

• Danish Agricultural
• Advisory Centre
• - contact to farmer
• knowledge on
• agricultural practice
• stable type
• handling of manure

• Danish Institute of
• Agricultural Science
• feed conditions
• - N-excretion
• milk yield
• emission factor stable,
• storages and application
• of manure

• Institute of Food and
• Resource Economics
• economic conditions
• - export possibilities
• market conditions

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Contribution sources

• Agriculture contributes by 96 of total ammonia
  emission

• Predictions on livestock production is the main
  challenge in working with projection for ammonia.

• EU agricultural policy?
• export market?
• technology development?
• legislation?
• farmers handling?

The total ammonia emission 2005
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Assumptions (general) - the projection includes

• - all planned measures in Danish actionplans
• - Danish draft regulation on authorisation of
  animal production
• - CAP Reform

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Assumptions (details)

• Technology
• slurry acidification (202526 pigs), cleaning
  of air outlet (202550 pigs), slurry separation,
  manure burning and biogas plants (20105.2 PJ).
• - Reduce the emission factor in stable, storage
  and in relation to application of manure.
• Feed efficacy
• The average feeding efficacy in 2015 correspond
  to the 25 best farms in 2005
• Livestock production
• Dairy cattle decrease as a result of rising
  milk yield (2025 11,100 l/cow/yr)
• Slaughtering pigs the last 3 years shows a
  stagnation in the production.
• A lower increase rate is expected (0.8 per year
  2005-2020)
• N-excretion
• Dairy cattle increase due to rising milk yield
  (2025 150 kg N/cow/yr)
• Slaughtering pigs decrease due to improvements
  of feed efficacy (2025 2.6 kg N/prod. pig/yr)
• Application of manure

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Result of the ammonia projection
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Criteria for a succesfull projection

• Expert knowledge should be present in the
  steering committee
• - farmer practices in general
• - causes for changes in farmer practices
• - potential for technology development
• - demand-supply models
• - expected development in livestock production
• Input data
• - available data
• - reliable data
• Focus on the most important emission sources

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Comparison with IIASAAs RAINS model
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The thematic strategy on air pollution
The thematic strategy draws up targets for
reductions of different compounds which has to be
met by 2020 (SO2, NOx,NMVOC, NH3 and
PM2.5). The benefit of emission reductions is
expressed by number of gained years within all of
EU is obtained at the least possible costs.

• The RAINS model developed by IISA is used to
  estimate
• Thematic Strategy scenario
• Base line scenario

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Ammonia emission 2020
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Measures to reduce the ammonia emission by 16 kt
in 2020

• - changes in application of manure
• - cowering of slurry tanks
• - change in stable type for poultry
• - less use of urea as fertiliser

For a Danish point of view the reduction
potential for these measures in future is not
very high. Other technologies has to be taken
into account to reflect the Danish conditions.
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Conclusive Remark

• RAINS modelling
• - can be difficult for member states to
  understand the assumptions and calculations

• Inconsistency between RAINS and national
  projection
• - more attention and discussion with member
  states
• Consistency between RAINS and national projection
  
• - can be a result of other factors than assumed
  in RAINS

• It is important that the member states work out
  projections
• - to sure the framework of the revised emission
  ceiling