Trends in Air Pollutant Emissions in Europe and Asia

1
Trends in Air Pollutant Emissions in Europe and
Asia
J. Cofala, Z. Klimont, A. Chambers, P. Purohit,
P. Rafaj
2
Overview

• GAINS emission trends for comparison with remote
  sensing observations
• Changes in emissions of SO2, NOx, PM 2.5 and VOC
  between 1995 2010 in Europe, China and India
• Comparison of current Asian emissions with
  previous IIASA studies
• Ambient concentrations of PM 2.5 and ozone for
  Asia

3
Data sources

• GAINS EUROPE
• Bilateral consultations with EU Member States
• Meetings with experts from Russia and Ukraine
• GAINS ASIA
• China Tsinghua University (emission inventories
  and control strategies) Energy Research
  Institute (projections of activity levels)
• India emission inventories and projections TERI

4
Change in European Emissions of air pollutants
from 1995 to 2010
5
Change in SO2 emission structure in Europe
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
6
Change in NOx emission structure in Europe
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
7
Europe SO2 in 2000 - GAINS vs. national
inventories
8
Change in Emissions of air pollutants in China
and India
9
Evolution of Chinese NMVOC emissionsWei Wei et
al., in preparation
10
Structure of SO2 emissions
China
India
11
Structure of NOx emissions
China
India
12
Comparison of historic emissions China (Million
tons)
13
Comparison of historic emissions India (Million
tons)
14
PM 2.5 concentrations China
2005
2000
15
PM 2.5 concentrations India
2005
2000
16
Ozone SOMO35 in India
2005
2000
17
Summary and conclusions (1)

• Since early 1990s emissions of air pollutants in
  Europe importantly declined
• GAINS data for Europe consistent with national
  sources
• Despite of legislative efforts, emissions in
  China and India continue to increase
• Uncertainty of emission estimates in China and
  India still quite high

18
Summary and conclusions (2)

• In Europe uncertainty of emission estimates
  reduced in the course of policy process
• Involvement of stakeholders and modeling groups
  in Europe was essential
• Similar process in Asia is still in an initial
  stage and needs to be intensified

19

• Model available from
• http//www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/apd/gains/index.ht
  ml