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From optimism to pesismism

• Opening years of 21th century full of terrifying
  events
• Mass media sometimes turn our society into
  startled rabbits
• or intolerant individuals avid for compensation
• instead of contributing to the development of a
   risk culture 

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A risk culturea challenge

• When facing these risks
• scientists seek to perfect rational risk
  assessment techniques
• but often fail
• decision makers fear court of law and liability
• hide themselves
• or use cautionary principle restrictively

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Plan

• Emerging hazards identification
• Assessment of emerging risk and actions
• Emergence of risk attitude
• Conclusions

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 Emerging risk is often an abusive term 

• Let us first
• identify  hazards 
• through
• Lookout / Research

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Lookout

• To take place in a wide ranging context
• with  watchers  from
• different specialties
• various involved parties
• at different levels

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Lookout

• to detect weak signals and the context where they
  appear
• from watchtower (far away, in advance)
• in the field (accurate reporting)

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Research

• Metrology through various sensors
• related to the origin of hazards (pollutants,
  germs, behaviour)
• related to the effects on potential victims (man,
  environment, property)
• Quantification of  cause-effect  /
   dose-effect  relationship

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Research

• Cause ------- effect
• Dose ------- effect
• Simple
• One cause ------- one target
• Complex
• Multicauses ------- multitargets

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Research

• Experimental (scale ?)
• complexity
• experience plans
• statistical processing
• Models
• growth in efficiency, complexity (physical,
  chemical, biological)
• Observations in the field
• data collection
• data processing
•  Uncertainty ? 

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A hazard is qualified  emerging ...

• when a break is identified in the spatial
  continuity (emergence from background noise)
• when a break is identified in the timeline
  (break in the trend of evolution)

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Assessing emerging risks

• When emerging hazard is identified and relations
  cause ------- effects are known
• Transition to risk needs to know
• frequency of appearance
• exposure of potential targets
• seriousness of impact and vulnerability of target

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Assessing emerging risks

• Assessment by experts including
• cross effects
• domino effects
• implying a systemic approach
• Assessment must include a deliberative process
  with stake holders

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A risk is qualified  emerging ...

• when impacts seriousness and target
  vulnerability are high
• when uncertainty about possible effects and
  extensivity is important
• (destruction ------- destructuration)
• when usual risk management methods are
  unadequate

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React in front of emerging
risks

• Cautionary principle
• using it as an action principle setting intensive
  supervision and taking conservating measures
  proportional to the stakes

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React in front of emerging
risks

• Action after a cost/benefits investigation
• Actions with full results transparency and
  adequate communication
• Actions results to be integrated in a knowledge
  data bank
• Actions to reduce targets vulnerability
  (redondancy principle, diversity principle)
• Actions to be decided and implemented by all
  parties involved

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React in front of emerging
risks

• And adequately mind
• the boomerang effects
• oversized preventive or curative actions
• actions that may bring unwanted effects

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Towards a risk attitude

• Public is more and more concerned, according to
  surveys
• Distrust of public towards industrialists,
  politicians and even scientists
• Intolerance of individuals seeking compensation
• when a collaborative and responsible attitude is
  expected

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In front of emerging risk a collaborative and
multidisciplinary approach is needed

• scientists ------- models
• experts ------- data
• stake holders ------- targeted objective 
• public authorities ------- rules and standards
• moral authorities ------- ethics
•  Cindynic approach 

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In front of emerging risk a responsible
approach is needed

• Are we aware of the risks around the places where
  we work and live?
• Do we comply with regulations or at least do we
  have a positive critical attitude?
• Do we accept to pay (directly or through
  insurance) or do we just try to transfer
  liability and compensations to others?
• Are we just critical towards politicians and
  elected bodies or do we accept to participate to
  democratic debate?
• Are we amplifiers of non controlled information
  or do we collaborate to promote a responsible
  attitude?

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A responsible and civic attitude is a challenge

• For our society Need to work together for
  public interest
• For us as individuals tendency to search for
  individual comfort and well being

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From joke to seriousness

• Facts October 13 at night, 60 km East of Paris
• a private pilot steals a small aeroplane
• he flies round over a small city. Police is
  informed
• air traffic security sends a helicopter
• aeroplane intercepted and forced to land at
  international airport
• pilot arrested by air police escaped before civil
  police arrives

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From joke to seriousness

• Public opinion
• He was drunk or drug dependent as, for normal
  people, it does not work so our rules are so
  well done...
• Emerging hazards of the sort, less spectacular,
  happen everyday
• A risk attitude watch, react, feed back
  experience and be involved in the follow up

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An emerging civic, collaborative and responsible
attitude

• An emerging risk also a chance, an opportunity.
• (technology, economy, social progress)
• Thank you for attention