P1246341505yHzZs

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AET 7410 Alternate Fuels - Choices and
Opportunities John R. Wilson Ph.D. TMG Energy
C/O NextEnergy Center461 Burroughs, Detroit, MI
48202 Phone [phone] X260 Fax (313)
833-0101 519-562-5758 (mobile) Emails
tmg_at_tmgtech.com
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ALTERNATIVE FUELSAET 7410 - 1

• WHAT WILL THE COURSE COVER?
• REASONS TO USE ALTERNATE FUELS
• SOURCES SUPPLIES OF CURRENT FUELS
• DEFICIENCIES IN CURRENT FUELS
• FUELS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
• FUELS AND YOUR WALLET
• FUEL BLENDS OF INTEREST
• SPECIAL POWERTRAINS, SPECIAL USES
• 3 OUTLOOKS 08-15, 15-25 AND 25-50

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THE COURSE TEXTBOOK IS

• ENERGIZING OUR FUTURE
• JOHN WILSON AND GRIFFIN BURGH
• JOHN WILEY AND SONS,
• JANUARY 2008
• AVAILABLE FROM THE WSU BOOKSTORE OR FROM
  Amazon.com, BarnesNoble.com, and the usual
  suspects
• It will be supplemented by handouts

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ALTERNATIVE FUELSAET 7410 - 2

• ALTERNATE FUELS COVERED
• NATURAL GAS
• HYDROGEN MOSTLY SYNTHETIC
• METHANOL MOSTLY SYNTHETIC
• ETHANOL MOSTLY NATURAL
• OTHER FUEL ALCOHOLS (E.G., BUTANOL)
• AMMONIA AND OTHER DUBIOUS CHOICES
• BIODIESEL FROM NATURAL OILS AND FATS
• SYNTHETIC DIESEL AND GASOLINE
• DIMETHYL ETHER, DIETHYL ETHER
• GREEN DIESEL FROM BIOSOURCES

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ALTERNATIVE FUELSAET 7410 - 3

• ALTERNATE ENERGIES COVERED
• NUCLEAR POWER
• SOLAR ENERGY
• PHOTOVOLTAIC, THERMAL, COMBINED
• WIND ENERGY
• HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY
• INCLUDING RIVER FLOWS
• TIDAL ENERGY AND SIMILAR ALTERNATIVES
• STORED ENERGY AND ENERGY STORAGE

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ALTERNATIVE FUELSAET 7410 - 4

• ALTERNATE FUELS CHALLENGES
• U.S USES 140 BN GALS GASOLINE/YEAR
• THATS 425 MILLION METRIC TONS/YEAR
• AND 63 BN GALLONS OF DIESEL FUEL
• ABOUT 220 MILLION METRIC TONS/YEAR
• AND 27 BN GALLONS OF JET FUEL
• ABOUT 90 MILLION METRIC TONS/YEAR
• DISPLACING EVEN 10 OF QUANTITIES THIS LARGE IS A
  MASSIVE CHALLENGE!
• DISPLACING THE 25 TARGETED BY THE CURRENT
  ADMINISTRATION FOR 2020 IS PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE

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ALTERNATIVE FUELSAET 7410 - 5

• ALTERNATE FUELS LIMITATIONS
• THERE WILL HAVE TO BE MULTIPLE SUBSTITUTION
  STRATEGIES
• NOT JUST FUELS BUT ALTERNATE ENERGIES IN
  GENERAL
• FOR PRODUCING ENERGY
• FOR USING ENERGY FOR
• TRANSPORTATION
• FOR POWER GENERATION INDUSTRIAL HEATING
• FOR MANUFACTURING CHEMICALS PLASTICS
• FOR MINERAL AND METAL PROCESSING
• .AND MANY OTHER USES

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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES(OVERVIEW)

• WHAT BENEFITS DO WE BELIEVE WE CAN ACHIEVE WITH
  AET?
• SAVE ENERGYAND ENERGY COSTS?
• FIX CLIMATE CHANGE?
• FIX OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS?
• ACHIEVE ENERGY INDEPENDENCE?
• AVOID RUNNING OUT OF OIL?
• AVOID RUNNING OUT OF NATURAL GAS?
• AND WHAT ABOUT WATER (SEE LATER)?
• RELIEVE POLITICAL PRESSURES?

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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES(OVERVIEW)

• WHAT PROBLEM(S) ARE WE SOLVING?
• DO WE NEED AFs ( OR AETs)?
• OR WILL WE JUST CLEAN UP FOSSIL FUELS AFTER ALL?
• IF WE NEED AETs, WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS?
• CAN WE GET THERE THROUGH BETTER CONSERVATION OR
  EFFICIENCY?
• OR ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAINS (ENGINES)?
• OR ALTERNATIVE FUELS
• E.G., ETHANOL, BIODIESEL PLUS A FEW EXOTICS
• OR WILL OUR COAL, NATURAL GAS, OIL, BE ENOUGH
  AFTER ALL.WITH CO2 CAPTURE?
• THE ANSWERS ARE FAR FROM SIMPLE!

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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES(OVERVIEW)

• WHY DO WE NEED AETs? - 1
• WE HEAR FREQUENT, OFTEN HYSTERICAL CLAIMS THAT WE
  ARE WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF CONVENTIONAL FUELS.
• THE U.S. IS RUNNING OUT THE REST OF THE WORLD
  (INCLUDING CANADA) IS NOT
• BUTWHAT REMAINS IS HARD TO ACCESS AND PRODUCE
• COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER BUT
  UNDULATE
• MANY EQUALLY HYSTERICAL CLAIMS ABOUT ALTERNATE
  FUELS
• WE WILL FOCUS ON THE FACTS
• ARRIVAL AT MOST OF THESE FACTS IS AN EXERCISE IN
  THERMODYNAMICS
• WHICH MOST LIKE TO AVOID!

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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES(OVERVIEW)

• WHY DO WE NEED AETs ? - 2
• CONCERN OVER INCREASING FUEL COSTS IS WORLD-WIDE
• CAN WE FIND LESS EXPENSIVE FUELS?....PROBABLY NOT
• CONCERN OVER FUTURE GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLIES
• ISSUES ARE RELATED MORE TO POLITICS THAN RESERVES
  BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY
• CONCERN OVER U.S. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
• CAN WE MAKE LOW-COST FUELS FROM AN ALTERNATIVE
  RESOURCE THAT IS TRULY DOMESTIC, RENEWABLE, CLEAN
  AND PLENTIFUL?
• WE HAVE TO TAKE ACTION BUT WE ARE CURRENTLY AT
  RISK OF MAKING SOME VERY BAD CHOICES

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 1

• WE WILL NOT RUN OUT OF OIL ANY TIME SOON
• THE MEDIA HAVE TO SELL ADVERTISING SPACE
• AUTHORS HAVE TO SELL BOOKS
• GLOOM-AND-DOOM HYPE HELPS TO ACHIEVE THAT
• WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF CHEAP CONVENTIONAL OIL
• THE EASY-TO-PRODUCE DOMESTIC RESERVES ARE LONG
  GONE, ONLY THE DIFFICULT OIL REMAINS
• BUTTHE QUANTITY OF RECOVERABLE RESERVES IS
  DETERMINED BY THE COST OF RECOVERY
• THE HIGHER THE PRICE, THE GREATER THE AMOUNT
  RECOVERABLE ECONOMICALLY (PROFITABLY) A MOVING
  TARGET
• FOREIGN EASY OIL IS STILL PLENTIFUL
• E.G., IN LIBYA, PRODUCTION COST IS 2/BBL
• COMPARE OIL SANDS AT 25/BBL
• BUT POLITICAL SENSITIVITIES MAKE ACCESS DIFFICULT
• ENERGY WILL REMAIN EXPENSIVE BUT
• MORE UNCONVENTIONAL CAPACITY IS COMING ON LINE

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 2

• THE REAL PROBLEM WE USE TOO MUCH ENERGY
• 5 OF THE WORLDS POPULATION 25 OF THE WORLDS
  ENERGY CONSUMPTION
• 20.7 MILLION BBL OIL/DAY (60 OF WHICH IS
  IMPORTED)
• 1 BBL 42 US GALLONS
• 7.5 BILLION BARRELS/YEAR.
• THE ENTIRE WORLD USES 28 BILLION BBL/YR. AND
  GROWING
• 380 MILLION GALLONS GASOLINE/DAY
• 140 BILLION GALLONS GASOLINE ANNUALLY
• 90 BILLION GALLONS DIESEL FUEL PLUS JET FUEL/YR.
  
• OF THAT, 63 BILLION GALLONS IS DIESEL
• ADD 23 TRILLION CU. FT. (650 BILLION CUBIC
  METERS) OF NATURAL GAS ANNUALLY (ALSO ABOUT 25
  OF WORLD USE)
• AND PRETTY SOON YOURE TALKING REAL ENERGY!

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 3

• THE US HAS A NATURAL GAS PROBLEM
• IT USES 23 TRILLION CU.FT/YEAR, CANADA USES 3.5
  TCF
• OFFICIAL U.S. RESERVES ARE CURRENTLY 187 TCF
• THAT IS ABOUT AN 8-YEAR SUPPLYBUT
• OFFICIAL RESERVES DATA ARE CONSERVATIVE
• MUCH MORE GAS MAY BE COMING FROM THE ALASKA NORTH
  SLOPE AND THE MACKENZIE DELTA (UP TO 200 TCF IN
  TOTAL)
• BUT THOSE PIPELINES NEED 10 YEARS TO APPROVE
  BUILD
• SO WE ARE ALREADY IMPORTING LNG FROM OVERSEAS
• EXPECT SHORTAGES BY ABOUT 2015
• PRICES, WHICH HAVE GONE FROM 2.50 TO 14.00 AND
  BACK TO 7.50 IN 2-3 YEARS WILL REMAIN HIGH
  MIGHT REACH 20/MMBTU BY 2012.
• CANADA IS NO BETTER OFF AND MAY HAVE TO RESTRICT
  EXPORTS TO THE US SOMETIME SOON

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 4

• FORECASTING OIL AND GAS RESERVES
• M. KING HUBBERT CAME UP WITH THE HUBBERT CURVE
• INITIALLY FOR OIL, BUT GAS CURVE IS SIMILAR
• COAL, TOO..
• SINCE THEN, MANY ADDITIONAL CURVES
• CORRECT IN THAT ANY FIXED RESOURCE MUST FOLLOW
  SUCH DECAY CURVES, BUT
• FOR VARIOUS REASONS, THESE HAVE IGNORED THE
  WORLDS RESERVES OF UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS
• THEY HAVE ALSO IGNORED ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY
• THE FORECASTS ARE THUS VERY PESSIMISTIC -
  SUPER-CONSERVATIVE JUST WHAT USGS AND THE SEC
  LIKE!

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 5
?MMB/D
US PEAK, 1978
HUBBERT CURVES
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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 6

• Hubbert (per EIA, 2004) Conventional Oil Only

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 7

• Campbell (2004)

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 8

• THE PROPHESIES OF DOOM START WITH M. KING HUBBERT
  (1956 AND LATER)
• RESERVOIRS VARY WIDELY IN CHARACTER
• SOME HAVE DELIVERED ONLY 10 OF THEIR CONTENTS
• OTHERS, MUCH MORE
• ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY TECHNIQUES CAN DELIVER 2-3X
  ORIGINAL RESERVES ESTIMATES.BUT NOT ALWAYS
• ALL HUBBERT-TYPE PROJECTIONS HAVE IGNORED THE
  WORLDS RESERVES OF UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS
• E.G., OIL SANDS, SHALE OIL, COAL? FUEL LIQUIDS,
• THE FORECASTS ARE THUS VERY PESSIMISTIC -
  SUPER-CONSERVATIVE JUST WHAT USGS AND THE SEC
  LIKE!

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 9

• COAL GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS
• THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE HAVE PLENTY OF COAL
• 4,000 BILLION (4x1012) SHORT (2000 LB) TONS
• 1,000 YEARS SUPPLY AT PRESENT USE RATES
• 1012 SHORT TONS ARE ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE
• CANADA HAS ANOTHER 2,000 ST, 800 RECOVERABLE
• CURRENT PRICES PER MMBTU 0.85-2.50
• COMPARE OIL _at_ 15.00 AND GAS _at_ 8.20 PER MMBTU
• THE BAD NEWS IS THAT COAL PRODUCTION AND USE IS
  COSTLY DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS OVER
• MINE SITE TRANSPORTATION AIR AND WATER
  POLLUTION
• NEED FOR CO2 SEQUESTRATION, PARTICULATES CONTROL,
  ASH DISPOSAL, ETC.
• TOO MANY INEFFICIENT OLD ENERGY CONVERSION
  TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STEAM RAISING AT 35)
• DIRECT CONVERSION ? ELEC. POWER WOULD BE A WINNER!

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 10
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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 11

• THE US MAKES USE OF OTHER ENERGY SOURCES
• NUCLEAR ZERO GROWTH FOR THE LAST 20 YEARS.
  WHY?
• HYDROELECTRIC NO GROWTH POTENTIAL. WHY?
• GEOTHERMAL CA ONLY IN US PLUS NZ, ICELAND,
  OTHERS
• ALTHOUGH HEAT PUMPS ARE OK ALMOST ANYWHERE
• WIND, SOLAR
• VERY SMALL, SLOWLY GROWING (WIND BETTER IN
  EUROPE)
• REMINDER ELECTRICITY IS NOT AN ENERGY SOURCE
  BUT AN ENERGY CARRIER
• SOURCE ENERGY IS NEEDED FOR EFFICIENCY
  CALCULATION
• THE US NEEDS MORE CAPACITY TO PRODUCE, TRANSMIT
  ELECTRICAL POWER AND MORE LOCAL AND REGIONAL GRID
  OFF-GRID DISTRIBUTED POWER GENERATION

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ENERGY RESOURCES NOWSUMMARY 12

• BIOMASS-BASED SOURCES
• CORN ? ETHANOL
• INDUSTRY CURRENTLY IN TROUBLE (1/2008)
• BIOMASS ? BIOETHANOL (NOT YET COMMERCIAL)
• BIODIESEL (FROM SOYBEAN IN US, RAPESEED IN
  EUROPE)
• INDUSTRY CURRENTLY IN TROUBLE (1/2008)
• DIRECT BURNING OR GASIFICATION OF BIOMASS (PAPER
  AND PACKAGING WASTES, WOOD CHIPS, CROP RESIDUES)
• OK FOR HEAT, STEAM
• BIOMASS OR WASTE ? LIQUID FUELS VIA GASIFICATION
  AND SYNTHOL/FISCHER-TROPSCH

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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESNEAR TERM PROSPECTS

• THE WORLD HAS VERY LARGE RESERVES OF
  UNCONVENTIONAL OIL
• MUCH OF IT, FORTUNATELY, IN THE AMERICAS
• CANADIAN OIL SANDS (TAR SANDS) IN ALBERTA
• IN SERIOUS PRODUCTION SINCE ABOUT 1965, NOW ? 1
  BILLION BBL/YR
• COMPARE US CONSUMPTION OF 7.5 BILLION BBL/YR
• US SHALE OIL (PRIMARILY IN COLORADO, UTAH)
• NO COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION YET MAYBE IN 10 YEARS
• VENEZUELAS ORINOCO BELT OIL SANDS
• LIMITED COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION POLITICAL
  FOOTBALL
• THERE IS ALSO UNCONVENTIONAL GAS
• COAL BED METHANE 25 TCF (US) 25 TCF (CAN)
• TIGHT GAS IN ROCK FORMATIONS 118 TCF (US)
  100 TCF (CAN)
• METHANE HYDRATES OR CLATHRATES
• OFFSHORE OR IN PERMAFROST REGIONS OF US, CANADA,
  RUSSIA
• ESTIMATED AMOUNTS ARE HUGE SEE LATER SLIDE
• SYNTHETIC NATURAL GAS FROM COAL, BIOMASS, EVEN OIL

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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESNEAR TERM PROSPECTS

• METHANE HYDRATES
• LOOSE LOW-T OR HIGH-P COMPOUND OF METHANE
  WATER, WELL KNOWN TO GAS PLANT OPERATORS
• FOUND SUB-PERMAFROST OR SUB-SEA, JUST OFFSHORE
• ESTIMATED METHANE HYDRATES IN PLACE WORLD-WIDE
  ARE ENORMOUS
• OCEAN FLOOR 10,000 11,000 Gt(C)
• ONSHORE ARCTIC 400 Gt(C)
• ONSHORE ANTARCTIC UNKNOWN
• NOTE 1 Gt(C) 1.33 BILLION MT OF METHANE AND 1
  MT METHANE 53,361 SCF. THUS JUST 1 Gt(C)
  REPRESENTS A TOTAL OF 71 TCF OF METHANE OR A
  3-YEAR SUPPLY FOR THE U.S.!
• BUT EXPLORATION AND RECOVERY ARE VERY
  CHALLENGING

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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESSYNTHETIC NATURAL GAS

• DEFINED BY DOE AS AN ALTERNATE FUEL (!)
• MANY ALTERNATIVES ONLY COAL GASIFICATION HAS
  REAL PROMISE (AND IS A FAMILIAR, IF OLDER,
  TECHNOLOGY)
• REPLACEMENT OF 23 TRILLION FT3/YEAR WILL REQUIRE
  A MASSIVE INVESTMENT IN ONE OR MORE OF
• METHANE HYDRATES
• COAL GASIFICATION
• THE LATTER IS MORE LIKELY, THE FORMER MORE
  ATTRACTIVE
• SNG IS MORE LIKELY TO GET INDUSTRY INVESTMENT
  THAN H2
• SOME NEW/PROPOSED USES OF NG
• GASOLINE SUBSTITUTE (AS CNG) WIDESPREAD USE,
  ESP. IN WESTERN CANADA
• CLEAN DIESEL FUEL E.G., CUMMINS WESTPORT
• MANUFACTURING HYDROGEN (FOR WHICH NG MAY BE TOO
  VALUABLE AS NG)
• REFORMER FUEL FOR SOFCs (WHICH USE BOTH THE H2
  AND THE CO)
• DIRECT FUEL FOR FUEL CELLS? SOFCs OR MOLTEN
  CARBONATE?

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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESNEAR TERM PROSPECTS

• ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY
• IN ITS SIMPLEST FORM, A WAY TO GET MORE OIL OUT
  OF OLD RESERVOIRS (E.G., CA HEAVY OIL, E. TEXAS)
• A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL
  PRICES AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF OIL RESERVES
• EOR IS EXPENSIVE, JUSTIFIED ONLY IF OIL PRICES
  ARE HIGH TO VERY HIGH AS THEY ARE NOW
• SURFACTANT INJECTION, STEAM DRIVE, WATER
  FLOODING, CO2 FLOODING, STEAM ASSISTED GRAVITY
  DRAINAGE (SAGD), FORMATION HEATING WITH IN-SITU
  COMBUSTORS, MANY OTHER TECHNIQUES (ALL OF THEM
  COSTLY!)
• MANY OLD FIELDS, ONCE SHUT IN, SOME FOR MANY
  YEARS, ARE BEING RE-OPENED

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SUPPLY VS. DEMAND THE OLD HUBBERT CURVE
Motor Vehicle Fuel (BBL/yr) Based on Proven
Reserves
Demand
Short to Mid-Term
Long-Term (The Great Unknown)
Possible Green Technologies
THE GAP
OLD EASY (CHEAP) OIL
Gasoline Diesel from old crude oil
2000
2050
2100
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SUPPLY VS. DEMAND MODIFIED HUBBERT CURVE
Motor Vehicle Fuel (BBL/yr)
Demand
Short to Mid-Term
Long-Term (Still The Great Unknown)
COAL??
Gap filled with 2ndary and tertiary recovery
shale oil oil sands, all at higher cost
Greeen Technologies H2? Nuclear? Renewables Non-
HC energy carriers FC/Electric Hybrid technologies
Gasoline Diesel from crude oil
2000
2050
2100
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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESMID-TERM PROSPECTS
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SOME OF OUR FUTURE ENERGY OPTIONS
CHEMICALS
Hydrogen Synthetic fuels (DME, FT Diesel)
Methanol
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Hydrogen
Electricity
Gasoline RFG
Diesel ULSD
LPG
Natural Gas (CNG, LNG, LPG)
H2CO
F-T Synthesis
Electrolysis
Blending
Fermentation
Trans esterification
Reforming
Gasification
Electricity
Refining
Biomass Wood Black liquor Cellulose Agriculture
waste Forest residue Switch Grass
Vegetable oils Animal fat Soybean Rapeseed Jatroph
a Palm Sunflower
Starch- Sugar- rich Plants corn, manioc sugar
cane beets
Wind Solar Hydro Geo- thermal
Coal
Crude oil
Natural gas Methane Hydrates
Oil sands Shale Oil
Nuclear
FOSSIL
NON-FOSSIL
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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESMID-TERM PROSPECTS

• A FEW BIG SOLUTIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SOLVE
  THE ENTIRE NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY SUPPLY
  PROBLEM. THEY ARE
• COAL
• OIL SANDS
• SHALE OIL
• METHANE HYDRATES
• SOLAR ENERGY (PV AND THERMAL)
• BUT THEY ALL HAVE SEVERE LIMITATIONS. WHAT ARE
  THEY?
• EMISSIONS, COST.OR BOTH
• ANY OTHERS??

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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESMID-TERM PROSPECTS

• THE FOLLOWING OFFER ONLY PARTIAL SOLUTIONS
• HYDROGEN
• NOT AN ENERGY SOURCE, MUST BE MADE FROM ONE IN A
  COMPLEX, ENERGY-CONSUMING PROCESS
• MANUFACTURE, TRANSPORTATION, DELIVERY AND USE TOO
  ENERGY-INTENSIVE IN TOTAL NO INFRA-STRUCTURE
• REALISTICALLY, USE IS LIMITED TO FUEL CELLS
• PROPOSED FUEL FOR IC ENGINES (BMW, FORD) CAN
  ALSO BE CO-INJECTED FOR EMISSIONS (SMOKE) CONTROL
  IN DIESELS EFFECTIVE BUT COSTLY
• NO BUSINESS CASE FOR IT NOW - POSSIBLE THERE WILL
  BE AFTER OTHER OPTIONS HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED IN
  ABOUT 2050-2075

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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESHYDROGEN

• NOT AN ENERGY SOURCE JUST A CARRIER
• THIS FACT HAS A BIG IMPACT ON OVERALL EFFICIENCY
• EXAMPLE FOR COAL ? ELECTRICAL POWER ? HYDROGEN ?
  FUEL CELL ? ELECTRICAL POWER ? FCV WHEELS
• GENERATING TRANSMISSION EFFICIENCY 30
• HYDROGEN ELECTROLYZER EFFICIENCY 65
• HYDROGEN TRANSPORTATION, DISTRIBUTION,
  COMPRESSION DELIVERY TO VEHICLE TANK 80
• OVER-THE-ROAD ACTUAL TANK-TO-WHEELS EFFICIENCY OF
  USE 30 (IC) OR 45 (FC)
• SOURCE-TO-USE EFFICIENCY 5 (IC) OR 7 (FC)
• NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE, ALTHO THIS IS A WORST
  CASE!
• NOTE 1 KG H2 1 US GAL GASOLINE

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NEW ENERGY RESOURCESBIO-BASED FUELS

• BIOMASS-BASED FUELS
• ETHANOL OK IN A 10 GASOLINE BLEND.BUT NOT AS
  E-85 (LOW MPG, QUALITY)
• BIODIESEL OK IN A DIESEL BLEND ( 20 BD)
• BUT BLEND QUALITY IS A MAJOR ISSUE
• BIODIESEL BY HYDROGENATION LOOKS V. GOOD
• BIOMASS CONVERSION TO LIQUID FUELS (BTL) BY
  FERMENTATION OR GASIFICATION
• GASIFICATION TO SYNGAS ECONOMICS INDICATE COAL
  IS A PREFERRED SOURCE
• BUT BIOMASS PRODUCES NO NET CO2, WHILE COAL
  REQUIRES CO2 CAPTURE
• MORE ON THAT LATER.

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CLIMATE CHANGE

• CLIMATE CHANGE
• (OR GLOBAL WARMING)

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CLIMATE CHANGETHE BASICS

• A JUSTIFICATION FOR MUCH AET ACTION
• MOSTLY THAT AIMED AT CO2 REDUCTION AND INCREASING
  OUR ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
• THE USUAL QUESTIONS ARE
• IS IT REAL OR JUST POLITICS AS USUAL?
• WHAT ARE THE REAL CAUSES OF CC?
• IF WE CORRECT FOR THOSE THAT WE CAN CONTROL, WILL
  WE ACHIEVE ANYTHING USEFUL?
• WHAT WILL IT COST TO ACHIEVE SOMETHING USEFUL?
• WHAT ALTERNATIVE (OR ADDITIONAL) STEPS SHOULD WE
  BE TAKING TO DEAL WITH CC?
• SHOULD WE BELIEVE EVERYTHING WE HEAR?

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CLIMATE CHANGETHE BASICS

• CLIMATE CHANGE
• IT IS REAL AND VERY SERIOUS
• WE KNOW THAT CC IS PARTLY MAN-MADE MAYBE AS
  MUCH AS 50 DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC CO2, CH4, N2O,
  FLUOROCARBONS, OTHER EMISSIONS
• THE BALANCE IS MOSTLY FROM NATURAL SOURCES
  VOLCANOES, FOREST FIRES, ROTTING VEGETATION AND
  WASTE, NON-CO2 WATER VAPOR SOURCES.....
• WE SHOULD FIX WHAT WE CAN BY REDUCING FUTURE
  ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS
• BUT THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE THAT WE CAN DO ABOUT
  THE PAST AND THE NON-ANTHRO PRESENT WE JUST
  DONT KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT REVERSING CC TO WRITE A
  PRESCRIPTION
• MANY UNCERTAINTIES THE OCEANS, SURFACE WATERS,
  THE IMPACT OF INSOLATION, CHEMISTRY!

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CLIMATE CHANGETHE BASICS

• CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• ALMOST ALL OF OUR KNOWLEDGE IS BASED ON COMPUTER
  MODELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
• MOST OF THESE INVOLVE SO MANY ASSUMPTIONS AND SO
  MUCH NOISE IN THE MEASURED INPUT DATA THAT THE
  OUTPUTS ARE ONLY QUALITATIVE.
• WE KNOW WITH REASONABLE CERTAINTY THAT MAJOR
  CONTRIBUTIONS ARE MADE BY
• CLIMATE CHANGE AGENTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
• SOLAR HEATING (INSOLATION)
• SIGNIFICANT PROVEN CC AGENTS ARE CO2, H2O, CH4,
  N2O
• BUT MAJOR CONTRIBUTIONS ARE MADE FROM TIME TO
  TIME BY PARTICULATE MATTER (DUST), SULFATE
  AEROSOLS, AND A FEW CHEMICALS PRESENT AT VERY LOW
  LEVELS SF6, FOR EXAMPLE THAT CAN EXERT A
  DISPROPORTIONATE EFFECT

40
CLIMATE CHANGETHE BASICS

• CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• MORE SOLAR ENERGY REACHING THE EARTHS SURFACE
  IT HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY SINCE ABOUT 1850,
  THE END OF THE LITTLE ICE AGE.
• THIS CONTRIBUTES ABOUT 1/3 OF CC, BOTH DIRECTLY
  AND THROUGH INCREASED WATER EVAPORATION
• WATER VAPOR IS A CLIMATE CHANGE AGENT ABOUT AS
  EFFECTIVE AS CO2
• CO2 AND CH4 (16x AS EFFECTIVE AS CO2) FROM
  NATURAL SOURCES, E.G.
• ROTTING VEGETATION
• FOREST FIRES
• VOLCANIC ACTIVITY
• WARMING OF PERMAFROST (ADDITIONAL DECOMPOSITION
  PLUS RELEASED METHANE HYDRATES)

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CLIMATE CHANGETHE BASICS

• CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• ANTHROPOGENIC (MAN-MADE) CONTRIBUTIONS ARE ALSO
  VERY REAL
• COMBUSTION CO2 AUTOS, INDUSTRY, BUILDINGS
• METHANE LEAKS FROM NATURAL GAS HANDLING SYSTEMS
• LEAKS FROM CHEMICAL PROCESSING FACILITIES
• USE OF CERTAIN CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS
• USE OF NO-TILL FARMING GENERATES MORE CO2, USE OF
  NITROGEN FERTILIZER GENERATES N2O
• THESE CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED AT
  BETWEEN 5 AND 50 OF THE TOTAL. 5 IS FAR TOO
  LOW THE RIGHT NUMBER SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO
  30-40.
• THUS SOLAR 33, MAN-MADE 35, NATURAL 32
• EVEN IF MAN-MADE 40, 60 IS STILL OUT OF
  CONTROL

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CLIMATE CHANGEWHAT GOES UP DOES NOT ALWAYS GO
DOWN!
43
CLIMATE CHANGE

• ACTUAL US CO2 DATA

44
CLIMATE CHANGE

• MORE ACTUAL CO2 DATA

45
(No Transcript)
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CLIMATE CHANGE

• POSSIBLE FUTURE CO2 TRENDS

B
A
2007 400 PPM
C
D
1950s growth of automobile fleet
1770 - Industrial Revolution Begins 280 PPM
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CLIMATE CHANGE

• WE DO NOT KNOW ENOUGH TO WRITE BIG CHECKS FOR CC
  CURES YET
• MORE POLITICIANS PR THAN SOUND SCIENCE!
• WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
• FOCUS ON THE LOW-HANGING FRUIT ENERGY
  EFFICIENCY CONSERVATION TO LIMIT NEW CO2
• WE ARE 50 YEARS TOO LATE TO FIX THE OLD CO2
• INVEST IN DEVELOPING AN UNDERSTANDING OF CC
• INVEST IN COMPENSATING FOR CC ADAPT!!
• COMMIT TO EDUCATING THE MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC
  ABOUT THE FACTS OF CC
• AVOID BEING PRESSURED BY CLIMATE CHANGE INTO BAD
  AET CHOICES OR MISGUIDED ACTIONS

48
CLIMATE CHANGE
The Economist, June 2-8 2007

49
CLIMATE CHANGETHE BASICS

• CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• IF MAN IS ONLY 40 OF THE CC PROBLEM, CAN WE
  EXPECT TO CORRECT THE TOTAL PROBLEM?
• ONLY PARTLY! THE REST WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
  NATURE.
• DOES THIS MEAN THAT WE SHOULD DO NOTHING?
• NO. BUT WE SHOULD NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH SUCCESS TO
  COME FROM OUR EFFORTS
• WE SHOULD INSTEAD TAKE STEPS TO ADAPT TO - AND
  MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF - CLIMATE CHANGE
• SOME STEPS ARE BEING TAKEN NOW
• FOR EXAMPLE, ANYTHING THAT REDUCES THE
  CONSUMPTION OF CARBON (IN FUELS) BOTH SAVES MONEY
  AND REDUCES CO2 EMISSIONS
• BUT IT WILL NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM.

50
CLIMATE CHANGETHE BASICS

• HOW CAN WE HELP?
• INCREASE EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY USE
• PREFERABLY WHILE MAINTAINING PERFORMANCE
• USE MORE CARBON-NEUTRAL FUELS
• E.G., THOSE DRIVED FROM BIOMASS WHICH RECYCLE
  THE CARBON RELEASED DURING PROCESSING AND
  COMBUSTION
• USE CARBON SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES
• E.G., CAPTURE CO2 GAS FOR USE BY INDUSTRY
• CONVERT CO2 INTO INERT MINERALS FOR DISPOSAL
• THE ONLY WAY TO CONTINUE USING ESSENTIAL FOSSIL
  FUELS
• PROBLEM THIS COSTS MONEY!!
• THE CHALLENGE FINDING THE MOST COST-EFFECTIVE
  ROUTE TO CARBON EMISSIONS REDUCTION
• BUT DONT EXPECT TO SOLVE THE WHOLE PROBLEM!

51
CLIMATE CHANGE Prins and Rayner, Nature 44925
p 973, 2007

• KYOTO 1 IS A FAILURE ! (KYOTO 2 THE SAME!)
• TOP DOWN, NOT MARKET
• 150 PLAYERS WHEN 15 NATIONS REPRESENT 80 OF
  EMISSIONS.
• CC IS A COMPLEX PROBLEM COMPARED TO ACID RAIN,
  OZONE HOLE, WMDs, NUCLEAR WEAPONS
• EXAMPLE OF A PATH-DEPENDENT SYSTEM
• GLOBAL INTERLACED ENERGY SYSTEM
• VARYING NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORIES
• INVESTMENT IN MITIGATION FAR EXCEEDS THE
  INVESTMENT IN ADAPTATION
• WE MUST FOCUS ON ADAPTATION!