Office of Hydrologic Development

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Office of Hydrologic Development
Gary Carter Director NOAA Hydrology Program
Manager October 2004
Together, we develop and deliver valued
science, software and information for river and
water resource forecasts to save lives and
property, manage water resources, and enhance
Americas economy
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River Forecasting Challenges Conceptual
Catchment Representation
Rainfall
Evapo- transpiration
Infiltration
Fast flow
Soil moisture storage
Slow flow
Percolation
Base flow
Groundwater storage
Total flow
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National River Forecast System
Ensemble Streamflow

Calibration System (CS)

Prediction (ESP) System
Calibration (Hydrologic and Hydraulic
Models)
Analysis window
Analysis

Hydrologic
Historical
and
Data
Hydraulic
Models
flow
time
Operational Forecast System (OFS)
Hydrologic and
Real-Time Observed and Forecast Data
Statistical
Hydraulic Models
Analysis and Data Assimilation
Analyses
short term
forecasts
Probabilistic Short term to Extended
current states
Interactive
Forecast
Interactive
Program (IFP)
Adjustments
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NWS Hydrologic Model Scales
National Products
Major River Basins
Forecast Points
High Resolution Analyses
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Office of Hydrologic Development

• New Products and Forecast Assessment
• Software Engineering for Field Operations
• Data Collection, Assimilation, and Analysis
• Precipitation Estimation Techniques
• Hydrologic Modeling Applied Research

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OHD Hydrology Laboratory

• Hydrologic Software Engineering
• 18 Federal and 9 Contract Employees
• Hydrologic Science and Modeling
• 9 Federal and 18 Contract Employees
• Hydrologic Data Systems
• 9 Federal and 6 Contract Employees

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Collaborative Hydrologic Research

• Hydrologic Modeling
• University of Arizona
• Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• University of Colorado
• University of Central Florida
• Hydrologic Research Center
• Information Content
• Colorado State University

• Precipitation Estimation
• Princeton University
• University of Iowa
• City University of New York
• National Severe Storms Laboratory
• Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
• CUAHSI
• University of California, Irvine

• GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP
  involves NOAAs Office of Global Programs, NCEPs
  Environmental Modeling Center, NASA, Academia,
  etc.)
• Data assimilation
• Parameter estimation
• Hydrologic modeling
• Ensemble prediction
• Forecast verification

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Science, Software, and Information Thrusts

• Maintain and enhance current hydrologic services
• Improve techniques for multisensor precipitation
  estimation for river models and flash flood
  threat
• Advance hydraulic modeling and inundation
  forecast mapping
• Develop ensemble streamflow prediction techniques
  for short-term river forecasting
• Test high-resolution distributed hydrologic
  modeling
• Implement river forecast verification methodology
• Update precipitation frequency studies

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Web Based Precipitation Frequency Data Server

• All products delivered
• electronically (eGov)
• Output suitable for design documentation
• Point and click user interface
• Graphs and tables
• High quality cartographic maps
• GIS compatible grids
• Documentation
• 4,000 requests per month

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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

• Better flood warnings water resource forecasts
  by leveraging
• observational data from Federal (i.e.,
  USGS), state, local agencies
• higher resolution analyses forecast
  information
• well calibrated river models
• enhanced software engineering
• advanced hydrologic science

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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Major Program Elements
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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Implementation Areas
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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Flood Forecast Mapping
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Water Resources Challenges

• A sustainable and secure society is one that
  meets its water needs without destroying the
  ecosystems upon which it depends or the prospects
  of generations yet to come.
• Over the past half-century, the scale and
• pace of human influences on fresh water
• systems has accelerated rapidly, along
• with population and consumption growth.
• Worldwide water demands roughly tripled,
• and, fresh water wetlands have diminished
• in area by about half.
• At least 20 of Earths 10,000
• freshwater fish species are now at risk of
• extinction or are already extinct.
• Worldwatch Institute (March 2004)

Water 2025 - US Department of Interior (potential
water conflict areas salinity and international
boundary issues)
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Water Resources Initiative

• Objective Nationally consistent, water and soil
  condition forecasts delivered via a national
  digital database
• Outcome NOAAs water resources information and
  forecasts delivered to Federal, academic, and
  private sector partners for critical decisions
  related to
• Sustainable irrigation
• More efficient power generation
• Sensible, year-long water conservation plans
• Rational allocation and distribution of water
• More cost-effective river commerce
• Protection of threatened and endangered species
• Balanced terrestrial/aquatic watershed management
• Enhanced aquatic habitats
• Establishes a central inventory of users
  (industries, organizations, private sector
  intermediaries) and benefits for water resources
  information
• Creates a Community Hydrologic Prediction System
  for the rapid transfer of collaborative research
  into operations
• Builds on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
  Service which delivers river conditions for
  discrete points along major rivers

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CHPS Service Oriented Architecture

• Encapsulation of data and algorithms makes it
  simpler to replace or insert new modules
• Avoids central rebuild of entire system
• Time from research to operations is reduced
  because adding new algorithm or data service
  does not impact existing services regression
  testing minimized
• Streamlined process to work with outside groups
  on new capabilities
• Direct access to new hydrologic models and water
  quality modelling expertise within other agencies

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Water Resources Vision Integrated
Products and Services
High-resolution Gridded Water Resources Product
Suite
Applications Drought Mitigation Flood
Potential Flood Management Water
Allocation Transportation Emergency
Management Agriculture Ecosystems
Management Research
Partners
NOAA Federal Agencies Tribal Agencies State
Agencies Local Agencies Private Sector Academia

• Snowpack Properties