Use of NWP Developer-User Liaisons in Forecaster Professional Development Training

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Use of NWP Developer-User Liaisons in Forecaster
Professional Development Training

• William R. Bua and Stephen D. Jascourt,
  UCAR/Cooperative Program for Operational
  Meteorology Education and Training (COMET)

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Thanks to

• Dr. Tim Spangler for some slide information
• Dr. Stephen Jascourt for some helpful
  modifications and additions

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Talk Outline

• A little bit about COMET
• History of the NWP training project (1998-2003)
• Development of the NWP Professional Development
  Series
• Filling in the NWP matrix
• Application of NWP concepts case studies
• The liaison concept
• Evolution
• The medium is the message How we communicate
• Training examples
• Present and future projects

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COMET History and Purpose

• At the request of the NWS, was started in 1989 at
  UCAR
• Original purpose
• Prepare operational meteorologists to apply
  mesoscale data effectively
• Accelerate incorporation of research findings
  into operations
• Expanded role
• Enhance meteorology education in universities and
  meteorological services throughout the world
• Outreach Program
• Funding for university projects with operational
  orientation
• Education and Training
• Design and produce classroom instruction and
  distance learning media, including teletraining,
  case studies, and Web- and CD-based learning
  modules

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COMET Mission Statement

• Serve as a premier resource to support, enhance,
  convey, and stimulate scientific knowledge about
  the weather for the benefit of providers,
  educators, and users of weather information
• Providers Operational forecasters
• Educators K-12, university programs
• Users Governments/emergency managers, etc.

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• Sponsors
• NOAA
• National Weather Service
• National Environmental Satellite Data Information
  Service
• National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
  Satellite Systems
• DoD
• Naval Meteorology, Oceanography Command
• Air Force Air Weather Agency
• National Science Foundation
• International
• Meteorological Service of Canada

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History of the COMET NWP project (1998-2003)

• NWP Professional Development Series outline
  developed 1998, to answer
• What competencies must the training help the
  operational (NWS) forecaster meet?
• Understanding NWP models and processes
• Completed December 2000
• Understanding current characteristics of
  operational NWP models
• Ongoing, started 2000
• Correctly applying NWP concepts (via case
  examples)
• Ongoing, started 2001
• Kickoff meeting 1/1999

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COMET normal interface method

• Training need identified by sponsor (such as NWS
  Forecast Requirements Group)
• Subject matter expert (SME) identified
• SME helps design content, authors basic draft or
  outline, reviews all content revised in later
  stages
• COMET meteorologists, instructional designers,
  and graphic artists, all in Boulder, shape
  content into distance learning material
• Completes writing, ensures focus and language are
  user-appropriate, terms defined, interactions and
  graphics designed, etc.

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Evolution of NWP Liaison Concept

• Natural evolution after development of fixed
  general/generic NWP model content in late 2000
• Training development on model-specific
  configurations was begun in 2001
• Frequent contact with NWP developers for content
• Required for timely training on model changes
• Communication of changes in model performance
• Contact with field meteorologists to develop and
  disseminate useful training on NWP
• What does the field care about?
• What does the field need to care about, that they
  are unaware of?

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COMET liason interface method for NWP

• COMETs own resident experts at NCEP
• Integrated into COMETs structure, procedures,
  resources, etc.
• Dedicated full-time on NWP project
• Share NWP information with other parts of COMET
  other projects that have an NWP-related component
• Establish relationship between COMET and
  NCEP/EMC
• Establish relationship between field offices and
  COMET NWP resources
• Rapid forecaster-oriented communication with
  field offices about model-related operational
  concerns
• Byproduct has been investigation into model
  problems, assisting EMCs efforts to correct
  these

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Environmental Modeling Center
Global Climate and Weather Modeling
Branch GFS/MREF
Mesoscale Modeling Branch Eta/NMM/RUC/SREF
Marine Modeling Branch WaveWatchIII
Disseminating information Synergy meetings,
internal branch communications, assisting in
parallel run performance assessments
Gathering information Proposed model changes,
verification, diagnostics, model performance,
intelligent use of NWP, NEW models, New
analysis/forecast tools
Bill Bua Embedded
Liaisons Stephen Jascourt
Disseminating information Web-based training
(matrix, modules, cases), teletraining,
newsgroups, workshop presentations,
powerpoints, attendance at conferences, WFO
visits, etc.
Gathering information Perceived model
performance, case study topics, feedback on
training, new training needs
National Weather Service Weather Science and
Operation Officers (SOOs), Field Meteorologists,
etc.
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Communication with Model Developers

• Attendance at branch meetings
• Synergy meetings (once per month)
• All WWB NCEP centers attend
• NCO computer status (good for getting a handle on
  time feasibility of model upgrades)
• EMC Global, meso, marine model upgrades in the
  pipeline, parallel model run status
• Marine and Hydrological Predictions Centers
  Feedback on parallel and operational NWP model
  performance
• Information from WFOs
• Newsgroups
• Contacts at meetings/workshops/symposia
• Telephone contacts
• Annual NCEP model reviews

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EMCward communication example from NWS WFO

• Eta snow problem in early January 2003
• Milwaukee/Sullivan WI WFO noted large cold 2-m
  temperature bias and sent e-mail to the
  Eta-Newsgroup
• Problem was not noticed in RUC
• Result was a case study
• Thin, fluffy snow cover melts too slowly because
  Eta model has 51 ratio (in reality, was probably
  151-201) and sets 1.5 minimum snow depth (0.3
  water equivalent).
• RUC allows thinner snow cover, melts more quickly
• Work also continues on improving the treatment of
  light snow cover in the Eta

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Communication with fieldvia the World-Wide Web

• Operational Model Matrix
• http//meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2
• Application of NWP Concepts Case studies
• http//meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases
• Modules
• http//meted.ucar.edu/topics_nwp.php

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Interface to information The NWP Matrix
http//meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2
Newsgroups for two main NWP models at NCEP
Summary of expected impact of model upgrades
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Interface to information The NWP Matrix
Understanding NWP models and processes (link)
Understanding current characteristics of oper NWP
models (link)
Model structure and dynamics
Model physics precipitation and clouds
Model physics radiative processes
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Interface to information The NWP Matrix
Derived Products
Model Process
Assimilation system
Links to other met centers and NWP model
information
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Applications of NWP Concepts
http//meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases
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Case Study Structure

• Abstract
• Learning objectives
• Navigation through the case
• Acknowledgements
• Body of case
• Situation set-up
• Model data and verification
• Why did model behave as it did?
• Discussion/conclusions

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A Sample of Case Study Topics to Date

• Changes in model behavior after upgrade
• Improved light precipitation forecasts in Eta-12
  (after Ferrier scheme upgrade)
• New tools
• Diagnosed versus forecast (Ferrier scheme)
  precipitation type in the Eta-12
• Ensemble prediction
• Medium range and interpretation of run-to-run GFS
  inconsistencies
• Initial condition problems in SREF
• Data Assimilation
• Effect of different data type on analysis
• Good data leading to poor analysis

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Link to page
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Modules

• Presented via one or more media
• Web (passive visual only)
• Webcast (passive visual and verbal)
• Teletraining (visual and verbal, student/teacher
  interaction)

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Sample of Modules Produced to Date

• Web based
• Understanding Data Assimilation How Models
  Create Their Initial Conditions
• The Balancing Act of Geostrophic Adjustment
• Ensemble Forecasting Explained (coming soon!)
• Teletraining
• What Can You Expect From the Eta-12?
• Top Ten Misconceptions about NWP Models
  Teletraining Archive
• Webcasts
• Freezing and Melting, Precipitation Type, and
  Numerical Weather Prediction
• Ensemble prediction (coming soon!)

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Whats on Our Plates for FY04?

• Upgrades to the Operational NWP matrix
• Eta upcoming changes (by December 03?)
• GFS spring bundle
• Add Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)
• Add hybrid ?-p coordinate in generic NWP
  Vertical Coordinate section, and augment
  non-hydrostatic modeling section in Model Type
• Add new matrix on ensemble prediction system
  configurations (similar to NWP matrix info for
  specific operational forecast models)
• Ensemble teletraining and web-cast

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Whats on Our Plates for FY04?

• More case studies (at least two) as interesting
  situations arise
• Continue communicating with WFOs through the Eta
  and GFS newsgroups
• IFPS smart tools and smart-init science
  evaluation
• Work toward development of multimedia training on
  use of NWP in IFPS in initial and forecast 5-km
  grids
• Support for other COMET efforts
• Dispersion model training
• Aviation and Marine modules (as NWP subject
  matter experts)
• NorLat training (Canadian/Alaskan forecasters)

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Long-Term Plans (not exhaustive)

• Workshop on use of NWP in IFPS (FY05?)
• Training
• WRF (as finally configured by NCEP)
• The WRF concept (WRF is NOT a model!)
• Web-based on matrix (augmentation of NMM?)
• Interactive teletraining
• Forecaster interpretation of high-resolution
  mesoscale models including with explicit deep
  convection
• Generic NWP model issues (Web-basedmatrix?)
• Specific case examples (Web-based)
• Interactive teletraining
• (more distant) Using 3-d visualization to help
  the human rapidly assimilate the ever-increasing
  onslaught of model data
• Contingent on d3d being implemented and
  forecaster proficiency in mechanics of how to use
  it in most WFOs

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For more information..

• Bill.Bua_at_noaa.gov
• GFS contact
• At EMC, cubicle 202-03, x7244
• Stephen.Jascourt_at_noaa.gov
• Eta contact
• At NWS headquarters, SSMC-2, 14th floor
• 301-713-0280 x114