Measures of Sustainability: What do they mean and how well do they work

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Measures of Sustainability What do they mean
and how well do they work?

• C. L. Flemmer and R. C. Flemmer

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The Problem

• 6.4 Billion people on Earth in 2005.
• 1.25 growth per annum.
• Expectation that poverty can be reduced need
  more goodies more pollution.
• No real possibility of birth control,
  particularly in areas of high growth.
• The nature of exponentials you were right, Mr.
  Malthus!
• Even the developed countries dont keep their
  backyards in order.
• The poor countries cant do anything.

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Assume its not exponential . . .(but it is)
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How can we make the Developed Countries behave?

• Societies, both animal and human have controls
  which punish them when they are too selfish and
  damage the common interest.
• There is no other way to control individuals
  Marxism couldnt.
• In order to respond to a crime, the society has
  to know that it has happened.
• We have to be able to measure
  Ecological Crime

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Sustainability

• Development that meets the needs of the present
  without compromising the ability of future
  generations to meet their own needs (UNCED 1987)
• or
• Dont be selfish and damage the common interest

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The Sneaky Dollar

• Measures are used to snare customers in
  supermarkets or international markets
• Foodmiles, Eco-Labelling
• Measures are used to wring hands and get funding
  for research projects.
• Measures arent and cannot be used for
  International Control because they are not
  credible.

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Micro-Level Measures of Sustainability

• Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)
• Measures the total (direct indirect) resource
  use and pollutant output of a product/process
  from cradle-to-grave.
• Used to get eco-labelling (eg., Forest
  Stewardship for paper products).
• Toxicity is usually ignored so it is a poor
  measure of sustainability.
• Eco-Efficiency Indicators
• A ratio of output/input, eg. Tonnes of butter/GJ
  electricity.
• Various units and names, eg. for financial
  efficiency, physical units for eco-productivity.
• Can be extended to the macro-level (applied to a
  nation).
• Does not address the question of sustainability.
• Toxicity Ratings
• EcoRR (Ecological relative risk) a pesticide
  scoring system which ranks pesticides in terms of
  their toxicity.

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Macro-Level Measures of Sustainability or
Indicators of Sustainabilty (ISDs)

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions/Kyoto Protocol
• A measure of greenhouse gas emission levels and
  an incentive to get back to 5 below the 1990
  levels.
• There is significant pressure to pretend to care.
• How will nations be held accountable for their
  emissions?
• Input-Output Analysis
• Gives a clear picture of the total resource use
  and pollutant output of each sector of the
  economy.
• It does not consider the question of toxicity and
  so fails as a measure of sustainability.
• Doesnt provide a ranking.
• Living Planet Index (LPI)
• World Wildlife Fund has defined the Global 200
  ecosystems and the LPI is a measure of their
  health compared with the 1970 baseline.
• It measures the number of species present in
  several eco-systems
• It does not map onto political boundaries.

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Ecological Footprint (EF)

• The total land and water area required to support
  a population with all its resources and to absorb
  all its wastes and emissions.
• A single value which gives a ranking of the
  ecological performance of nations.
• It does not consider most wastes which cannot be
  assimilated, for example, nuclear wastes, water
  and atmospheric pollutants (except CO2) or soil
  erosion.
• Countries which import products acquire the
  footprint associated with the product.
• The ranking correlates well with the wealth of
  nations but poorly with the levels of
  pollution/environmental damage.

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Ecological Footprint 1999
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World Poverty
Rich
Poor
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Methane Concentration
low
high
ESA 2005 Satellite photograph
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Nitrogen Dioxide Concentration
ESA 2004 Satellite photograph
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Ecological Footprint Ranking
Worst/highest EF
Best/lowest EF
. 144. Bangladesh 145. Tajikistan 146.
Haiti 147. Somalia 148. Afghanistan

• 1. United Arab Emirates
• 2. USA
• 3. Kuwait
• 4. Australia
• .
• .
• .
• 14. New Zealand

Very Bad
Very Good
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The EF Fails as a Credible Measure

• It does not represent ecological damage.
• Its ranking is inversely proportional to
  ecological damage.
• It largely reports wealth.

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Principles of the Ecological Overhead

• There must be no damage, at all, to the land,
  waterways, oceans, atmosphere or biosphere.
• Any damage must be quantified in terms of money.
• The sum of all such damages is the Ecological
  Overhead.

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Problem 1Fishing Nets are Murder

• If you drop a fishing net over the side in the
  wide ocean, you cant get it back and repair the
  damage by paying for some process.
• If you murder someone, you cannot repair the
  problem by paying for some process.
• Society needs to control (punish) both these
  actions.
• Society kills or imprisons the murderer our EO
  scheme offers a severe fine 1000 x cost of
  doing the decent thing added into the EO.

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Problem 2People want to Breathe

• CO2 comes from people, cows etc. and we cant
  really ask them to stop breathing.
• CO2 is released from factories and we demand that
  they stop doing it.
• CO2 is released from cars and we demand that they
  stop doing it.
• Answer
• People should breathe freely and we wont count
  the cost because we dont want to control it.
• We can assess the cost for cars and factories
  with carbon credits or else the cost of scrubbing
  factory air streams and some other technology for
  cars.

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Problem 3The Cost of the Exercise

• Producing numbers such as for the cost of
  extracting chlorine and phosphates etc. etc.
  requires some effort. But they only need to be
  determined once.
• The measurement of the pollutants is required for
  any sustainability measure.
• Millions of dollars is presently being spent on
  Footprint estimates, to no advantage.

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Conclusion

• There is no existing, workable, sustainability
  measure.
• Ecological Footprint is gravely flawed.
• The Ecological Overhead is credible and, with a
  lot of work, can be precise.
• When numbers are available for EO and when the
  world really cares, measures can be taken to
  force rich countries to behave themselves.
• There seems little hope for the ecologies of poor
  countries.