New global challenges for health, quality of life and sustainable development in the context of the

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International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA)

• BRIEF HISTORY
• 1972 initiative of U.S. and Soviet Union
• Created research center as aneutral bridge
  between east and west
• Original Charter of 1972 12 countries
• 1994 Ministerial Conference renewed mandate as
  independent, scientific institution

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The End of World Population Growth in the 21st
Century New Challenges for Human Capital
Formation and Sustainable Development A
forthcoming IIASA Book W. Lutz, W. C. Sanderson
and S. Scherbov (Eds.)
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Main Points

• The new demography of the 21st century requires a
  new population paradigm Population Balance
• This paradigm has two main features
• 1. Focus on age structure and not just
  population size and growth.
• 2. Adding education as an essential dimesion.

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Policy Relevance

• The new paradigm of Population Balance gives a
  unified framework for defining policies in the
  context of both rapid population growth and rapid
  ageing.

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Recommendation

• The current one-dimesnional goal of population
  stabilisation is no longer appropriate in the
  demographically diverse world of the 21st
  century.
• It should be replaced by population balance
  which also takes age-structure and education into
  account.

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New global challenges for health, quality of life
and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth

• The end of world population growth
• Low fertility and negative demographic momentum
  in Europe
• The demography of human capital formation
• Literate Life Expectancy a new quality of life
  and social development indicator
• Does population aging necessarily result in more
  people with disabilties?
• New global challenges

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World Population from the year 1000 to
2100(historical data from 1000 to 2000 deciles
of IIASAs probabilistic forecasts to 2100)
Source of historical data UN 2001
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Nine sample paths (out of 2,000 simulated paths)
of world population size from 2000 to 2100
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Declines of the resulting uncertainty
distribution of world population size to 21000.
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World Population from the year 1000 to
2100(historical data from 1000 to 2000 deciles
of IIASAs probabilistic forecasts to 2100)
Source of historical data UN 2001
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Probability of End of Population
Growth Proportion peaking prior to the indicated
year (out of 2,000 simulated population paths)
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1st, 3rd, 5th (median), 7th, and 9th deciles of
the forecasted distributions of world population
size at 10-year intervals from 2000 to 2100.
Note Uncertainty measure is (9th decile-1st
decile)/median.
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Western Europe, uncertainty distribution of the
proportion above age 80.
UN high
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Percentage of population aged 65 and older in
Europe by regional units (NUTS 3).
Berlin August 15, 2003 15
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New global challenges for health, quality of life
and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth

• The end of world population growth
• Low fertility and negative demographic momentum
  in Europe
• The demography of human capital formation
• Literate Life Expectancy a new quality of life
  and social development indicator
• Does population aging necessarily result in more
  people with disabilties?
• New global challenges

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Birth deficit due to the tempo effect

• An increase in the mean age of childbearing
  results in a lasting loss of births, unless the
  childbearing age decreases again

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EU-15 Population Scenarios
All scenarios assume constant mortality and no
net migration.
Instant ReplacementLevel Fertility
Ultimate population declineindicates current
agestructure has negativemomentum
Year
Source Lutz, ONeill, Scherbov, Science, 2003.
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EU-15 Population Scenarios
All scenarios assume constant mortality and no
net migration.
Instant ReplacementLevel Fertility
20 Years of Fertilityat 1.5, then Replacement
Continued low fertilityleads to growingnegative
momentum
Year
Source Lutz, ONeill, Scherbov, Science, 2003.
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EU-15 Population Scenarios
All scenarios assume constant mortality and no
net migration.
Instant ReplacementLevel Fertility
20 Years of Fertilityat 1.8, then Replacement
20 Years of Fertilityat 1.5, then Replacement
The tempo effect accountsfor about 45 of
thepopulation decline due tocontinued low
fertility.
Year
Source Lutz, ONeill, Scherbov, Science, 2003.
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Effects of Low Fertility on Aging in Europe
Year
Source Lutz, ONeill, Scherbov, Science, 2003.
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New global challenges for health, quality of life
and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth

• The end of world population growth
• Low fertility and negative demographic momentum
  in Europe
• The demography of human capital formation
• Literate Life Expectancy a new quality of life
  and social development indicator
• Does population aging necessarily result in more
  people with disabilties?
• New global challenges

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Forecasting Human Capital Adding Education to
Age and Sex

• Formal education is typically acquired at young
  ages and then does not change over the life
  course (goes along cohort lines, multi-state
  population models).
• This is why the educational composition of the
  total population changes only very slowly.
• Educational efforts made today will only improve
  the average education of the work force many
  years later.

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Projecting the population by level of education

• We need to know the current composition of the
  population by age, sex and education categories.
• We need to know how the birth rates differ for
  women with different levels of education.
• We need to know school enrollment at different
  levels and make alternative assumptions for the
  future.
• We need to make assumptions about future trends
  in fertility, mortality and migration by level of
  education.

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Country Specific Scenario TFR 1.5 in 2030,
Education Constant
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Education-specific TFR India and China.
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Estimated population aged 20-64 years (in
millions) by levels of education, according to
the ICPD scenario, 2000-30, in three economic
mega-regions
Western and Eastern Europe and North America
South Asia
China and Centrally Planned Asia
1,200
800
400
0
2000 2015 2030 2000
2015 2030 2000 2015 2030
No education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
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New global challenges for health, quality of life
and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth

• The end of world population growth
• Low fertility and negative demographic momentum
  in Europe
• The demography of human capital formation
• Literate Life Expectancy a new quality of life
  and social development indicator
• Does population aging necessarily result in more
  peple with disabilties?
• New global challenges

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Table 1. Example of the calculation of the LLE of
rural men in Egypt, 1986.
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LLE at birth for selected countries in North
Africa, 19702005, for males (M) and females (F)
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LLE at birth for selected countries in
sub-Saharan Africa, 19702005, for males (M) and
females (F)
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Literate life expectancy for selected countries
by sex and urban and rural place of residence
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Literate life expectancy at birth for 13 world
regions, 2000-2030, according to the constant
and ICPD scenarios
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Projections of female literate life expectancy at
birth for six regions 2000-2030, according to the
ICPD scenario
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New global challenges for health, quality of life
and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth

• The end of world population growth
• Low fertility and negative demographic momentum
  in Europe
• The demography of human capital formation
• Literate Life Expectancy a new quality of life
  and social development indicator
• Does population aging necessarily result in more
  people with disabilties?
• New global challenges

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European Union 2000, Proportion with some
disabilities by age
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Age Pyramid of the EU-15 in 2000 by Disability
Status (red shading indicates persons with some
disabilities)
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Projected age pyramid of the disabled population
under the scenario with zero shift, i.e.,
constant age-specific profile (red shading
indicates persons with disabilities).
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Projected age pyramid of the disabled population
under the scenario with a two-year shift per
decade (red shading indicates persons with
disabilities).
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Results of the four alternative scenarios
shifting the age profile of disability by 0, 1, 2
and 3 years per decades (in millions of
disabled).
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New global challenges for health, quality of life
and sustainable development in the context of
the end of world population growth

• The end of world population growth
• Low fertility and negative demographic momentum
  in Europe
• The demography of human capital formation
• Literate Life Expectancy a new quality of life
  and social development indicator
• Does population aging necessarily result in more
  peple with disabilties?
• New global challenges

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Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable
Development
Aim To prepare a comprehensive scientific
assessment about the role of population in
sustainable development strategies, with the aim
of producing substantive input to the
Johannesburg 2002 summit. Organization and
Sponsorship Organized by the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
the International Union for the Scientific Study
of Population (IUSSP), and the United Nations
University (UNU). Sponsored by the UNFPA, the
Government of Austria, and the MacArthur
Foundation. Patronage and Constitution Maurice
Strong and Nafis Sadik are the Panels joint
patrons. It consists of 30 distinguished
scientists from different relevant
disciplines. Coordinators Wolfgang Lutz and
Mahendra Shah
IIASA 2002 / 46
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Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable
Development

• Demographically Diverse World
• Population Matters to Development and Environment
• Policy Must Account for Differential
  Vulnerability Within Populations
• Empowerment Through Education and Reproductive
  Health Has Multiple Benefits for People and
  Environment
• Strengthening Interdisciplinary Training

IIASA 2002 / 47
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Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable
Development
3) Policy Must Account For Differential
Vulnerability Within Populations Deteriorating
environmental conditions and extreme events do
not affect all countries, populations, or
households in the same way. Even within a
household, the effects may differ by age and
gender. Consideration of vulnerability must
therefore focus not only on countries but also on
the most vulnerable segments of the population
within countries. Vulnerability can be reduced by
promoting empowerment, investing in human
resources, and fostering participation in public
affairs and decision-making.
IIASA 2002 / 48
49
Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable
Development
4) Empowerment Through Education and Reproductive
Health Has Multiple Benefits for People and the
Environment Two policies have multiple benefits
for individual welfare, for social and economic
development, and for the environment. One is
investment in voluntary family planning and
reproductive health programs. The other top
policy priority is education. Education enhances
individual choice, fosters women's empowerment
and improves gender equity. More educated people
are in better health and often contribute to
greater environmental awareness. It may also
reduce vulnerability to environmental changes by
facilitating access to information and the means
to protect oneself.
IIASA 2002 / 49
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Global Science Panel Population in Sustainable
Development
5) Strengthening Interdisciplinary Training To
facilitate the joint consideration of population
trends, health, education, development, and
environment, more interdisciplinary education at
all levels is necessary. Training for the policy
community, media, and scientists is especially
important. Final note
A demography that goes beyond age and sex is
well suited to facilitate such interdisciplinary
approaches because it can capture the dynamics of
groups of individuals with all the
characteristics considered important (health
status, education, location etc.) and link it to
institutions.
IIASA 2002 / 50
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Projecting the population by level of education

• We need to know the current composition of the
  population by age, sex and education categories.
• We need to know how the birth rates differ for
  women with different levels of education.
• We need to know school enrollment at different
  levels and make alternative assumptions for the
  future.
• We need to make assumptions about future trends
  in fertility, mortality and migration by level of
  education.

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New Concept of Population Balance

• So far the problems associated with population
  growth and those associated with population
  ageing have been studied separately.
• Here we develop a common framework considering
  age structure.
• We complement these purely demographic factors by
  also considering the cost and the productivity
  enhancing effects of education.

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  Welfare Indictor for Stable Populations By
Fraction Educated and Total Fertility Rate,
Baseline Parameters
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Conclusions

• Population Balance can be seen as the population
  component of sustainable development.
• It is directly relevant for the Millennium
  Development Goals because it relates to poverty,
  education, reproduction, the environment and
  intergenerational equity.