ESMF NCEP Mark Iredell Chief NCEPEMC Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch May 23, 2006

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ESMF _at_ NCEP Mark IredellChief NCEP/EMC
Global Climate and Weather Modeling BranchMay
23, 2006
NCEP where Americas climate, weather, and
ocean services begin
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Outline

• Motivation
• Vision
• Progress
• Issues
• Conclusion

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Motivation
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Why ESMF _at_ NCEP?

• Most of the improvement in weather forecast skill
  over the past 20 years is due to improving
  numerical forecast system technology.
• However, national investment in computing and
  model development in the geophysical sciences is
  limited and dispersed.
• Therefore, it behooves us to leverage this
  investment with a common modeling framework and
  shared software development.

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Impact of Observations and Numerical Forecast
System Technology Growth on Global Forecasts
NFS Tech Growth Obs
Obs only
NFS Tech Growth Computing Data
Assim. Models Ensembles
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Why ESMF _at_ NCEP?

• Most of the improvement in weather forecast skill
  over the past 20 years is due to improving
  numerical forecast system technology.
• However, national investment in computing and
  model development in the geophysical sciences is
  limited and dispersed.
• Therefore, it behooves us to leverage this
  investment with a common modeling framework and
  shared software development.

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Vision

• my vision anyway, not necessarily everyones

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ESMF Component Framework
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NCEP component list (incomplete)

• I/O components
• ATM gridded component
• GFS physics component
• NAM physics component
• GMAO physics component
• GFS dynamics component
• UMO dynamics component
• Finite volume dynamics component
• Post component
• Surface cycling component
• Coupler components
• Land component
• Ocean component
• Ice component
• Aerosol component
• Ionosphere component
• Mesoscale component
• Hurricane components
• GSI 3DVAR component

• Change resolution coupler component
• Dynamics/Physics coupler component
• Ensemble coupler component
• Atmosphere/Land coupler component
• Atmosphere/Ice/Ocean coupler component
• Atmosphere/Aerosol coupler component
• Atmosphere/Ionosphere coupler component
• Analysis/Model coupler component
• Model/Post coupler component
• Other couplers

only includes components with active ESMF plans
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Progress
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Progress with ESMF _at_ NCEP

• The NCEP global forecast system (GFS) with a
  fully compliant ESMF adoption should be
  implemented operationally in June 2006. (Yang,
  Moorthi, Young)
• Features
• Stand-alone gridded component
• Uses clock, config, logerr
• No effect on results or timings

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Progress with ESMF _at_ NCEP

• The GFS already runs successfully in ensemble
  mode (14 members run concurrently). A stochastic
  ensemble coupler is being developed. (Yang, Hou)
• Promising progress toward making GFS a gridded
  rather than spectral component. (Juang)
• The B-grid global model (UMO) is near to being
  ready as a gridded component. (Black)
• Several other collaborations already support ESMF
  gridded components.

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Issues
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Costs/Benefits of ESMF _at_ NCEP

• Community involvement and lovefests
• Common framework for collaboration
• Shared software burden
• - Significant conversion effort
• - Increased code complexity
• - More black boxes

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Costs/Benefits of ESMF _at_ NCEP

• Ultimately, the key resources for NCEP (and other
  institutions) are its working scientists. We must
  ensure that any framework decisions are the best
  for our people to continue to develop and
  maintain world-class geophysical models.
• ESMF allows each institution to find its comfort
  level in adopting the framework.

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Conclusion

• NCEP continues to participate as a partner in the
  EMSF experience