The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios part I

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The energy issue and the possible contribution of
various nuclear energy production scenariospart
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H.Nifenecker Scientific consultant
LPSC/CNRS Chairman of  Sauvons le Climat 
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IPCC projections
2030 tCO2lt50/ton Renewables 35
electricity Nuclear 18 electricity
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IEAs successive Prospects fo Nuclear (World
Energy Outlook)
2020 2030 Mtoe TWh Mtoe TWh WEO
1998 604 2317 8 WEO 2000 617 2369 9 WEO
2002 719 2758 11 703 2697 9 WEO
2004 776 2975 12 764 2929 9 WEO
2006 861 3304 10 Alt. 2006
1070 4106 14
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Prospect for nuclear production 2000-2030 TWh
(AIEA July 2006)
1400
1200
1000
2000
2010 b
800
2010 H
2020 b
600
2020 H
2030 b
2030 H
400
200
0
Am L Eur E
MOAs S Ext. O
Am N
W Eur
Afr
Pacif
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Nuclear Intensive Scenarios

• Scenarios by difference
• P.A.Bauquis
• D.Heuer and E.Merle
• Objective oriented Scenarios
• H.Nifenecker et al.

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No miracle from renewables

• Hydro
• Limitation of ressource (Europe-USA)
• Environment and localization (Am.Sud, Asie,
  Afrique, Russie)
• Large Investments
• Reliable, available
• Might provide 20 of world electricity.
• France 70TWh/450
• Wind
•  fatal  Energy
• Limit 10-15 of electricity production

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No miracle with renewables

• Solar
• PV Ideal for isolated sites (Africa, SE Asia).
  Mostly artificial in Developed Countries and very
  expansive
• Thermal interesting for heating and warm water
• Thermodynamic Fiability? Hot and dry climates
  Hot and dry climate.
• Biomass
• Bio-fuels (10 Mtep/50)
• Wood energy.
• Competition with food, energy and environmental
  balance

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Pierre René Bauquis
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Renewable energies
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Renewable electricity
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A vision of energy mix by 2050
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Energy mix in 2050
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CO2 emissions
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Nuclear production
In Bauquis Scenario Nuclear production 0.6 Gtep
4 Gtep i.e. x 6.5
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Elsa Merle and Daniel Heuer
Hypothesis 2050

• Stabilization of fossile contribution
• World energy consumption x 2
• Renewable nuclear

• Multiplication by factor 8
• Then increase by 1.2/year up to 2100

Nuclear
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Objective oriented scenariosH.Nifenecker et al.
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2000 IIASA-WEC Scenarios

• A strong growth
• A1 Oil
• A2 Coal
• A3Gaz
• B Middle of the road
• C Low energy intensity. High electricity
• C1 Ren.Gaz
• C2 Ren.Nuclear

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GDP/cap
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Energy intensities
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World GDP
B2 110 000
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Primary energy per fuel
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Exhaustion of fossile reserves
Exhaustion of fossile reserves (Gtoe)
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2030-2050
2030

• Minimize use of fossils for Electricity
•  Reasonable  Development of Nuclear
• OECD 85
• Transition 50
• China, India, Latin America 30

3000 GWe Nuclear
2050

• Minimize use of coal and gas
• 30 coal China, India 30 gas Russia 100
  Africa
• 7500 GWe Nucléaire

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Scenario no coal no gaz in 2050
B218000, Nuclear1450
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CO2/GDP
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CO2/primen
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Gestion of Natural Uranium Reserves
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Unat exhaustion
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Breeding Cycles
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U-Pu vs Th-U
U-Pu versus Th-U cycles

• U-Pu
• Fast Spectra
• Pu fuel
• 1.2 GWe reactors
• Solid fuels
• 1 year cooling
• 25 years doubling time

• Th-U
• Thermal Spectra
• Pu, then 233U fuel
• 1 GWe reactors
• Molten Salts fuel
• 10 days fuel cycling
• 25 years doubling time

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Nb GWe
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Pu inventory
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Nb GWe Th-U
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U3 inventory
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Trajectory
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Stabilisation T

• Stabilization of CO2 concentration to 450 ppm
• Stabilization of temperature

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E.Merle, D.HeuerAlternative3 components
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Reactor types
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3 components

• 233U production
• 450 PWR and 300 FNR

• Les RNR ferment le cycle U/Pu

• natU consumption
• 7 million tons by 2100
• 10 times less fissile matter in fuel cycle
• Minor actinides production minimized

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R and D needsstandard reactors

• PWR reactors
• Selective reprocessing extraction of Cs, Sr and
  M.A.
• Th-Pu MOx fuel in order to produce U233
• Candu type reactors
• Use of Th-Pu and, then Th-U3 fuel
• Reprocssing of Th-U3 fuel
• Optimization of fuel regeneration

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R and D needsfast neutron reactors

• Sodium cooled
• Void coefficient
• Core Recompaction
• Th blanket
• Reprocessing of Th blanket
• Lead cooled reactors
• Corrosion problems
• Pb-Bi alloys
• Molten salt cooled reactors
• Chemical composition
• Corrosion
• Gas cooled reactors
• Reprocessing of refractory fuels

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R and D needsmolten salt reactors

• Neutron spectrum optimization
• Corrosion
• Fuel reprocessing

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Proliferation

• Political or technical question?

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References

• http//www.iiasa.ac.au/web-apps/ggi/
• GgiDb/dsd?Actionhtmlpagepageseries
• Scenarios with an Intensive Contribution of
  Nuclear Energy
• to the World Energy Supply
• H.Nifenecker et al. Published in IEJE 1999
• Scenarios for a Worldwide Deployment of Nuclear
• Energy Production
• E. Merle-Lucotte1, D. Heuer, C. Le Brun J-M.
  Loiseaux
• Note LPSC 05-73
• LEnergie de demain techniques,
  environnement,économie,
• J.L.Bobin, E.Huffer, H.Nifenecker, EDP Sciences
  2005, p.81-111
• Accelerator Driven Subcritical Reactors,
  H.Nifenecker, S.David,
• O.Méplan, IOP 2004