Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) under EFDA

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Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) under
EFDA

• Possible Portuguese contributions to the Fusion
  Socio-Economics Programme

Paulo Ferrão
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Outline

• The 1996 Fusion Programme Evaluation Board (FPEB)
• The Ad-Hoc Group on Socio-Economics
• An assessment of the research performed
• A new research agenda
• Possible Portuguese contributions to the Fusion
  Socio-Economics Programme

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FPEBDeliverable
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FPEB - Recommendations

• The Board strongly recommended undertaking a
  renewed effort in the involvement of both
  laboratories and industry.
• A successful fusion program must lead to an
  energy source which is both economically and
  socially acceptable.
• Deeper knowledge on Fusion can be woven into the
  fabric of society is needed, in order for the
  political process to face difficult decisions in
  a rational manner.

FEPB
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FPEB - Recommendations

• The Board considered that there was a need to
  complement the existing knowledge bases with an
  additional track, that of socio-economic research
  on fusion (SERF).
• Such research calls for a multi-disciplinary
  approach, bringing together researchers in the
  physical sciences, engineering and economic,
  social and environmental sciences.

FEPB
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FPEB - Recommendations

• A substantial effort should be devoted to
  socioeconomic research on fusion. It needs to be
  multidisciplinary and deal with issues such as
• Economics of fusion, direct and externalities
• public awareness,
• democratic governance of complex systems,
• value change

FEPB
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Towards a New Research Agenda

• The EFDA (European Fusion Development Agreement)
  Steering Committee decided on May, 29th, 2007, to
  establish an Ad-Hoc Group on Socio-Economics,
  whose mission had the following terms of
  Reference (ToR)
• Conduct an assessment of the achievements of the
  SERF against the objectives set by the FPEB in
  1996
• Propose revised overall longer-term objectives
  for SERF in the present context (ITER
  construction decided, climate change problem
  widely recognized)
• Propose guidelines for the activities to be
  pursued within the EFDA Work programme during
  FP7.

FEPB
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EFDA Ad-Hoc Group on Socio-Economics

• - Paulo Ferrão (IST), Chairman
• - Alejandro Zurita (CEC-Fusion directorate),
  Secretary
• - M. Quang Tran (CRPP)
• - M.R. Virdis (CEC-Energy directorate)
• - Gaetano Borrelli (ENEA)
• - C.Eherer (EFDA CSU RO for socio-economics)

FEPB
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SERF Socio-Economic Research on Fusion

• AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RESEARCH PERFORMED

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An assessment of the research performed SERF 1,2,3

• Fusion as part of the Energy System
• Fusion externalities
• Public acceptance of fusion
• Governance of complex systems

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Fusion as a part of the Energy System

• The issue of whether, and under what conditions
  fusion could capture a share of the European
  energy market was examined by including fusion
  into the widely used energy models
• MARKAL, and later the TIMES,
• which simulates decisions to invest in and
  utilise energy technologies.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Fusion as a part of the Energy System

• The MARKAL studies showed that the market role of
  fusion in this century would strongly depend on
  the implementation of pollution reduction
  policies.
• Introducing CO2 stabilisation targets into the
  calculations in the form of total emission
  budgets for the time period up to 2100, fusion
  starts entering the picture for target CO2
  concentrations below 650 - 550 ppm.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Fusion as a part of the Energy System

• Can Fusion as an electricity provider be
  flexible?
• It was also found that the optimum way to operate
  at reduced electrical output is to reduce the
  fusion power of the plant by reducing the fuel
  density, rather than its temperature. It is
  envisaged that a reduction in net electrical
  power output by a factor of two is plausible.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Fusion externalities

• The external costs for fusion have been estimated
  to be approximately the same as for renewables
  (e.g. photovoltaics) and lower than fossil fuel
  and nuclear fission technologies.
• these estimates were very preliminary and need to
  be further assessed and more detailed in order to
  get a more comparable estimate.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Fusion externalities

• The comparison of a technology available not
  before 2050 and current technologies is of course
  strongly biased. Progress in various competing
  technologies like coal and fission power plants
  can be envisioned that might reduce their
  external costs considerably.
• Future work is needed to bring this comparison to
  a more equal basis. This future work needs to
  consider both changes in the technologies and the
  underlying source terms and in the affected
  environment

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Public acceptance of Fusion

• Failure to successfully implement risk
  communication programs results often from the
  public distrust shown towards policy-makers,
  civil authorities and industrial plant managers
  due to credibility problems.
• Personal experience of risk has been more and
  more replaced by information about risks and
  individual control over risk by institutional
  risk management.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Public acceptance of Fusion

• There is a generally favourable view of fusion as
  part of the future energy system, although there
  are still apparent deficiencies in the
  information that is reaching the public.
• There is nonetheless an important message for the
  fusion programme, that there remains work to be
  done on providing clear and compelling
  information to the public.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Fusion as a complex system

• Large Technical Systems, are characterized by
  their increased complexity a growing number of
  components, increasing variations in
  interrelations, overlapping subsystems, causation
  becoming less and less clear.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Governance of complex systems

• There is an indisputable link between
  comprehensibility and democracy. The democratic
  form of government rests on two assumptions
• that the average citizen can make up his own mind
  on questions that concern him and his future,
• and that he can foresee the consequences of his
  actions sufficiently well to take responsibility
  for them.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Governance of complex systems

• It is possible that the complications of the
  industrialized and technified society are so
  great, that democratic participation in the
  public decision processes in the long run must
  degenerate to an empty formality of either assent
  to, or protest against, incomprehensible
  alternatives
• von Wright (1988)

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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Governance of complex systems

• Understanding Complex System requires a new
  form of knowledge which is not only technical,
  but where Technical and Social cannot be
  strictly separated.
• We are speaking of the need of eventually a new
  science paradigm capable of dealing with complex
  socio-technical systems, in which ...rather than
  the tell-tale inventor, the system-builder
  becomes the hero of the history.
• The need to enrol other actors and interests to
  system, and the ability to control social as well
  as technical links throughout the system are
  distinctive in this respect.

SERF 1, 2 ,3 Assessment
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SERF Socio-Economic Research on Fusion

• A new research agenda

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A New Research Agenda

• A holistic view for a new scientific framework
  on engineering systems and risk governance
• The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
  interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship
• Promoting public understanding of fusion and
  education of youngsters
• Create an observatory for the socio-economics of
  fusion data collection, analysis and divulgation

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SERF

• Possible Portuguese contributions to the Fusion
  Socio-Economics Programme

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A holistic view for a new scientific framework
on engineering systems and risk governance

• To address these new problems from a fundamental
  and principled way, we need to support the
  development of new Science and Methods that can
  address the problems inherent to large, complex
  systems.
• This new science may be derived under the
  emerging concept of ENGINEERING SYSTEMS, which
  focuses on customers needs throughout the life
  cycle of design, testing, manufacturing,
  installation, operation, monitoring and future
  planning.
• Typically an interdisciplinary approach,
  including quantitative as well as qualitative
  perspectives, is needed to develop a deep
  understanding of the system under study.

A new research agenda
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A holistic view for a new scientific framework
on engineering systems and risk governance

• Engineering Systems integrates technology,
  policy and management in physical and social
  dimensions.
• While it represents an evolution of ideas over
  years, namely as developed at MIT, and now in the
  MIT-Portugal program, it now defines a new
  vision of engineering
• Provides greater value to society

A new research agenda - PT
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A holistic view for a new scientific framework
on engineering systems and risk
governanceEngineering Systems Role

• Role is to provide socially valuable results over
  life of system
• Recognizes that requirements change
• Complete analysis should consider social
  processes that define, implement and use the
  system, as they evolve over time
• Best solutions will integrate technical and
  social components and their evolution
• Thus providing greater expected value

A new research agenda
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A holistic view for a new scientific framework on
engineering systems and risk governance A Vision
for the Fusion System

• First, an image of fusion technology needs to
  be created. The image includes the supposed
  benefits of fusion compared to alternatives,
  across different scenarios.
• Next, a list of relevant appraisal criteria for
  sustainability should be derived. Ideally, this
  should involve stakeholders.
• Thirdly, using this list of criteria, (political)
  sensitivities could be explored in a systematic
  way across scenarios. Again, ideally, this
  exploration should be performed in close
  interaction with stakeholders.

A new research agenda
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The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship
Economics of Fusion

• The direct effect of the purchase and employment,
  which can be evaluated with inputoutput
  analysis.
• Technology spin-off resulting from the
  improvement of technical capability of the
  industry stimulated by the development of new
  knowledge, and this involves research on markets
  and on entrepreneurship.
• Commercial value of Fusion Energy and this
  involves the development of energy models and
  energy scenarios, as those developed under the
  EFDA-TIMES program.

A new research agenda
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The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship
Economic IO

• Considering the aij's as fixed relationships
  between a sector's output and its inputs, and
  constitute the technical coefficients matrix, A
  (Aij). There is an explicit definition of a
  linear relationship between input and output
•  Xi Aij Xj Yi
• The output required from each sector to satisfy
  an increase in demand Y, is quantified by
•  X (I A)-1 . Y
• where (I A)-1 is commonly referred to as the
  Leontief Inverse.

A new research agenda - PT
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The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship
Hybrid EIO-LCA
A new research agenda - PT
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The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
interaction with industry and EntrepreneurshipEne
rgy models

• Modeling of the Portuguese Energy System in TIMES
• Contributing to Energy Technologies Benchmarking

A new research agenda - PT
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The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship
Fusion driven EntrepreneurshipShort term
projects - 1

• Objectives to determine the impact of ITER in
  technology based start-ups, trying to discern
• the value added to the high tech entrepreneur of
  having worked at ITER, compared with other
  entrepreneurs of other technology based start-ups
• the value added to society of ITER start-ups,
  compared with other start-ups, as measured by the
  impact of (new) products or processes introduced
• Objectives to understand technology diffusion
  processes and the gap between public investment
  and technology commercialization by start-ups
  springing from ITER, namely by
• relating the number of start-ups with the
  different technology phases of ITER
• relating the type of start-up with the knowledge
  base developed at ITER

A new research agenda - PT
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The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship
Fusion driven EntrepreneurshipShort term
projects - 2

• Objectives to understand the formation of
  networks and its impact on ITER based start-ups,
  namely
• to what extent does start-up activity reflect the
  joint collaboration on which ITER is based
• Activities required to set up a longitudinal
  database following ITER-inspired start-ups with
  detailed information about founders and human
  resources, products and market performance over
  time, as well as detailing the links (for
  instance, joint funding of research, hiring of
  former ITER researchers) that each start-ups
  maintains with ITER, and when and why has that
  link been established

A new research agenda - PT
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The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship
Fusion driven EntrepreneurshipLong term projects

• Objective to understand the influence of fusion
  based electricity in green energy start-ups
• Objective to understand the influence of fusion
  based electricity power in start-ups for
  delivering new energy sources

A new research agenda - PT
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The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the
interaction with industry Entrepreneurship on
action
The experience of VECTORe Programme at IN/IST
on technology commercialization
A new research agenda - PT
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Promoting public understanding of fusion and
education of youngsters

• Unless more effective action is taken, Europes
  longer term capacity to innovate, and the quality
  of its research will decline. Furthermore, among
  the population in general, the acquisition of
  skills that are becoming essential in all walks
  of life, in a society increasingly dependent on
  the use of knowledge, is also under increasing
  threat.
• This is particularly relevant for Fusion, as it
  is a long term project and, consequently its
  successes will critically depend on the ability
  that we may have now to attract the youngsters to
  science awareness and practice.

Rocard, M., Csermely, P., Jorde D., Lenzen D.,
Walberg-Henriksson H., Hemmo V. (2007) Science
Education now a renewed pedagogy for the future
of Europe. European Commission.
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Promoting public understanding of fusion and
education of youngsters
The experience of IN/IST onfostering the
public understanding of science
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Promoting public understanding of fusion and
education of youngstersResponsibility in
politics the need to improve societal,
industrial and political values for fusion

• Promote the scientific and political ability to
  deal with scientific uncertainty and ignorance to
  reduce mistrust from society, particularly on new
  technological developments
• Understand the dilemmas related with uncertainty
  that arise from nuclear fusion research and its
  further implementation
• From this work there could be a theoretically
  input to understand changes or welcome
  adaptations needed on policy to deal with
  environmental and social problems that per se are
  uncertain.

A new research agenda - PT
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Launching and Observatory for the socio-economics
of fusion the Vision

•   Data collection, analysis and divulgation
  across 5 main topics
• Identification of complex engineering systems and
  risk governance issues, requiring the integration
  of technology, policy and management
• Monitoring the interaction with industry, by
  identifying projects and issues for further
  exploration
• Monitoring the creation of new technology-based
  firms and fostering entrepreneurship across the
  full value chain of fusion technology
• Monitoring the education of youngsters regarding
  fusion science and promoting new project-oriented
  actions in schools
• Monitoring and promoting actions for the public
  understanding of fusion (exhibitions tours TV
  programs seminars, publications)

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Create an observatory for the socio-economics of
fusion data collection, analysis and divulgation