The Status of Human Development and the Millennium Development Goals MDGs

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The Status of Human Development and the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
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Section One Tracing Egypts Human Development
Indicators Dr. Zinat Tobala

• Human Development Index

• Egypt witnessed good progress in the
  performance of HDI since 1995, where it reached
  0.732 in 2006 placing it in the medium human
  category (0.542 in 1993).
• However, this progress has not been consistent
  with the HDI indicators (health, education, and
  income).

• HDI Components

• Life Expectancy Index increased from 0.695 in
  1996 to 0.772 in 2006, which is attributed to the
  improvement in the following indicators since
  2001 until 2006
• Increase in percentage of households with
  access to piped water
• (91.3 to 98.8 urban areas)
• (82.1 to 92.9 rural areas)
• Decrease in the under five mortality rate (per
  1000) (39.1 to 26.4).
• Increase in life expectancy at birth (67.1 to
  71.3 years).

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• Education Index improved from 0.544 in 1995 to
  .0718 in 2006.
• such improvement does not compensate the
  deterioration of some indicators such as 14.7
  of children (6-18 years) have not been enrolled
  in basic education (3 million child) according to
  2006 population census.
• The education sector still needs more reforms
  which requires increasing public expenditure both
  as a percentage of GDP and of total public
  expenditure.

• GDP Related Indicators although it witnessed
  some fluctuations, it started to improve since
  2004 (0.357 in 1993 to 0.681 in 2006).

• The Correlation between HDI and its Components

• Strong correlation between HDI and life
  expectancy index (0.99), education index (0.98),
  and (0.64) for the income index.
• This emphasizes the fact that life expectancy and
  Education indices are the main determinants of
  Human Development status in the underlying period.

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• Disparities between Governorates

HDI has been monitored along the past 10 years on
the governorate level in order to show the
difference in development trends.
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• Port Said , The Top Ranking Governorate

• Port Said Kept its first ranking between
  governorates along the past 10 years, (gt 0.8 in
  1996 and 1997/98 reports), and 0.753 in 2006.
• Highest GDP index, with highest correlation rate
  (0.68).
• Life expectancy at birth 72.3 years.

• Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and Human
  Development

• The high Performance of HDI in the five highest
  ranking governorates has been attributed to the
  improvements in education indicators, while the
  low performance in the five lowest ranking ones
  has been attributed to similar performance in
  health and education indicators.
• Thus, CSOs should play a greater role in
  overcoming health and education problems in those
  governorates.

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Section Two Egypts Progress Towards Achieving
MDGsDr. Hoda Saleh ELnemr

• Egypt has committed to achieve the MDGs by 2015,
  which are mainly related to poverty, hunger,
  health, gender equality, primary education, and
  environmental sustainability .

• Through its plans, programs, and development
  policies, Egypt has worked on achieving the MDGs,
  not only on the national level, but also on the
  local level.

• While Egypt is clearly on track to achieve most
  of the MDGs at the national level, achievement of
  the MDGs in all governorates is less likely.

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• Goal One Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger
• Egypt succeeded in halving the percentage of
  population living under 1 per day.
• On the local level, two governorates met this
  goal, ten (probable), two (possible), and the
  rest are unlikely to achieve it.

• Goal Two Achieve Universal Primary Education
• On the national level, it is unlikely to achieve
  the target ratio of primary enrolment by 2015,
  but it may be close to it (96.7) for both boys
  and girls.
• On the local level, six governorates met the
  goal, three (probable), three (probable for girls
  only), and the rest are unlikely to achieve it.

• Goal three Promote Gender Equality and Empower
  Women
• On the national level, it is expected to achieve
  eliminate the gap between girls and boys in
  primary education, and also at the local level
  (99.7).
• On the local level, three governorates are
  unlikely to eliminate the gap in secondary
  education.

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• Goal Four Reduce Child Mortality
• On the national level, it is expected to achieve
  the target of reducing the ratio of children
  dying before age five, and infant mortality rate
  by two-thirds.
• On the local level, all governorates will
  achieve the two targets, except for Cairo,
  Alexandria, and Port Said.

• Goal Five Improve Maternal Health
• On the national level, it is expected to reduce
  the maternal mortality ratio by three-quarters.
• On the local level, all governorates will
  achieve the goal, except six of them.

• Goal Seven Ensuring Environmental
  Sustainability in Egypt
• On the national level, Egypt succeeded in
  halving the proportion of people without
  sustainable access to safe drinking water.
• The target of halving the proportion of people
  without sustainable access to basic sanitation is
  unlikely to be achieved on both levels, except
  for Cairo, while Port Said and Suez may reach
  close to it.

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• Goal Eight Develop a Global Partnership for
  Development
• Concerning the target of making available the
  benefits of new technologies, especially
  information and communications, still there is
  disparity between governorates.
• The average telephone lines per 1000 households
  reached (339-314) in Beni Suef, Fayoum, and
  Menia, while it reached 1128 in urban
  governorates.
• Concerning ODA, the geographical distribution
  between governorates does not match with local
  development priorities.
• The poorest five governorates with poverty rate
  (33-61) share of ODA directed to reducing
  poverty was (2.2-5.6), while Demiatte with a
  poverty rate of (4.4) share was 2.

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Major Results

• The importance of analyzing the MDGs status on
  the local level is reflected in
• Evaluating the level of improvement on both the
  national and local levels.
• Giving more attention to opportunities and
  priorities of local development programs.
• Effectuating partnerships between the
  government, CSOs, and citizens towards achieving
  the MDGs.

• Governorates starting at a lower level (than
  national average) of indicators are more likely
  to reach better and faster results than those
  starting with higher level of achievement.

• The MDGs are interrelated and mutually
  dependent, meaning that the achievement of one
  MDG is bolstered by achievement of the other
  MDGs.

• This interdependent highlights the need for a
  variety of policy measures implemented in
  parallel to comprehensively address the different
  aspects and exploit synergies.

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Section Three Mapping Where the Poor Live
2006Dr. Ashraf El-araby
Poverty Map Major Results

• Poverty is more concentrated in rural areas
  while 56 of the population lives in these areas,
  more than 78 of the poor and 80 of extreme poor
  lives there.

• Poverty is highly concentrated in Upper Egypt
  while this region represents 25 of total
  population, its share in the extreme poor is
  almost 66. Moreover,, almost 95 of the poorest
  villages are located in Upper Egypt.

• The average poverty rate in the poorest 1000
  villages is 52, while the corresponding figure
  in the poorest 100 is 77.

• 762 villages of the poorest 1000 are located in
  Menia, Suhag, and Assuit whereas 59 villages out
  of the poorest 100 belong to Suhag alone.

• The government has taken these results
  seriously. Several high-level meetings have taken
  place and the Ministries of Economic Development
  and Local Development have been assigned
  officially to prepare an operational plan to
  alleviate poverty in the poorest 100 villages as
  a first stage.

• Providing basic infrastructure, facilitating
  micro credit, food programs, family planning
  services, and illiteracy eradication programs are
  examples of what these villages need.

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• Poverty mapping is just one important step that
  should be followed by similar serious steps to
  guarantee the achievement of the MDG of reducing
  poverty rate to 10 by year 2015.

• In the poorest 1000 villages, almost 5 million
  people live under poverty line, representing 37
  of the total number of absolute poor in Egypt
  (13.6 million).

• This indicates that almost 63 of Egyptian poor
  live outside these villages.

• This highlights the importance of of
  complementing poverty mapping methodology with
  other developmental policies and targeting
  techniques.

• Education and health affect poverty in the
  poorest 100 villages 41 of the people are
  illiterate, where the enrolment ratio (6-18
  years) is about 85. Most of these villages lack
  basic services such as health care centers,
  family planning units, governmental hospitals,
  ambulance centers, police and fire stations, post
  offices, youth clubs, village bank, cinemas, and
  culture centers.

• Higher economic growth is a prerequisite for
  poverty alleviation. Recent information proves
  this income-development nexus with higher income
  growth during the past two year, poverty declined
  from 19.6 in 2004/2005 to almost 155 in
  2006/2007 and unemployment lowered from 11 to
  less than 9 in the two mentioned years,
  repectively.

• Higher growth rate is necessary but not
  sufficient for alleviating poverty.

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Section four Assessing the Governments
Commitment to the 55 ProgramsDr. Ashraf El-araby
New Vision for Egypt
The Human Development Report (HDR) 2005 proposed
a new vision for Egypt until 2015
The HDR recommended 55 specific programs
distributed across eight main sectors poverty,
basic education, health, social security, small
and medium enterprises (SMEs), agriculture, water
and sanitation, and housing and area development.
The HDR estimated the total cost for the
proposed programs at LE 182 billion in constant
prices. Housing program (one third of total
cost), poverty (17), water and sanitation (16),
education and health (13 for each).
We will be focusing in this presentation on
three major programs water and sanitation, basic
education, and SMEs.
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(1) Water and Sanitation

• The program includes 6 sub-programs in the area
  of providing sanitation services, replacing and
  restoring existing water pipes, implementing new
  sanitation projects, and training employees on
  potable water networks maintenance.

The estimated cost of this program is LE 29.5
billion.
The Sixth five year plan has allocated LE 61
billion to projects in water and sanitation. Of
this amount, LE 12 billion is allocated to the
first year 2007/2008.
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(2) Basic Education
The Program includes 24 sub-programs in the field
of basic education, illiteracy eradication, and
vocational training, with a total estimated cost
LE 25 billion.

• Eradicate illiteracy of 10 million people.
• Construction and operation of 3500 schools in
  all levels of education.
• Expand KGs classes to reach an admission rate of
  60.
• Maintenance of 1500 schools.
• Spreading the usage of computers, especially in
  preparatory schools.

The Sixth FYP has allocated LE 8.3 billion to the
Ministry of Education, out of which Le 1.5
billion in the year 2007/2008.
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(3) Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
The Program includes 6 sub-programs in the field
of supporting SMEs, with a total estimated cost
LE 1.1 billion.

• The Sixth FYP includes four programs in this
  regard
• A technical assistance program enhance the
  capacity of local industrial zones, establish
  permanent popular markets, facilitate and support
  the export of SMEs products,..
• An infrastructure program developing SME
  service units in the governorates for the
  registration and issuance of licenses and
  approvals.
• A skills development program includes training
  in production, management, and local and
  international marketing.
• A financing program includes a number of
  micro-lending funds and projects.

The Sixth FYP has allocated LE 8.5 billion to the
SMEs, out of which Le 1.6 billion in the year
2007/2008.
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Indeed.. The government of Egypt has
considerably committed to the recommendations of
the vision of the New Social Contract in HDR 2005.
... But ...
There are several specific projects in each
program that were not directly and clearly
integrated in the official documents of the FYP,
The roles of different partners (the government,
CSOs, NGOs, private sector) should be clearly
specified in order to better guarantee
achievement the ultimate goals of the New Social
Contract.
... However ...
Merely allocating investments to programs and
projects is not enough to guarantee realization
of the stated targets. A comprehensive approach
of periodical monitoring and evaluation must be
devised in order to assess the developmental
impact of these projects and allocations.
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Thank You