Climate Change and its Impact on Food and Agriculture

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Climate Change and its Impact on Food and
Agriculture

• Lim Li Ching,
• Third World Network

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Climate change - What the science says

• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
• Warming of climate system is unequivocal 0.74C
  rise from 1906-2005
• Most of the observed increase due to
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
• Warming by end of 21st century will be worse than
  expected projected rise of 1.8-4C (best
  estimate likely range 1.1-6.4C)
• Total sea level rise in 20th century is 17cm,
  projected sea level rise by end 21st century
  ranges from 18-59cm

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Climate injustice

• With only 4 of the world population, the US
  accounts for more emissions (30.3) than 136
  developing countries that together are
  responsible for about 24 of all emissions
• 20 of the worlds richest populations are
  responsible for over 60 of current emissions if
  past contributions taken into account, 80
• Billions of the worlds poorest will be impacted
  most by climate change - those who are least
  responsible for the problem are paying the price
• Some developed countries failing to meet targets
  for emissions reduction, while US has refused to
  ratify Kyoto Protocol

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200 million climate refugees by 2050
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Impacts of climate change on agriculture

• Moderate local warming (1-3C) means slightly
  increased yields in mid- to high-latitudes,
  depending on crop
• Even small local temperature increases (1- 2C)
  would decrease yields in low-latitudes,
  especially in tropical and seasonally dry areas,
  which would increase risk of hunger
• Further warming of gt3C has increasingly negative
  impacts global food production is projected to
  decrease

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Impacts of climate change on agriculture

• Projected that crop yields could increase up to
  20 in East and South-East Asia, but could
  decrease up to 30 in Central and South Asia by
  mid-21st century
• Taken together, and considering the influence of
  rapid population growth and urbanisation, the
  risk of hunger projected to remain very high in
  several Asian developing countries

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Impacts of climate change on agriculture

• Freshwater availability in Central, South, East
  and South-East Asia, particularly in large river
  basins, is projected to decrease could adversely
  affect more than a billion people by the 2050s
• Climate change projected by mid-century to reduce
  water resources in many small islands, to the
  point where they become insufficient to meet
  demand during low-rainfall periods

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Impacts of climate change on agriculture

• Heat waves very likely to lead to reduced yields
  in warmer environments due to heat stress
• Heavy precipitation linked to damage of crops,
  soil erosion, waterlogging of soils
• More areas affected by drought, resulting in land
  degradation, lower yields/crop damage or failure
• Extreme high sea level events likely to lead to
  salinisation of water bodies
• Possible increase in pest and disease
  infestations due to warming temperatures

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Who are the most vulnerable?

• All countries affected by climate change, but
  poorest countries and populations will suffer
  earlier and most, even though contributed the
  least to the causes of climate change
• Increased frequency of droughts and floods will
  affect crop production negatively, especially in
  subsistence sectors
• Smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists
  and artisanal fisherfolk will suffer complex,
  localised impacts of climate change

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Agriculture contributes to climate change

• Agriculture releases significant amount of
  CO2,CH4 and N2O - estimated 5.1 to 6.1
  GtCO2-eq/yr in 2005 (10-12 of global
  anthropogenic GHG emissions)
• Including indirect contributions (e.g. land
  conversion to agriculture, fertilizer production,
  distribution and farm operations) -gt 17-32 of
  global emissions
• Agricultural N2O emissions projected to increase
  by 35-60 up to 2030 due to increased N
  fertilizer use and animal manure production

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Climate change challenge for agriculture

• Increased variability, extreme weather events
• Potential to irreversibly damage agricultural
  resource base and lead to food insecurity
• Can farmers and farming adapt?
• Agriculture contributes 10-12 of anthropogenic
  GHG emissions
• Can agriculture reduce its emissions?

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What kind of agriculture?

• International Assessment of Agricultural
  Knowledge, Science Technology for Development
  (IAASTD) 2008
• Business-as-usual is no longer an option
• High yields and production with industrial
  farming, high external inputs and high energy
  consumption
• BUT costs to environment and social equity
• Radical overhaul of agricultural policy and
  practice urgently needed

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IAASTD Some key findings

• Agriculture involves more than yields there are
  multiple social, political, cultural,
  institutional and environmental impacts
• The future of agriculture lies in biodiverse,
  agroecologically based farming that can meet
  social, economic and environmental goals
• Reliance on resource-extractive industrial
  agriculture is unsustainable, particularly in the
  face of worsening climate, energy and water crises

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IAASTD Some key findings

• Short-term technical fixes, including GM crops,
  cannot adequately address the complex challenges
  facing agriculture, and often exacerbate social
  and environmental harms
• Achieving food security and sustainable
  livelihoods requires ensuring access to and
  control of resources by small-scale farmers,
  especially women
• Fair local, regional and global trading regimes
  can build local economies, reduce poverty and
  improve livelihoods

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IAASTD Some key findings

• Strengthening the human and ecological resilience
  of agricultural systems improves our capacity to
  respond to changing environmental and social
  stresses
• Indigenous knowledge and community-based
  innovations are invaluable part of the solution
• Need to build better governance mechanisms and
  ensure democratic participation by the full range
  of stakeholders

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Ecological agriculture and climate change
adaptation

• Application of farmers skills and knowledge
• Key to adaptation to manage complex
  agroecosystems, breeding locally adapted seed and
  livestock, producing on-farm fertilizers, etc.
• Increased soil fertility and increased organic
  matter via compost, manures, cover crops etc
• Reduces negative effects of drought, while
  increasing crop productivity
• Enhancement of soil water-holding capacity,
  resilience under unpredictable climatic
  conditions
• Higher water capture during torrential rains,
  reducing risks of floods

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Ecological agriculture and climate change
adaptation

• High degree of diversity -gt risk aversion
• Respond better to change, pest and diseases
• Multiple cropping or polyculture systems
• Greater yield stability and less productivity
  declines during drought
• Use of traditional and locally-adapted drought
  and heat-tolerant varieties and species
• Agroforestry systems and mulching
• Protect crops against extremes, inhibit moisture
  loss, reduce heat stress

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Ecological agriculture and climate change
mitigation

• Building up carbon in the soil
• E.g. legumes, crop residues, cover crops, compost
• Enhanced soil fertility stabilizes soil organic
  matter, may sequester carbon dioxide
• Reduced soil erosion (impt. source of CO2 losses)
• Using less synthetic external inputs
• Production of N fertilizers energy intensive,
  account for 0.6-1.2 of global emissions
• Reduced concentration of easily available mineral
  N in soils, less N2O emissions
• Recycling N using manures N-fixing plants
• Agroforestry and restoring degraded land

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Is ecological agriculture productive?

• Badgley et al. (2007) examined global dataset of
  293 examples
• Organic yields comparable to conventional in
  developed countries
• Organic produced 92 of yield of conventional
• Organic practices greatly increase yields in
  developing countries, especially if existing
  system is low input
• Organic produced 180 of yield of conventional
• Organic can produce enough food on global per
  capita basis to sustain current human population

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Examples of yield increases

• Review of 286 projects in 57 countries (Pretty et
  al., 2006)
• Yields rose on average 79
• Review of 89 projects for which yield data
  available (Pretty Hine, 2001)
• Yields rose 50-100 for rain-fed crops
• Yields rose 5-10 for irrigated crops
• Average food production per household rose by 73
  for small farmers growing cereals roots

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Mainstreaming ecological agriculture

• Based on locally available resources, appropriate
  technologies and specific needs of farmers
• Systematic redirection in investment, funding,
  research, training and policy focus on ecological
  agriculture needed
• Overall support needed from governments and
  international agencies
• Ensure participation of farmers and producers in
  agricultural decision- and policy-making

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Action on adaptation and mitigation in agriculture

• More research and action on adaptation measures
  in agriculture, especially in developing
  countries, in order to assist farmers
• Action plans for mitigation measures for
  agriculture should be urgently researched and
  implemented
• Prioritize financing assistance for climate
  adaptation and mitigation measures in the
  agriculture sector in developing countries
• Arrangements for sharing of experiences and
  transfer of good practices in agriculture that
  can constitute mitigation and adaptation

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Climate justice now!

• A fair global deal - based on equity and
  principles of burden-sharing, and common but
  differentiated responsibilities between the North
  and South to establish science-based targets
• Huge and deep cuts needed for the North
• There needs to be environmental space for
  sustainable development in the South
• Differentiated approach justified as developed
  countries bear historical responsibility, are
  largest emitters (especially on per capita basis)
  and have financial and technological resources
• Finances and technology transfer to the South
• Repay the climate debt

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Third World Network www.twnside.org.sgTWN
Information Service on Sustainable
AgricultureTWN Information Service on Climate
Change

• Thank you!